Political polling

[Azrael]

Or not even that, if they've a postal vote. Anyone making the effort to register's at least seriously considering making their mark, and Labour's got a solid ground game of highly motivated activists doing all they can to get the vote out.

 

[Hollis]

Based on pissing around with the spreadsheet here are the Tory/Lab marginals...

Tory/Lab/LD
Keighley 43 42 6
Dewsbury 42 41 6
Workington 41 40 6
Bedford 40 39 11
Leigh 40 39 7
West Bromwich East 40 39 7
Stoke-on-Trent Central 40 39 5
Darlington 43 41 6
Vale of Clwyd 43 41 6
Clwyd South 43 41 6
Scunthorpe 42 40 6
Dagenham and Rainham 40 38 7
Hendon 43 40 14
Bury South 43 40 7
Warwick and Leamington 42 39 12
West Bromwich West 41 38 6
Stroud 47 43 0
Warrington South 45 41 9
Crewe and Nantwich 43 39 8
Ipswich 43 39 7
Peterborough 43 39 6
Hyndburn 43 39 5
Wolverhampton North East 43 39 5
Wrexham 42 38 6
Bolsover 42 38 5
Putney 38 34 23

 

[Hollis]

And here are some Tory/LibDem marginals

constituency Con Lab LD
South Cambridgeshire 42 17 40
Winchester 47 7 44
Cheadle 47 11 42
Guildford 44 9 39
Lewes 47 8 41
North Norfolk 46 7 40
St Ives 46 10 40
Kensington 37 26 29
Hazel Grove 48 13 39
Eastbourne 48 8 38
Wokingham 46 12 36
Wells 51 8 40
Esher and Walton 49 11 38
Chelsea and Fulham 43 23 32

 

[Hollis]

So basically in noddy land, if everyone voted tactically there's 40+ marginals up for grabs..

 

[treelover]

Bolsover, Tory, Stoke on Trent Central, Tory, Wrexham, Tory, how has this happened?

 

[gawkrodger]

Wolves SW is a Lab/Tory marginal

 

[Proper Tidy]

Bolsover, Tory, Stoke on Trent Central, Tory, Wrexham, Tory, how has this happened?

Find it striking that wrexham (historically one of safest labour seats) & ynys mon (plaid in '97 and plaid always close 2nd until last GE when tories got a 100 votes more, labour majority of 5k) predicted to go tory while cardiff north - mostly middle class, flipped between tory and labour for both westminster and senedd - predicted to stay labour (gain in 2017) according to yougov mrp

 

[belboid]

ynys mon (plaid in '97 and plaid always close 2nd until last GE when tories got a 100 votes more, labour majority of 5k) predicted to go tory

ynys mon is, along with east dunbartonshire, the only seat to have elected a labour, a tory a liberal, and a nationalist MP. [/saddo]

 

[Marty1]

MRP poll predicts a Conservative win of 359 seats.

Election poll: Boris Johnson heads for big majority — The Times and The Sunday Times

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, the YouGov MRP headline figure is 359 seats for the Tories, however the margin of error is interesting...

Taking into account the margins of error, our model puts the number of Conservative seats at between 328 and 385, meaning that while we can be confident that the Conservatives would currently get a majority, it could range from a modest one to a landslide.

More importantly, there is still a fortnight to go until polling day. While we can measure people's current support and work out what the estimated seat totals would be today, we cannot tell how people's minds may change over the next two weeks.

YouGov MRP: Conservatives 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, LD 13, Plaid 4, Green 1 | YouGov

 

[Azrael]

So, scanning through psephologist chatter on the Twittersphere (and they say politics is dull), the swing constituency breakdowns are close races, and the polls have been moving steadily in Labour's direction. No pollster's claiming this is a sure prediction, just a snapshot of where things (may be) now. Result remains wide open.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think ‘wide open’ is stretching it. There are two outcomes: Tory win and NOC. Tactical voting in the seats you mention and GOTV in the same will now decide everything. The rest is noise

 

[Azrael]

By wide open, I was referring to the possibility of a hung parliament, although I guess there's a vanishingly remote possibility of a small Lab majority if those extra voters who've just registered swing the right (or rather left) way in the right seats.

Current odds may still back a Tory majority, but the gap's bridgeable.

 

[Argonia]

And here are some Tory/LibDem marginals

constituency Con Lab LD
South Cambridgeshire 42 17 40
Winchester 47 7 44
Cheadle 47 11 42
Guildford 44 9 39
Lewes 47 8 41
North Norfolk 46 7 40
St Ives 46 10 40
Kensington 37 26 29
Hazel Grove 48 13 39
Eastbourne 48 8 38
Wokingham 46 12 36
Wells 51 8 40
Esher and Walton 49 11 38
Chelsea and Fulham 43 23 32

Guildford where I work is an interesting one - Anne Milton the former Tory is standing as an independent and so will split the Tory vote. With the massive number of students involved I predict a Lib Dumb victory.

 

[killer b]

Anne Milton the former Tory is standing as an independent and so will split the Tory vote

Will she though?

 

[Argonia]

Well it remains to be seen how many votes she picks up - might not be that many - but it could make the difference.

 

[friedaweed]

Liverpool, Riverside 14 64
Liverpool, Walton 16 70
Liverpool, Wavertree 13 62
Liverpool, West Derby 16 63

Tight as always.

 

[Argonia]

Isn't Liverpool Walton the safest seat in the country?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

By wide open, I was referring to the possibility of a hung parliament, although I guess there's a vanishingly remote possibility of a small Lab majority if those extra voters who've just registered swing the right (or rather left) way in the right seats.

Current odds may still back a Tory majority, but the gap's bridgeable.

There is zero chance of a Labour Majority.

Labour need two things to happen - leave voters in working class seats to come back (vanishingly small chance given its mess of a policy on Brexit) and Lab and Lid dem voters to start looking at the polls and vote accordingly to keep the tory out. If they can achieve this a NOC is still possible.

 

[killer b]

...and for undecideds - still a large number - to break overwhelmingly for Labour (I understand they're mostly Labour leaning anyway)

 

[steeplejack]

In Scotland, absolutely no way Tories will hold Aberdeen South or Angus. Sorry, this is just bollocks.

 

[steeplejack]

Squirrel killer holds her seat

this cannot pass

major favourite at the bookies who are rarely wrong, sadly. Looks like her pisspoor campaign will leave her "leading" the same kind of irrelevant rump of nobodies that she inherited.

 

[steeplejack]

Differential turnout and who works hardest to get their voters to the polls will be key. If anything this poll shows that, whilst things are currently not great, it's possible for them still to be turned around. I cannot see the Tories holding 12 seats in Scotland. I predict max 6 (D&G, Alister Jack, Tweedale, Moray, Banff & Buchan because fish).

There's a lot of enthusiastic young idealists making a lot of noise about Scottish Labour on twitter, but they are on course for a wipe out up here in a flatlining non-campaign. Ian Murray will come back but I'm not sure if he's in the Labour Party or not, really.

Workington and Scunthorpe going Tory...fuck...

 

[killer b]

Stephen Bush on the Yougov MRP is good this morning.

Six thoughts on YouGov's MRP model of the 2019 election

 

[Azrael]

There is zero chance of a Labour Majority.

Labour need two things to happen - leave voters in working class seats to come back (vanishingly small chance given its mess of a policy on Brexit) and Lab and Lid dem voters to start looking at the polls and vote accordingly to keep the tory out. If they can achieve this a NOC is still possible.

"Vanishingly remote" is effectively zero (poll king John Curtice put odds of a Lab majority at as close to zero as is statistically possible, and I find he of the wild hair oddly disconcerting, so I won't argue). Unless something wild happens with swings and those new voters, I'm not seriously considering it.

Lab's starting a new Brexit strategy today, dispatching Lexiteer front benchers to Leave areas to talk up a new Lab deal. Worked in '17, may work again. As for tactical voting, Lab's stock among remainers has risen by some 10 points since the campaign began, and as a stark choice between a Labour referendum and a Tory no-deal crash out roars into view, minds should be focused.

 

[Azrael]

Differential turnout and who works hardest to get their voters to the polls will be key. If anything this poll shows that, whilst things are currently not great, it's possible for them still to be turned around. I cannot see the Tories holding 12 seats in Scotland. I predict max 6 (D&G, Alister Jack, Tweedale, Moray, Banff & Buchan because fish).

There's a lot of enthusiastic young idealists making a lot of noise about Scottish Labour on twitter, but they are on course for a wipe out up here in a flatlining non-campaign. Ian Murray will come back but I'm not sure if he's in the Labour Party or not, really.

Workington and Scunthorpe going Tory...fuck...

Labour's dead in Scotland and isn't rising from the grave they've dug themselves. They'll never get over the grim spectre of sharing a stage with the Tories in '14, an image entrenched by those council stitch-ups and nudge-nudge encouragement of unionist bloc voting. Best Scottish Labour can hope for is to provide the seedbed of a genuinely independent Scottish labour party that's at least neutral on the constitution. When the mighty fall, boy do they fall far.

 

[Mr Moose]

In Scotland, absolutely no way Tories will hold Aberdeen South or Angus. Sorry, this is just bollocks.

Aberdeen/Angus agree this is bullocks.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Lab's starting a new Brexit strategy today, dispatching Lexiteer front benchers to Leave areas to talk up a new Lab deal. Worked in '17, may work again. As for tactical voting, Lab's stock among remainers has risen by some 10 points since the campaign began, and as a stark choice between a Labour referendum and a Tory no-deal crash out roars into view, minds should be focused.

Lambs to the slaughter.

Those who pushed Labour to this point should be dispatched there to face the music instead.

 

[Azrael]

Lambs to the slaughter.

Those who pushed Labour to this point should be dispatched there to face the music instead.

Very well, what would you have had them do differently?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Very well, what would you have had them do differently?

Put the shovel down. The damage is done.