Political polling

[Azrael]

That gets exactly to what I was on about in every respect. As you said, it's a case of 'what are the scenarios to avoid a tory majority' and, just as important, which ones can be pursued as an overt and achievable political strategy by Labour. And then if Labour if Labour do try and drag in some tactical Libdem/remainy votes, the risks they take in terms of the impact of those messages on Labour Leave minded voters elsewhere...

The irony is, if Labour did pull this off - and by pull it off that only means avoid a tory majority - it would actually be a victory for their timid constructive ambiguity policy that I along with many others on here have been highly critical of.

I'm still extremely suspicious of the supposed wave of Lab Leave voters flocking to Toryism. There'll be some, but as has been noted, Brexit isn't their only concern, loathing of the Tories is generations deep, ans constructive ambiguity gives them a figleaf to vote for the other old school Lab policies in the manifesto.

 

[Azrael]

Agreed.
Not sure that the 10pm exit reveal will be the end of the matter on the night of the 12th.

If Curtice gets that exit poll right, he may just ascend there and then! He did pick up the Scots Tory surge in '17, so he may yet have his apotheosis ...

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Tories won a majority, IIRC of 12, on a 6.6% lead in 2015, but Curtice has said things are very different this time, and a 7% lead is squeaky bum time for the Tories, as they could be well short of a majority on that figure, and with no friends to help them govern.

 

[Azrael]

Also worth noting that the '15 shock win was achieved off the back of scores of Tory activists getting bussed into target seats, flouting electoral spending limits, and opening the real possibility of their majority being voided by the courts. There's no indication they're pulling the same trick this time around.

*ETA* Thorough piece on scandal here.

 

[Knotted]

That's making quite a few assumptions tbh.

Of course it is. I also don't want to demoralise anyone. The mistake the polling companies were making in 2017 was plain to see and the almost inevitable flaws this time are not obvious, may well be in the opposite direction and almost certainly not of the same magnitude. But maybe they are...

Labour strategists are saying they have underestimated the Tories and overestimated the Lib Dems. That sounds right to me. They seemed to be able to win a slice of the UKIP vote in 2017 but this time the BxP vote seems to be going straight to the Tories. They can still turn that around.

 

[killer b]

Labour strategists are saying

Which labour strategists?

 

[Supine]

Edited as I quoted an old poll by mistake. DOH.

 

[brogdale]

Of course it is. I also don't want to demoralise anyone. The mistake the polling companies were making in 2017 was plain to see and the almost inevitable flaws this time are not obvious, may well be in the opposite direction and almost certainly not of the same magnitude. But maybe they are...

Labour strategists are saying they have underestimated the Tories and overestimated the Lib Dems. That sounds right to me. They seemed to be able to win a slice of the UKIP vote in 2017 but this time the BxP vote seems to be going straight to the Tories. They can still turn that around.

I've no evidence, but I'm guessing that the pollsters modelling might pre-date and struggle to accommodate the 3 million + voter registrations since Nov 6th (67% < 34 years)

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've no evidence, but I'm guessing that the pollsters modelling might pre-date and struggle to accommodate the 3 million + voter registrations since Nov 6th (67% < 34 years)

Do they actually ask if people are registered to vote?

I thought they only asked people if they intended to vote, in which case the spike in registrations shouldn't make much, if any, difference.

 

[Azrael]

I've no evidence, but I'm guessing that the pollsters modelling might pre-date and struggle to accommodate the 3 million + voter registrations since Nov 6th (67% < 34 years)

Of course, as the polling companies will readily admit (a caveat that doesn't make it into the popular narrative where polls are gospel). As I noted several pages back, the unweighted polls had Tories and Lab level over a week back. If there's a high youth turnout (oh all right then, youthquake it is), or if student votes get concentrated in particular seats, who knows what could happen.

 

[brogdale]

Do they actually ask if people are registered to vote?

I thought they only asked people if they intended to vote, in which case the spike in registrations shouldn't make much, if any, difference.

Will obviously affect the baseline assumptions about the various cohort sizes before they do their 'magic' about predicted turn-out. I really don't know, maybe they're really on it and can make the necessary changes in real time as it were, but with 600k+ registering on the last day there's been some significant additions to the available voter pool.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just checking back, 2.3 million extra registrations to vote occurred on the run up to the 2017 GE, but the actual total number of registered voters between the 2015 & 2017 GEs was only up by under 500K, as most of the 'new' registrations were because of a change of address, people wanting to change how they vote, such as to proxy or postal ballots, or duplicates, etc.

2015 - Electorate: 46,354,197
2017 - Electorate: 46,843,896

 

[killer b]

Just checking back, 2.3 million extra registrations to vote occurred on the run up to the 2017 GE, but the actual total number of registered voters between the 2015 & 2017 GEs was only up by under 500K, as most of the 'new' registrations were because of a change of address, people wanting to change how they vote, such as to proxy or postal ballots, or duplicates, etc.

2015 - Electorate: 46,354,197
2017 - Electorate: 46,843,896

You have to account for the people who died between 2015 and 2017 too

 

[killer b]

(About 500 thou per year apparently, so a million)

 

[cupid_stunt]

You have to account for the people who died between 2015 and 2017 too

Of course, there will always be a churn in voters, as some die & others reach the voting age. My point was simply that the headline figure of new registrations isn't the same as the increase in total voters registered.

This is an interesting stat...

The difference between the number of applications submitted between 1 December 2016 and 22 May 2017, when registration closed for the previous election, was approximately 4.9 million.

However the net change in the number of electors on the registers in that period was approximately 1.4 million, suggesting that a significant proportion of applications are likely to have been duplicates.

More than 1 million of the 3.2m people who registered to vote aren't new voters

That was only a 6 month period, so only around 250k would have passed away, yet there was a 3.5m difference between registrations & the increase in the total number of registered voters.

 

[Knotted]

Which labour strategists?

I don't know. I'm getting the info third hand from newspaper reports. Senior unnamed source says etc. Surely a lot more discussion and nuance behind the scenes of course. I'm just giving you a possible way Labour might succeed in turning the situation around.

 

[killer b]

I don't know. I'm getting the info third hand from newspaper reports. Senior unnamed source says etc. Surely a lot more discussion and nuance behind the scenes of course. I'm just giving you a possible way Labour might succeed in turning the situation around.

Which papers have you been reading this in? What the opinions of nameless labour strategists might mean really does vary depending on what the source is.

 

[Knotted]

Which papers have you been reading this in? What the opinions of nameless labour strategists might mean really does vary depending on what the source is.

Yeah fair enough. I read about it somewhere, and I can't remember where, but I found an article in the Standard saying the same thing. Just a hopeful possibility.

 

[killer b]

Yeah fair enough. I read about it somewhere, and I can't remember where, but I found an article in the Standard saying the same thing. Just a hopeful possibility.

It's a hopeful possibility that the tories are underestimated and the lib dems overestimated? The tories are polling 40+. Anything more than that and it's a tory majority whatever Labour manage to put on in the next week and a bit..

 

[Knotted]

It's a hopeful possibility that the tories are underestimated and the lib dems overestimated? The tories are polling 40+. Anything more than that and it's a tory majority whatever Labour manage to put on in the next week and a bit..

If the Tories are making up that vote by making inroads into socially conservative but economically left wing voters, then that's an area that Labour have failed but could still win back with a change of strategy thus bring down the Tory vote as well as increase the Labour vote. Possibly. Labour may have a last trick up their sleeve, but otherwise it's not looking good.

 

[Azrael]

Worth remembering just how low a percentage of a constituency's electorate is necessary to hold a seat under FPTP. Those Labour heartland seats can soak up a lotta defections before they flip, and there's local eccentricities to factor in: Don Valley, for example, saw over 1,500 votes go to the grandly named Yorkshire Party! They're standing again this time, alongside Kippers Redux.

 

[Dogsauce]

Many of the three million ‘new’ registrations may have been registered last time round, it’s just new registration is needed if people have moved home (which young people do a lot). I wouldn’t count on it being that significant.

 

[Azrael]

Particularly interested in how many are students (double-registered), and where those votes are cast.

 

[brogdale]

Not seen the source data...but, if correct, really quite interesting. (The change is compared to the previous fieldwork on 18-19/11).

 

[Azrael]

Not seen the source data...but, if correct, really quite interesting. (The change is compared to the previous fieldwork on 18-19/11).

View attachment 191716

If I remember it right, some of the turnout weighting for the youngest voters (don't think it was was ComRes) was as low as 10-20%. If this is close to being borne out on the 12th, well, remember those unweighted polls from the other week ...

 

[kabbes]

Peoples’ intentions can be poor predictors of their behaviour. Think of all those good intentions to exercise more, keep the house cleaner or stop smoking. So I’m not inclined to overweigh a poll on intention to vote — the statistical relationship between age and voting is still our primary predictor.

 

[cupid_stunt]

And, those figures are not much different to the percentages that actually voted last time.

 

[Azrael]

Indeed, which just goes to give credence to people's stated intentions, and calls the aforementioned weighting even further into question.

In the aftermath of '17, I remember plenty of snarky comments in op-eds about lazy youths not bothering to vote, with no apparent basis other than their own assumptions. Yet just two years later, the same narrative's again arisen among the media commentariat.

 

[treelover]

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Our latest poll for Independent reveals Conservative party lead down as Labour gains ground. Boris Johnson’s election lead halved, putting UK in ‘hung parliament territory’, latest poll reveals

Con 39% (-2)
Lab 33% (+5)
Lib Dem 13% (-5)

Dirty tricks likeley to get worse now, LD's getting hammered

 

[cupid_stunt]

A couple of new polls:





That last one took me by surprise, until I realised it was London only.