Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Political polling

And for the avoidance of any doubt, I'm not anti-Brexit in principle: I supported secession while the Tories currently singing its praises were meekly voting through a sorry procession of E.U. treaties; and if by some act of political magic the Norway option reappeared on the agenda, you'd find me amongst its most enthusiastic supporters.
 
Indeed; as Davey let slip during his Neil interview...all they're left with now is the hope of a hung Parliament in which their price for propping up the vermin is a second chance for the electorate to vote Leave.
As craven as it is fantastical...and we're invited to 'vote tactically' for that?
When the alternative is a majority Tory government delivering economic ruination and acrimonious national disintegration?
Yes.
 
No more absurd than Vote Leave taking over the Tories and a Con-Brexit party pact. We live in absurd times. In any case, this moves the goal posts from political desirability to political probability.

Given Lab's size and absurdly rigid policy about never standing down, I've previously said here that the Lib Dems should've stood down unilaterally in Lab-Con marginals. It would've been win-win for them: if Lab do nothing, chances of a stopping Brexit rise; alternatively, there'd have been massive pressure on Lab to return the favour.
living in absurd times doesn't mean all absurd things are equally feasible: the BP standing down in tory seats was a moved forced on Farage by internal dissent within the party, which is mostly made up of ex-tories who's commitment is to Brexit, not Farage. There is no such pressure within the Lib Dems, and a large part of their vote comes not from Labour leaning liberals, but from liberal leaning tories.
 
I don't like the Lib Dems, I loathe the Orange Bookers' glee in reviving the age of the robber barons, and I detest neoliberalism. But I'm also a pragmatist, and will always pick the lesser political evil. The neoliberalism-on-steroids the Tories would inflict after Brexit is far worse than anything possible inside the E.U.
This is absolute bollocks. Whether we are in or out of the EU is not that important. What matters in either case is all about what the principles are of the government in power. There’s no point being in the EU with a deeply neoliberal set of MPs. Being in the EU didn’t stop austerity or the reduction of corporation tax. Concentrating on Brexit is to concentrate on the mechanism of delivery rather than the thing you’re actually trying to deliver.
 
When the alternative is a majority Tory government delivering economic ruination and acrimonious national disintegration?
Yes.
No.
If the LDs were ideologically differentiated from the neoliberal vermin the alternative would be to rule out ever propping up Johnson...but they're not.
 
This is absolute bollocks. Whether we are in or out of the EU is not that important. What matters in either case is all about what the principles are of the government in power. There’s no point being in the EU with a deeply neoliberal set of MPs. Being in the EU didn’t stop austerity or the reduction of corporation tax. Concentrating on Brexit is to concentrate on the mechanism of delivery rather than the thing you’re actually trying to deliver.
Strictly speaking, the crucial thing isn't E.U. membership, but membership of the EEA: but since the Tories not only propose leaving the single market alongside the E.U., but reject level-playing-field proposals on any trade deal, as things stand, it's a distinction workout a difference.

Best case scenario is a bare-bones FTA, which would turbocharge austerity far beyond the Con-Dem's worst dreams. If the left does anything but oppose that with every fiber of its being, what's the point of it?
 
Strictly speaking, the crucial thing isn't E.U. membership, but membership of the EEA: but since the Tories not only propose leaving the single market alongside the E.U., but reject level-playing-field proposals on any trade deal, as things stand, it's a distinction workout a difference.

Best case scenario is a bare-bones FTA, which would turbocharge austerity far beyond the Con-Dem's worst dreams. If the left does anything but oppose that with every fiber of its being, what's the point of it?
And thus you completely fail to engage with the point.
 
No.
If the LDs were ideologically differentiated from the neoliberal vermin the alternative would be to rule out ever propping up Johnson...but they're not.
They have (that interview was over Lib Dem support for a referendum on the Brexit deal), but I'm accepting, arguendo, that they're lying to make the point: in a seat where Lab have zero chance of winning, better a Lib Dem than a Tory.
 
And thus you completely fail to engage with the point.
Which point? The E.U.'s failure to stop austerity somehow making Brexit an economic side issue? It was never going to, since contrary to the paranoia of the worst leavers, a pan-European trade bloc doesn't dictate domestic policy, especially when the member state's outwith the Eurozone. What a "hard Brexit" does do is trigger an economic crisis that'll set the conditions to turbocharge austerity, alongside stripping away those E.U. employment rights that successive British governments spent so long fighting.
 
There was me thinking this was a thread about 'polling', there's a brexit thread & a general election one too.
It followed directly from the issue of whether polling makes electoral pacts desirable, but if people want to relocate the points to those threads, by all means.
 
If the LDs were ideologically differentiated from the neoliberal vermin the alternative would be to rule out ever propping up Johnson...but they're not.
Bizarrely, the odds on Betfair atm for a Con/LD coalition are 40/1. Astonishingly good value I would say, particularly if laid alongside some other hedging bets.
 
I don't think so. Confidence & supply perhaps, but a full coalition would be impossible for them to do right now IMO. For the same reasons as standing down in labour seats would be impossible.
 
We'd have sacked him ages ago, but certainly after last Saturday. He still grimly hangs on though, I just wish he could teach the team to do that.
He's not getting out of christmas alive - your next five games are ridiculous. Anyway, back to polling....
 
Last edited:
From the Telegraph (couldn't read any further cos of paywall)

Predicted Commons majority slashed from 80 to just 12 seats in a week as Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party eats into the Conservatives’ lead, a poll of polls has revealed.

The survey - based on almost 10,000 voters - shows Jeremy Corbyn closing the gap on the Tories in the same way as Theresa May’s lead collapsed after her manifesto launch and her refusal to appear in TV debates.
 
I don't think so. Confidence & supply perhaps, but a full coalition would be impossible for them to do right now IMO. For the same reasons as standing down in labour seats would be impossible.
I dunno. If there is a hung parliament but tories plus lds gives a clear majority, we're exactly where we were in 2010, parliamentary maths-wise. What was the lds' biggest 'idea' in that election? Scrapping uni tuition fees. What did they do? Agree to triple them. The rationale, remember, from Clegg, was that they had a democratic 'duty' (I believe he used that word) to form a govt with the tories because the tories were the biggest party.

Ok, so we'll vote for brexit when we said the opposite and said the opposite in the strongest possible terms, but we'll be in there making sure it's a better brexit. Tories could use them then as a front behind which they could agree very close alignment with the EU for the foreseeable future, something they'll almost certainly have to do anyway, but which they can blame on the lds as the price of getting any kind of brexit through.
 
From the Telegraph (couldn't read any further cos of paywall)
Trying to motivate the faithful? Especially as a number of the Numerical Weather models are predicting, albeit at the weakest end of their range, a snowy 12th December.
 
I dunno. If there is a hung parliament but tories plus lds gives a clear majority, we're exactly where we were in 2010, parliamentary maths-wise. What was the lds' biggest 'idea' in that election? Scrapping uni tuition fees. What did they do? Agree to triple them. The rationale, remember, from Clegg, was that they had a democratic 'duty' (I believe he used that word) to form a govt with the tories because the tories were the biggest party.

Ok, so we'll vote for brexit when we said the opposite and said the opposite in the strongest possible terms, but we'll be in there making sure it's a better brexit. Tories could use them then as a front behind which they could agree very close alignment with the EU for the foreseeable future, something they'll almost certainly have to do anyway, but which they can blame on the lds as the price of getting any kind of brexit through.
Even supposing that Lib Dem MPs for some reason went along with this supreme act of political suicide -- in the full knowledge that it'd destroy their careers and party for good -- their internal structures make it as likely as the SNP inviting America to bring back nuclear missiles to the U.K. Lib Dem members must sign-off on any coalition: they foolishly did so in 2010; they're not going to wave through Brexit in 2019 or '20.

The contexts, and leaderships, are poles apart.
 
Even supposing that Lib Dem MPs for some reason went along with this supreme act of political suicide -- in the full knowledge that it'd destroy their careers and party for good -- their internal structures make it as likely as the SNP inviting America to bring back nuclear missiles to the U.K. Lib Dem members must sign-off on any coalition: they foolishly did so in 2010; they're not going to wave through Brexit in 2019 or '20.

The contexts, and leaderships, are poles apart.
Funny thing, politics. You get to commit suicide again and again.

I don't think it will happen, because I don't think the lds will win enough seats. But I think it's foolish to say that it couldn't happen. Johnson agrees to keep the whole of the UK in the common market, not just NI, for instance - for an initial time-limited period perhaps. Look what we did, say the lds, look how libdemmy brexit is now because of us. I could totally see them doing that For The National Interest. And of course it would solve a big problem for the tories - just as the coalition solved a big problem for them in 2010.
 
Even supposing that Lib Dem MPs for some reason went along with this supreme act of political suicide -- in the full knowledge that it'd destroy their careers and party for good -- their internal structures make it as likely as the SNP inviting America to bring back nuclear missiles to the U.K. Lib Dem members must sign-off on any coalition: they foolishly did so in 2010; they're not going to wave through Brexit in 2019 or '20.

The contexts, and leaderships, are poles apart.
You're like a lamb.
 
Ok, so we'll vote for brexit when we said the opposite and said the opposite in the strongest possible terms, but we'll be in there making sure it's a better brexit. Tories could use them then as a front behind which they could agree very close alignment with the EU for the foreseeable future, something they'll almost certainly have to do anyway, but which they can blame on the lds as the price of getting any kind of brexit through.

I don't believe the LibDems would do this - their voter base in the most pro-Remain. If Labour offered a People's Vote with SNP, then LibDems would go for that option over the Tories.
 
Back
Top Bottom