Political polling

[Azrael]

lib dems would never in a million years do anything like that. and tbh, neither would labour re: not contesting key marginals

Except the Lib Dems have already stood down for Green and Paid as part of the fizzled Remain Alliance (though to be fair, who remembers that).

If the refusal of Lib and Lab to co-coperate hands Johnson a majority, there's gonna be overwhelming pressure to avoid a repeat in the next general (which I don't for a minute expect to by anywhere close to five years away). Lab's ban on standing down / expulsion for any member so much as supporting another party in an unwinnable seat will be on borrowed time.

Worst of all is that such co-operation benefits both parties: Lab get a clear run a dozens of crucial marginals, ramping up their chance of a majority, and Libs get to threaten supposedly safe Tory seats. But hey, who ever expects mere self-interest to win out?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've been more than 24 hours without a poll and am starting to cluck. When's the next one out?

I guess they are all holding back for the weekend polls now.

 

[Azrael]

Withdrawal holding off so far ...

 

[brogdale]

I've been more than 24 hours without a poll and am starting to cluck. When's the next one out?

There yer go...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Except the Lib Dems have already stood down for Green and Paid as part of the fizzled Remain Alliance (though to be fair, who remembers that).

If the refusal of Lib and Lab to co-coperate hands Johnson a majority, there's gonna be overwhelming pressure to avoid a repeat in the next general (which I don't for a minute expect to by anywhere close to five years away). Lab's ban on standing down / expulsion for any member so much as supporting another party in an unwinnable seat will be on borrowed time.

Worst of all is that such co-operation benefits both parties: Lab get a clear run a dozens of crucial marginals, ramping up their chance of a majority, and Libs get to threaten supposedly safe Tory seats. But hey, who ever expects mere self-interest to win out?

Any kind of agreement like that can only happen if they both stand for the same kind of thing, which they don't at the moment, and long may that continue tbh, unless the libdums can fundamentally change themselves. If the libdems were to embrace a bit of social democracy, it might work, but until then, Labour should steer well clear. The lds are still very much the same party as the one that enabled tory cuts in return for a few ministerial cars.

 

[killer b]

There yer go...

View attachment 191321

Uh huh

 

[DotCommunist]

There yer go...

View attachment 191321

etc etc

 

[Mr Moose]

I have heard it said that at a 7% or below Tory lead is where their overall majority comes into doubt. All to play for then.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

The lds are still very much the same party as the one that enabled tory cuts in return for a few ministerial cars.

Unfair.

They also got carrier bag charges.

 

[Supine]

Polls make depressing reading at the moment. This one made me laugh though

 

[Azrael]

Any kind of agreement like that can only happen if they both stand for the same kind of thing, which they don't at the moment, and long may that continue tbh, unless the libdums can fundamentally change themselves. If the libdems were to embrace a bit of social democracy, it might work, but until then, Labour should steer well clear. The lds are still very much the same party as the one that enabled tory cuts in return for a few ministerial cars.

Since this particular election was supposed to be about stopping Johnson by all lawful means and putting a concrete withdrawal agreement to a referendum, agreement on wider policy aims wasn't essential. Stopping the Tories was supposed to be.

In general, there's still much to be said for working for a lesser evil. Stand downs ensure that the government (or opposition) is the least bad possible, and boost Lab's chances. Win-win. As ghastly as the Con-Dems were, the horrorshow since the Tories got a majority has been so much worse.

I don't like the Lib Dems, and believe the party's so tainted by the coalition it should dissolve and reform. But awful as they are, I'll take them over Vote Leave 2.0, any day.

 

[kabbes]

Since this particular election was supposed to be about stopping Johnson by all lawful means and putting a concrete withdrawal agreement to a referendum...

The voters get to decide what an election is about, not the politicians. For many people, life is not just about our legal status with respect to a trading bloc.

 

[Azrael]

The voters get to decide what an election is about, not the politicians. For many people, life is not just about our legal status with respect to a trading bloc.

True, since Vote Leave 2.0 have run an extremely successfully propaganda campaign downplaying the impact of their preferred model of secession on all other policy areas. This just makes the argument for a pact stronger.

I put stopping Johnson first due to the unique awfulness of Vote Leave 2.0, a government that's displayed a contempt for constitutional norms unseeen since the Glorious Revolution. Given that the polls made the overwhelmingly likely outcome a binary choice between a hung parliament and a Tory majority, what possible argument is there for Johnson's opponents to make a Tory majority more likely?

 

[kabbes]

Because the Liberals are just as destructive as the Tories. Voting for them (a) puts them into the house, which I don’t want, and (b) encourages them to think their approach has a mandate, which I don’t want.

 

[Azrael]

Because the Liberals are just as destructive as the Tories. Voting for them (a) puts them into the house, which I don’t want, and (b) encourages them to think their approach has a mandate, which I don’t want.

On what measure are the Lib Dems "just as destructive" as the Tories? They don't support the unhinged policy of leaving the single market, and aren't riddled with Vote Leave alumni.

The Lib Dems' claim that Lab and Con are indistinguishable on Brexit was rightly criticized, and I don't see why the same shouldn't hold for Lib and Con.

 

[chilango]

Neo-liberal capitalism is more destructive than Brexit.

 

[kabbes]

On what measure are the Lib Dems "just as destructive" as the Tories? They don't support the unhinged policy of leaving the single market, and aren't riddled with Vote Leave alumni.

The Lib Dems' claim that Lab and Con are indistinguishable on Brexit was rightly criticized, and I don't see why the same shouldn't hold for Lib and Con.

Brexit is a side show. The Liberals support austerity, they support neoliberalism, they support pro-corporation low tax environments. Those are the ways they are just as destructive as the Tories.

 

[Azrael]

False choice, considering the fact that the Tories support both, and -- I feel absurd having to acknowledge the possibility even to dismiss it -- there's zero chance of a majority Lib Dem government.

Barring a vanishingly unlikely swing to Lab, your choice is between a hung parliament and referendum on a concrete withdrawal agreement, and giving the Tories licence to pursue a crash-out secession followed by their Singapore on Thames fantasies. Any opponent of neoliberism should prefer the first to the second, no?

 

[killer b]

If you recognise the absurdity of a lib dem majority, why can't you recognise the absurdity of a lib/lab pact? Its similarly politically impossible.

 

[Azrael]

And given the devastating effect that leaving the single market will have on a deindustrialized economy reliant on services, even if some models of Brexit can be dismissed as a side-show, nothing the Tories are offering can be.

Despite favouring British secession years before it became a live political issue, I forced myself to set aside my preference the moment I saw who was heading up Vote Leave. I find it extraordinary that anyone on the left would hand them such power to reshape Britain's economy.

 

[Azrael]

If you recognise the absurdity of a lib dem majority, why can't you recognise the absurdity of a lib/lab pact? Its similarly politically impossible.

No more absurd than Vote Leave taking over the Tories and a Con-Brexit party pact. We live in absurd times. In any case, this moves the goal posts from political desirability to political probability.

Given Lab's size and absurdly rigid policy about never standing down, I've previously said here that the Lib Dems should've stood down unilaterally in Lab-Con marginals. It would've been win-win for them: if Lab do nothing, chances of a stopping Brexit rise; alternatively, there'd have been massive pressure on Lab to return the favour.

 

[Proper Tidy]

What was objectively better about the 2010-15 govt than subsequent govts?

 

[chilango]

The LibDems are more likely to prop up a Tory government anyway, and enable Brexit.

 

[chilango]

...because it needs to be stressed here that there is an ideological commitment in the LibDems and their tradition to neo-liberalism.

Their pro-EU stance is merely opportunism.

The rumps of the Liberal Party and the SDP iirc are both pro-Leave. There's nothing intrinsically anti-Brexit in the Libdem ideology.

I'm sure someone will know, but I think the LibDems have allied with UKIP on local councils to stop Labour administration's.

They'd eagerly do the same on a national level.

 

[Azrael]

What was objectively better about the 2010-15 govt than subsequent govts?

No Brexit chaos.

The LibDems are more likely to prop up a Tory government anyway, and enable Brexit.

We're not discussing "a" Tory government, but Vote Leave 2.0. The odious chumminess between self-styled heir-to-Blair Cameron and Orange Booker Clegg is a clean different thing to an alliance between Swinson and Vote Leave's leavings. There's zero chance Lib Dem members would vote to support Brexit.

 

[Proper Tidy]

No Brexit chaos.

We're not discussing "a" Tory government, but Vote Leave 2.0. The odious chumminess between self-styled heir-to-Blair Cameron and Orange Booker Clegg is a clean different thing to an alliance between Swinson and Vote Leave's leavings. There's zero chance Lib Dem members would vote to support Brexit.

Oh ok so it's just brexit brexit brexit stuff then

 

[kabbes]

False choice, considering the fact that the Tories support both, and -- I feel absurd having to acknowledge the possibility even to dismiss it -- there's zero chance of a majority Lib Dem government.

Barring a vanishingly unlikely swing to Lab, your choice is between a hung parliament and referendum on a concrete withdrawal agreement, and giving the Tories licence to pursue a crash-out secession followed by their Singapore on Thames fantasies. Any opponent of neoliberism should prefer the first to the second, no?

Because the Liberals are just as destructive as the Tories. Voting for them (a) puts them into the house, which I don’t want, and (b) encourages them to think their approach has a mandate, which I don’t want.

 

[Azrael]

...because it needs to be stressed here that there is an ideological commitment in the LibDems and their tradition to neo-liberalism.

Their pro-EU stance is merely opportunism.

The rumps of the Liberal Party and the SDP iirc are both pro-Leave. There's nothing intrinsically anti-Brexit in the Libdem ideology.

I'm sure someone will know, but I think the LibDems have allied with UKIP on local councils to stop Labour administration's.

They'd eagerly do the same on a national level.

No, they wouldn't, because there's no chance whatsoever that an overwhelmingly anti-Brexit membership -- many of whom have joined specifically to oppose Brexit -- would give it the nod as they gave the nod to the Con-Dems.

I don't like the Lib Dems, I loathe the Orange Bookers' glee in reviving the age of the robber barons, and I detest neoliberalism. But I'm also a pragmatist, and will always pick the lesser political evil. The neoliberalism-on-steroids the Tories would inflict after Brexit is far worse than anything possible inside the E.U.

 

[Azrael]

Oh ok so it's just brexit brexit brexit stuff then

"Just"? The ruinous model of Brexit being pursued by the Tories will devastate Britain's economy, and rip apart the union in the worst way. It will fundamentally alter the size and nature of the nation. Some "just"!

 

[brogdale]

The LibDems are more likely to prop up a Tory government anyway, and enable Brexit.

Indeed; as Davey let slip during his Neil interview...all they're left with now is the hope of a hung Parliament in which their price for propping up the vermin is a second chance for the electorate to vote Leave.
As craven as it is fantastical...and we're invited to 'vote tactically' for that?