Political polling

[butchersapron]

Have you actually seen the lib dem polling results in Scotland¿

 

[danny la rouge]

Have you actually seen the lib dem polling results in Scotland¿

Ole!

 

[butchersapron]

Not sure how that happened there.

 

[JTG]

Survation's polling for Reckless' Rochester & Strood by-election looks like it'll be an interesting tussle between the parties of the right...

particularly when the 2010 "no-shows" are statistically discounted...

Not one to put yer money on.

Does this indicate that much of the Labour/Tory vote is pre-existing support who turned out in 2010 with a large chunk of UKIP's being 2010 no shows?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Why? Most of Scotland rejected independence, and where they are the incumbent party, they'll likely pick up a lot of 'stop the SNP' votes.

You can dress as a penguin and piss on them in Edinburgh.

E2A Gordon is the only Liberal seat with SNP in second place.

 

[Quartz]

E2A Gordon is the only Liberal seat with SNP in second place.

I think that they might get a boost in those seats where the SNP is in lower positions too on the basis that the SNP will score more votes and splitting the anti-SNP vote might let the SNP through.

 

[redsquirrel]

Why? Most of Scotland rejected independence, and where they are the incumbent party, they'll likely pick up a lot of 'stop the SNP' votes.

That's as daft as the argument that a lot of YES voters are forever broken from the Labour party. There are plenty of NO voters who vote for the SNP for a variety of reasons, the 2011 Holyrood elections clearly showed that and the post-Referendum polls show the LD vote down and SNP vote up.

 

[ferrelhadley]

I think that they might get a boost in those seats where the SNP is in lower positions too on the basis that the SNP will score more votes and splitting the anti-SNP vote might let the SNP through.

Name the seat you think the whig dems will increase their vote.

 

[brogdale]

Does this indicate that much of the Labour/Tory vote is pre-existing support who turned out in 2010 with a large chunk of UKIP's being 2010 no shows?

Yeah, cos Reckless was swivel-eyed enough that the 'kippers declined to stand a candidate against him in 2010.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's national poll today shows just how shite NuLabour are....coming second to the vermin government ffs...not that the scum can 'win' with such a low %.

Third vermin lead in a row.

 

[brogdale]

This is so psephologically ignorant it's genius...

 

[brogdale]

The Populus (national) published yesterday offered some contrast to Ashcroft's...

Populus and Lord Ashcroft have both published new polls today. Lord Ashcroft’s poll echoes YouGov’s post conference polls in showing a small Tory lead :–

CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% (tabshere).

In contrast today’s Populus poll still shows a robust Labour lead, as did their Friday poll :–

CON 31%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15% (tabs here).

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcofts's national VI polling has been so volatile that i'm sceptical. YG's post cameron speech tory bounce is more trusthworthy i think.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's Heywood/Midleton by poll...

Lord Ashcroft also conducted A poll on the forthcoming Heywood and Middleton by-election. Topline figuresthere are:-

CON 16%(-11), LAB 47%(+7), LDEM 5%(-18), UKIP 28%(+25).

While Labour and UKIP are both a little lower than in the previous Survation poll the nineteen point lead is exactly the same, and it looks like we can expect a comfortable Labour hold.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcofts's national VI polling has been so volatile that i'm scaptical. YG's post cameron speech tory bounce is more trusthworthy i think.

Do you know if he, or anyone else, has graphed the output over time?

 

[butchersapron]

Do you know if he, or anyone else, has graphed the output over time?

I expect so - i'll have a look in a bit. Not had much time to keep up with last couple of weeks detailed polling myself.

 

[where to]

The Greens. Seems to be nobody talking about them but those numbers are starting to look significant.

 

[redsquirrel]

They're not, even if they get something like that in the Election it won't translate into seats. Indeed they are probably going to lose the seat they do have.

 

[killer b]

The Greens. Seems to be nobody talking about them but those numbers are starting to look significant.

bless.

 

[brogdale]

This YG polling could have gone in any number of threads...but here'll do....

new YouGov research with the Times Red Box reveals that the British people have serious doubts about the Lib Dems’ future as a viable political party, let alone their role in a coalition if there is a hung parliament after next year’s election.

48% of the public expect the Lib Dems to fade away as a force in British politics within the next 10 years; 25% believe the party is here to stay.

In the same survey 8% of respondents expressed an intention to vote Lib Dem, and three-quarters of these voters are confident the party will be relevant in 2025. The rest are split evenly between those who aren’t sure or express doubts.

The latest numbers bear a striking contrast with the public mood about the rise of UKIP. During that party’s conference in Doncaster two weeks ago, YouGov revealed that

48% expect UKIP to stick around, and only 36% think the party will fade away.

 

[brogdale]

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: big respite for nervous Ed Miliband as Labour regain the lead, for now at least.

LAB 34%, CON 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 8%.

Source

 

[butchersapron]

Back to normal is my expectation now. New Polling observatory out today as well - just missed the cameron 3 day bounce though. Their monthly average is:

Lab 34.4%
Con 30.1%
UKIP 15.3%
Lib Dems 8.3%

 

[brogdale]

Back to normal is my expectation now. New Polling observatory out today as well - just missed the cameron 3 day bounce though. Their monthly average is:

Lab 34.4%
Con 30.1%
UKIP 15.3%
Lib Dems 8.3%

Yes, but I'd expect to see some UKIP 'bounce' following the heightened news profile resulting from the election of their first MP.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, but I'd expect to see some UKIP 'bounce' following the heightened news profile resulting from the election of their first MP.

Yep - and at expense of tories.

 

[Dogsauce]

UKIP would also benefit from it looking like the tories can't win, in that the battier tories will see no reason not to vote UKIP as it won't make a difference and they have nothing to lose. A closer contest won't help them, the 'avoid labour at any cost' voters will go back to the fold if they have a chance (though Labour supporters would do the same). A bit like how they've closed out Nader from the US presidentials. Depends how much voters think 'strategically' these days.

 

[brogdale]

UKIP would also benefit from it looking like the tories can't win, in that the battier tories will see no reason not to vote UKIP as it won't make a difference and they have nothing to lose. A closer contest won't help them, the 'avoid labour at any cost' voters will go back to the fold if they have a chance (though Labour supporters would do the same). A bit like how they've closed out Nader from the US presidentials. Depends how much voters think 'strategically' these days.

tbh I think a large number of those bothered to engage struggle with tactical implications, let alone strategy.

 

[treelover]

Labour has decided not to run a serious campaign in the Rochester and Strood by-election. Instead, the party will run a token effort, just as they did in Newark, and just as they are currently doing in Clacton. -

See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/labour-rochester/4459#sthash.3FLTsr4U.dpuf

Labour not to seriously fight for Rochester?

Con (Reckless) 23,604 (49 per cent)
Lab 13,651 (28.5 per cent)
Lib Dem 7,800 (16 per cent)
Eng Dem 2,182 (4.5 per cent)
Green 734 (1.5 per cent) -


yet they had a decent vote last time.

 

[butchersapron]

Labour not to seriously fight for Rochester?

Not sure i trust Crick's instincts alone - not after his confident scotland will vote YES. I'd like to see some actual evidence.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Labour not to stand in Rochester?

it explicitly says they will be standing??

ETA: arrgh he keeps editing the same post. Make new ones!

 

[butchersapron]

it explicitly says they will be standing??

Yeah, i thought he had changed his post!