Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
OK, sorry. Belatedly realising ... 
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
jesus
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Well that's fucking shit. 68. Fucks sake.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Pretty much. If the lead tightens down to 7 or so, then that's back in shoogly-peg territory.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
68 though. Was hoping the tories were piling up votes in safe seats.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
No LD/CON marginals left? I can't think of the name of one to have a look.
silver linings.
The model currently shows none of the MPs who have defected to the Lib Dems in recent months winning the seats in which they are standing. Among the defectors from the Conservatives, Sarah Wollaston is 19 points behind in Totnes, Antoinette Sandbach is trailing by 33 points in Eddisbury, Philip Lee is behind by 10 points in Wokingham, and Sam Gyimah is 8 points down in Kensington.
The three Labour defectors are also struggling. Chuka Umunna is 13 points behind in Cities of London and Westminster, Luciana Berger is 18 points behind in Finchley and Golders Green, and Angela Smith is trailing by 34 points in Altrincham and Sale West.
The model currently shows none of the MPs who have defected to the Lib Dems in recent months winning the seats in which they are standing. Among the defectors from the Conservatives, Sarah Wollaston is 19 points behind in Totnes, Antoinette Sandbach is trailing by 33 points in Eddisbury, Philip Lee is behind by 10 points in Wokingham, and Sam Gyimah is 8 points down in Kensington.
The three Labour defectors are also struggling. Chuka Umunna is 13 points behind in Cities of London and Westminster, Luciana Berger is 18 points behind in Finchley and Golders Green, and Angela Smith is trailing by 34 points in Altrincham and Sale West.
there's a CSV file here with all the seat estimates: https://t.co/dmV7wfujAR?amp=1
Hollis
bloody furious
That's not true for all constituences... there are still some where if people vote tactically it'll mean one less Tory - e.g. South Cambs.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
True, but the PVs are dropping now (our constituency dropped on Monday) and they could = up to 25% of turn-out this time around.
Azrael
circling Airstrip One
Given British and America election results in 2016 (let alone the 2017 general), I wouldn't even call it straw-clutching. Polls can only go on previous elections. Unweighted polls already show Lab and Con neck-and-neck, leaving us with a solidly hung parliament. If younger demographics turn out in sufficient numbers, weighting's out and the polls are void. Still all to play for.
Surely the whole point of weighting is that it takes into account turnout?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep, but I'd think that Labour are presently quite pleased to have a real fear factor to motivate those newly registered youngsters to actually get down to the polling stations.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Predicted turn-out.
Azrael
circling Airstrip One
Exactly. One polling prediction kicking around Twitter was +90% turnout for the oldest voters and -20% for the youngest. If that's bourne out then of course, we're in solid Tory majority territory. But given the surge of voter registrations, there's every reason to suppose that it won't be.
Yes I thought that went without saying. They can’t know it (hence it being a prediction) but they can guesstimate it based on their research. I think most pollsters ask if you’re going to vote as well as who you’re going to vote for and then factor that into their final numbers.
Presumably this includes factoring in voter registration and the likelihood of those new voters actually getting off their arses.
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