Political polling

[butchersapron]

That they will get 56% of those that vote, that's an incredible number.

Of course it's possible. It's the seat with the most favourable demographics in the country, a popular candidate who has already won the seat once with a large majority, and with the national party with the wind in its sails.

The question i'm interested in though is, is there anything at all which you don't see as a damning indictment of the left? And why is this a damning indictment of 'uk politics' - this is how safe non-threatening rebellions always happen.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

The question i'm interested in though is, is there anything at all which you don't see as a damning indictment of the left? And why is this a damning indictment of 'uk politics' - this is how safe non-threatening rebellions always happen.

Since he doesn't answer questions I will answer for him, the only things that are not damning indictments are the latest big announcement from big exciting new campaigns in which case they're the best thing ever until a few weeks later when they join the ranks of the indictments.

 

[brogdale]

By-election for Heywood and Middleton.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/jim-dobbin-labour-mp-heywood-middleton-dies

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft and Populus today

Ashcroft:

LAB - 35% (+2)
CON - 28% (-2)
UKIP - 18% (=)
LDEM - 8% (=)
GRN - 6% (=)

Populus:

Lab 36 (-2)
Con 34 (+2)
LD 9 (+1)
UKIP 12 (-2)

 

[butchersapron]

Mega ashcroft poll at 2- 8000 surveyed. Normal size for national polls is 1000. This is national, and marginals and ex-tories and loads of other interesting stuff apparently.I shall be in the pub and watching the golf, so don't expect any analysis from me straight off.

 

[brogdale]

Mega ashcroft poll at 2- 8000 surveyed. Normal size for national polls is 1000. This is national, and marginals and ex-tories and loads of other interesting stuff apparently.I shall be in the pub and watching the golf, so don't expect any analysis from me straight off.

At first glance...

Since the 7th of May 2010 it has been clear that to win a majority, or probably even to remain the largest party, the Conservatives are going to need more votes at the next election than they received at the last one.

And...

Next we come to the Defectors – who unfortunately rather outnumber the Joiners. Only 63% of those who voted Conservative in 2010 say they would do so again tomorrow.

Wow

 

[William of Walworth]

There's plenty of seriously unwelcome news for the Tories in Ashcroft's latest.

 

[butchersapron]

Kellner piece on potential small party outcomes of GE 2015 - suggest 10 UKIP and 25 SNP is a possibility. I think he may well be making the mistake that i think others are making - of just adding past referendum YES votes from labour supporters seamlessly onto the existing SNP vote.

 

[andysays]

Kellner piece on potential small party outcomes of GE 2015 - suggest 10 UKIP and 25 SNP is a possibility. I think he may well be making the mistake that i think others are making - of just adding past referendum YES votes from labour supporters seamlessly onto the existing SNP vote.

There was a similar piece from him in yesterday's Guardian.

I didn't read it as saying the hypothetical outcome (10 UKIP, 25 SNP, LD 30 and, crucially, Lab and Con very close) was likely, but that if all those factors did come together, it would give a situation where a multi-party coalition was needed. It's interesting, if at all, as a mathematical exercise.

But one thing it does suggest to me is that with five parties competing for seats, there are increasingly complex possible outcomes and it becomes more difficult to translate nationwide polling into numbers of seats (which is why the more focussed polling is important)

 

[bemused]

But one thing it does suggest to me is that with five parties competing for seats[..]

Do you think this is because the two major parties have become increasingly generic?

UK politics depresses me, they've managed to strip all the powers away from the only group I cared about when I voted - local councilors - and now the major parties are two sides of the same coin. There is no real choice at the national level and the impact of your vote at a local level has been diminished to the point that it's meaningless.

Personally I tell people I vote for UKIP just because I like the confused look on their face - in reality the Tory vote is weighed here and any contradictory vote doesn't count anyway.

Before people get too excited about a UKIP vote I generally vote for any independent on the sheet.

 

[Dogsauce]

Could potentially be more SNP (and labour) in Scotland if the lib dem vote collapses, though I think some of the polling has shown it holding up better than expected where they have seats, it's the shifting of that vote to labour in other seats that'll fuck the tories. Depends whether UKIP targetting the Labour vote will offset some of the gains they get from disillusioned liberals.

 

[The39thStep]

Get all your money on UKIP getting 10-15% of the vote in the GE

 

[butchersapron]

Heywood and Middleton by election polling from survation:

Heywood & Middleton poll
LAB - 50%
UKIP - 31%
CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%

2010 election was:
Labour 40.1
Conservative 27.2
LD 22.7
UKIP 2.6

So massive tory/lib-dem shift to UKIP - and smaller lib-dem-->labour shift.

 

[chilango]

Heywood and Middleton by election polling from survation:

Heywood & Middleton poll
LAB - 50%
UKIP - 31%
CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%

2010 election was:
Labour 40.1
Conservative 27.2
LD 22.7
UKIP 2.6

So massive tory/lib-dem shift to UKIP - and smaller lib-dem-->labour shift.

A LibDem lost deposit would be nice.

 

[Santino]

Does LD stand for Lost Deposit?

 

[Dogsauce]

Heywood and Middleton by election polling from survation:

Heywood & Middleton poll
LAB - 50%
UKIP - 31%
CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%

2010 election was:
Labour 40.1
Conservative 27.2
LD 22.7
UKIP 2.6

So massive tory/lib-dem shift to UKIP - and smaller lib-dem-->labour shift.

Could it also be a big LD shift to labour, and a fairly big labour shift to UKIP partly offsetting this? I'd imagine the LD-UKIP transition would be less likely than Labour-UKIP, what with their 'base' being Guardian Reader types.

 

[William of Walworth]

I take it the Heywood and Middleton byelection is the same Thursday as Clacton -- October 9.

To me that poll, if at all accurate, means that some earlier media hype about UKIP's chances of actually gaining that seat in Manchester was utter cobblers ...

 

[The39thStep]

I see TUSC got a very creditable 1% in the Harringay council by election

 

[The39thStep]

I take it the Heywood and Middleton byelection is the same Thursday as Clacton -- October 9.

To me that poll, if at all accurate, means that some earlier media hype about UKIP's chances of actually gaining that seat in Manchester is utter cobblers ...

I think that was labour talking up ukips challenge tbh.

 

[William of Walworth]

Could very well have been, true ....

 

[butchersapron]

Could it also be a big LD shift to labour, and a fairly big labour shift to UKIP partly offsetting this? I'd imagine the LD-UKIP transition would be less likely than Labour-UKIP, what with their 'base' being Guardian Reader types.

Could be, but i see it more like the wythenshawe by-election where a similar labour vote in the 40s went back to a previous vote in ther 50s whilst UKIP hoovered up lib-dems and tories. Ex-labour voters are coming back in these seats.

 

[JTG]

Could it also be a big LD shift to labour, and a fairly big labour shift to UKIP partly offsetting this? I'd imagine the LD-UKIP transition would be less likely than Labour-UKIP, what with their 'base' being Guardian Reader types.

I dunno, the make up of the LD vote can be curious. Plenty of people voting for them in the past who were a long way from the Guardian liberal types

 

[Dogsauce]

I dunno, the make up of the LD vote can be curious. Plenty of people voting for them in the past who were a long way from the Guardian liberal types

True, in some cases they've done well with strong local candidates who've reached out across the political spectrum (probably by appearing in the local press standing next to things and looking concerned), and UKIP I think has similar appeal in some places (against a background of the parachuting of candidates by the two big parties).

No polls for Strood yet? I hear rumours the tories are going to throw everything at that to try and keep it. UKIP are favourite with the bookies.

 

[butchersapron]

The tories have to throw everything at it to cut UKIP off at the pass. I think they'll win that one. Last time i looked around from 15-20% of 2010 lib-dems say they're voting UKIP iirc.

 

[andysays]

I realise the actual date hasn't been set yet, but when is the Strood by-election likely to be?

ETA: and who gets to "call" it? Is it the Tories because they won it last time, or UKIP because their (new) man is resigning, or does it work according to guidelines uncontrolled by one party or another?

 

[butchersapron]

I realise the actual date hasn't been set yet, but when is the Strood by-election likely to be?

ETA: and who gets to "call" it? Is it the Tories because they won it last time, or UKIP because their (new) man is resigning, or does it work according to guidelines uncontrolled by one party or another?

Convention says the tories - but there is no set rule. Labour i think (def one party) moved one when they shouldn't have at some point in this parliament. Nov 6th i think fav.

 

[andysays]

Convention says the tories - but there is no set rule. Labour i think (def one party) moved one when they shouldn't have at some point in this parliament. Nov 6th i think fav.

Thanks. I've just come across this, which suggests you're right about convention, but that potentially any MP can call it*.

It also says the date of the by election is determined by the date the writ is moved, but doesn't say how long after it will be.

at self for relying on wikipedia

ETA * UKIP don't have any MPs ATM, though they may do soon...

 

[danny la rouge]

I realise the actual date hasn't been set yet, but when is the Strood by-election likely to be?

ETA: and who gets to "call" it? Is it the Tories because they won it last time, or UKIP because their (new) man is resigning, or does it work according to guidelines uncontrolled by one party or another?

The Chief Whip of the Party who held the seat last traditionally "moves the Writ", as it's called. But as Butchers says, that's only a convention and others have usurped it in the past.

 

[danny la rouge]

Thanks. I've just come across this, which suggests you're right about convention, but that potentially any MP can call it.

You beat me.

 

[andysays]

You beat me.

That's OK, it's not a race...



... but if it was, I'd have won