Political polling

[cupid_stunt]

If the rest of the weekend polls show predictions like that, it'll be squeaky bum time at Tory HQ.

 

[Supine]

^ yeah. This poll shows more bad news for libs:

 

[Kaka Tim]

.....

 

[Flavour]

Fantastic. Lib dem Wipeout, Swanson out, noc. Starting to be very cautiously optimistic this election won't result in tory majority.

 

[Hollis]

Need the LibDems to win marginals to ensure hung parliament.

As an anorak point in 97 LibDems increased their seats from 22 to 46 on smaller vote share.

Everyone needs to vote tactically..

 

[Hollis]

Worry if that LibDem decline leads to more Tory votes in Tory/LibDem marginals..

 

[butchersapron]

Need the LibDems to win marginals to ensure hung parliament.

As an anorak point in 97 LibDems increased their seats from 22 to 46 on smaller vote share.

Everyone needs to vote tactically..

Don't vote lib Dems under any guise.

 

[killer b]

^ yeah. This poll shows more bad news for libs:

View attachment 191428

Inject this into my veins.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The return of two party politics (episode: every general election ever). Scotland is the exception, it’s one party politics there.

The Tories seem to have squeezed the BP vote dry. Labour are now squeezing the LDs. All depends now on how this breaks seat by seat.

 

[Kaka Tim]

also - how will undecideds and brexit supporting trad labour voters vote?
how many disgruntled Brexit party voters will stay at home?
will the cold and dark deter older people from voting?

there's a few variable that could work in labours favour - but also, we could still easily end up with the vermin winning a solid majority.

 

[chilango]

Was just about to post the BMG poll posted a couple of times above.

Boris Johnson’s election lead halved, putting UK in ‘hung parliament territory’, latest poll reveals

 

[butchersapron]

Worry if that LibDem decline leads to more Tory votes in Tory/LibDem marginals..

What would that tell you hollis?

 

[brogdale]

Don't vote lib Dems under any guise.

Up there with #dontbuythesun

 

[Kaka Tim]

bet the tories are shitting themselves right now.

 

[Smangus]

Had a feeling that this week things were starting to change , the narrative that Boris avoids scrutiny at every turn, only talks about Brexit done and the message re Corbyn and the economy is starting to tire. Think the NHS and anti austerity messages are starting to resonate more but is this the crunch point? No idea.

Lets see how feverish the vermin attacks are in the next few days , that will be a good barometer.

 

[Supine]

Let's not get overly excited about one data point. Not yet at least...

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Here’s another one:

 

[kabbes]

About 41/33/13 as things stand then.

 

[Hollis]

Esher and Walton being a good example of how tactical voting might just work..

 

[Dogsauce]

Worry if that LibDem decline leads to more Tory votes in Tory/LibDem marginals..

That’s what happened in 2015, tories picked up a lot of Lib Dem seats in places like the south west. A lot of their voter base is tactical rather than ideological.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Aaaaand another poll. There seems to be loads of them tonight. Three things to note. All of the national polls indicate a similar story. There are some outliers but broadly speaking labour need to gain around 4% according to them to prevent a Tory majority. The BP can stop the Tories in some labour seats Lib/Lab voting remains essential to stop the Tories elsewhere:

 

[Proper Tidy]

I'm not buying 45%, what the fuck, one in every two voters tory, nah

 

[WouldBe]

also -
will the cold and dark deter older people from voting?

.

No. It's not dark all day long and most older people are retired so don't have to fit voting in around work.

You want to worry about the youngsters who seem to need to wear 3 hoodies and a jacket to stay warm even in summer. Let alone getting them to get off faceache, twatter or their playbox long enough to go and vote.

 

[Dogsauce]

I'm not buying 45%, what the fuck, one in every two voters tory, nah

You need to go to more large garden centres. There’s places with Edinburgh Woollen Mill concessions, the whole lot. Hundreds of parking spaces, thousands through the door daily. Don’t know anybody on benefits. They’re out there.

 

[Azrael]

Funny thing, politics. You get to commit suicide again and again.

I don't think it will happen, because I don't think the lds will win enough seats. But I think it's foolish to say that it couldn't happen. Johnson agrees to keep the whole of the UK in the common market, not just NI, for instance - for an initial time-limited period perhaps. Look what we did, say the lds, look how libdemmy brexit is now because of us. I could totally see them doing that For The National Interest. And of course it would solve a big problem for the tories - just as the coalition solved a big problem for them in 2010.

Anything “could” happen. Johnson could win a majority, revoke A50, and retire from politics to timeshare with his families. Corbyn could pack it all in and accept a seat on the board of Vought American. Sturgeon could enrol in the Grand Lodge and Swinson could join the Tufty club. Given the structure and membership of the Lib Dems, their backing any form of Brexit without a referendum is, however, so vanishingly unlikely it can be for all practical purposes safely ignored. To the vocal frustration of many dedicated Remainers, they wouldn’t even back the safety net of Boles’ “Common Market 2.0” in the indicative votes. As for Johnson going for the Norway option, maybe if he’d become PM in 2016, before May’s red lines and three years of Brexiteer frustration, but for him, that ship long sailed.

 

[Azrael]

You're like a lamb.

I tend to think the same of any moves, whether through action or inaction, that boost the odds of Vote Leave 2.0 gaining a working majority.

 

[Azrael]

^ yeah. This poll shows more bad news for libs:

View attachment 191428

Fine, if Lab’s vote rises enough to do the job by itself. The SNP looks to have Scotland sewn up, so Johnson’s majority shouldn’t come from north of the border. The danger zone is if the Lib Dems’ vote doesn’t collapse completely: in that case, Lab’s reliant on them doing well in Lib/Tory marginals without any uniform swing that lets the Tories through in Lab/Con seats.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Weekend polls are all over the place, BMG with a Tory lead of 6% to 15% with Opinium.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (-2) LAB: 33% (+5) LDEM: 13% (-5) GRN: 5% (-) BREX: 4% (+1) Lead 6% - BMGResearch

CON: 43% (+2) LAB: 33% (-1) LDEM: 13% (-) BREX: 4% (-1) GRN: 3% (+1) Lead 10% - SavantaComRes

CON: 46% (-1) LAB: 31% (+3) LDEM: 13% (+1) BREX: 2% (-1) Lead 15% - OpiniumResearch

CON: 45% (+2) LAB: 32% (+2) LDEM: 15% (-1) BREX: 3% (-) Lead 13% - DeltapollUK

CON: 43% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-) GRN: 3% (+1) BREX: 2% (-2) Lead 9% - YouGov

Cameron won his majority of 12 in 2015 on 6.6%, but that sort of lead this time could easily result in a hung parliament.

 

[kabbes]

Of five polls there, 3 show improvement for Labour, 1 is level and the other one has the Tories gaining a point. The trend right now is clear.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm not buying 45%, what the fuck, one in every two voters tory, nah

That's only up 1.5% on what they got in 2017.