danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Aye, but only by resorting to Wikipedia.... but if it was, I'd have won
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
andysays
Love and solidarity
andysays
Love and solidarity
Potential for a Guy Fawkes-based campaign from someone then...
Think it was the LDs for Oldham East & Saddleworth
What ward was if? If it was in the East of the borough it's one of the worse far-left results there for a long time
andysays
Love and solidarity
It was Woodside. Have a look at this.
And here is the result for that ward in May
Doesn't look like TUSC have done that much worse now compared to then. They have done significantly better in other wards further east though, including mine.
And here is the result for that ward in May
Doesn't look like TUSC have done that much worse now compared to then. They have done significantly better in other wards further east though, including mine.
miktheword
Well-Known Member
Research saying UKIP could have more influence in marginal than maybe thought...methodology may need looking at, defines 'marginals' as 20 point gap..not sure how this matches up with those seats ever changing hands...
http://www.theguardian.com/news/dat...f-more-than-200-seats-at-the-general-election
Seats at direct "risk" from Ukip
Predictably, the Conservatives were the most at risk from the Ukip threat, with 111 marginal seats affected by the Ukip surge. The gap, though, was not large: Labour have 83 target seats at stake with Ukip as a complicating factor.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/dat...f-more-than-200-seats-at-the-general-election
Seats at direct "risk" from Ukip
Predictably, the Conservatives were the most at risk from the Ukip threat, with 111 marginal seats affected by the Ukip surge. The gap, though, was not large: Labour have 83 target seats at stake with Ukip as a complicating factor.
From UKPR, polls in the last week:
Ashcroft – CON 32%(+5), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 17%(nc), GRN 4%(-2)
Populus – CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
ComRes/Indy – CON 29%(+1), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 15%(-2)
YouGov/Sun – CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
I'd say post conference bounce, it'll go back in a week or two
There's some interesting Ashcroft LD marginal polling, not sure if it was mentioned here. Shows them with varying success in LD/Tory marginals (ahead in SUtton & Cheam, Eastleigh and Eastbourne; behind in Chippenham, Somerton & Frome, Taunton and Berwick). LD/Labour marginals are all going Labour atm with fairly large swings - he polled Redcar, Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green and Cardiff Central, with only Bermondsey & Old Southwark showing a small LD lead
andysays
Love and solidarity
Thanks.
So there has been a generalish swing towards the Tories, but the one I linked to in the Guardian is the only one which gives the Tories a lead. Why have they chosen to only mention that one, I wonder?
As you say, likely a post-conference blip, rather than definite indication of anything more permanent.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It was the Sun not the guardian. But pretty meaningless in itself. No swing trend to tory. 3-4% lead solid.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It's a YG/Sun daily poll. They do them daily, YG, for the SUN.
What paper was it for?
andysays
Love and solidarity
Most Guardian writers/editors dream, indeed fantasise (and deeply infuriatingly), about a hung Parliament. Tongues so far up the LibDems' fundaments that it blocks their view of reality.
One or two of their readers prefer to read and analyse Ashcroft and other polls properly
Last edited:
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Most Guardian writers/editors dream, indeed fantasise (and deeply infuriatingly), about a hung Parliament. Tongues so far up the LibDems' fundemants that it blocks their view of reality.
One or two of their readers prefer to read and analyse Ashcroft and other polls properly
Most people who exclusively read the Guardian must think a hung Parliament and Lib/Lab coalition is virtually guaranteed. That's all they've been printing for the last four years.
Looking forward to the Guardian's sad efforts to 'analyse' the imminent steamrollering of the Lib Dems 
Time for a not very recently used pic ....
Time for a not very recently used pic ....
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Key word in that post from goldenecitrone is 'exclusively' though
I do think the Libdems will hang on to more seats than some people are making out - about 25 - 35 probably. This is due to the fact that they do have a core vote, plus there is an incumbency factor for their "better" MPs.
The interesting thing with regards to the Libdems in 2015 will be to see their further hollowing out and reduction in relevancy across huge swathes of the country. They will once again become a party of the South West and Scotland with only a few diminishing pockets elsewhere.
so their national vote will be tiny but they will be saved by FPTP
The interesting thing with regards to the Libdems in 2015 will be to see their further hollowing out and reduction in relevancy across huge swathes of the country. They will once again become a party of the South West and Scotland with only a few diminishing pockets elsewhere.
so their national vote will be tiny but they will be saved by FPTP
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I don't think they'll have much left in Scotland, they were already losing some ground to the SNP and since 2010 they've been hit hard and the polling in the aftermath of the referendum shows the SNP vote going up at their expense. They'll hang on in the Islands but what once was one of their Heartlands won't be for that much longer.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I will be betting on them to hold Stockport west or whatever it is round here .
Why? Most of Scotland rejected independence, and where they are the incumbent party, they'll likely pick up a lot of 'stop the SNP' votes.
Similar threads
