Political polling

[Spandex]

I felt that Labour did have serious issues o n A/S and were'nt quick enough to take robust action, but the media's relentless focus on it(but not the Tories transgressions) is really probelematic and unfortunatly will feed into voters concerns about labour.

I don't think the anti-Semitism issue itself is going to change many minds at this late stage, but the relentless focus on it in the media is squeezing out the opportunity for Labour to talk about other things.

Today for example: Labour were due to focus on education. That should be a vote winner for them. Then out of nowhere the JLM submission to the EHRC investigation is released. The deadline for submissions to the EHRC investigation into Labour and anti-Semitism was 31st July, so what's been released today is presumably over 4 months old. The EHRC isn't due to report until next year. I can't see any reason for it being released today other than to damage Corbyn/Labour a week before the election. And it has kept discussion on AS (bad for Labour) rather than education (good for Labour).

Every time things seem to start going Labour's way during the election campaign anti-Semtism comes back and they have to address that rather than all the stuff (probably too much) in their manifesto. Same thing happened last week with the chief rabbi's intervention.

 

[Flavour]

Are the mainstream media as influential over election results as they used to be though? The days of "it woz the sun what won it" are surely over, no? The splintering of media audiences according to Facebook targetting surely hardens binary divisions. But I'm not sure that many voters in small towns in the north (that labour need to hold, win and in some cases win back) give that much of a fuck about antisemitism. I think that stuff is probably confined largely to the London bubble

 

[Proper Tidy]

I don't think focus on antisemitism affects those voters who are committed to or attracted & enthused by labour policy. Where it has an impact is on soft vote, both traditional labour voters disengaged from modern labour party, and anti tory or tory sceptical voters; basically those voters who aren't won over to labour anyway and vote based on least worst option. The relentless focus and emphasis is at least in part because they know it is cutting through.

That emphasis is unfair as it is not relative to the scale of the problem within labour or relative to the problem outside of labour and within other parties, particularly tories - take the taki/johnson stuff, very clear historic examples of racism from johnson, large volume of racism from tory supporters on social media etc - which would be a major focus if coming from labour.

But there is also a clear antisemitism problem within labour, which flows from a political thread which distinguishes it (not better or worse but of different roots) from the racism and antisemitism evident in tories and, while emphasis may be disproportionate, it needed and needs challenging, with labour (specifically labour left) accountable for allowing it to develop and take root. Can't throw shit if you don't shit everywhere and all that. Which is what makes it difficult to disentangle the actual from the opportunistic, because there is plenty of the actual.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

This is very interesting. The Tory Party are solidifying the unionist vote in Scotland. One of the key assumptions in this GE was that the SNP would eat Labour and Tory seats. This looks less certain now and a bifurcation along older lines is re-emerging.

This does undermine somewhat the soggy liberal argument that Ruth Davidson’s ‘compassionate conservatism’ was responsible for tied showing in 2017.

 

[Sue]

This is very interesting. The Tory Party are solidifying the unionist vote in Scotland. One of the key assumptions in this GE was that the SNP would eat Labour and Tory seats. This looks less certain now and a bifurcation along older lines is re-emerging.

This does undermine somewhat the soggy liberal argument that Ruth Davidson’s ‘compassionate conservatism’ was responsible for tied showing in 2017.

Not a surprise -- they did the same thing in 2017 when all Ruth Davidson banged on about was Indyref/the Union. (I also think Ruth Davidson was a lot less popular in Scotland than the English press would have you believe.)

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Not a surprise -- they did the same thing in 2017 when all Ruth Davidson banged on about was Indyref/the Union. (I also think Ruth Davidson was a lot less popular in Scotland than the English press would have you believe.)

Yes. But the received wisdom was that the Tories would collapse in Scotland without her. In addition to this the SNP surge predicted by 'experts' does not seem to be materialising.

 

[Sue]

Yes. But the received wisdom was that the Tories would collapse in Scotland without her. In addition to this the SNP surge predicted by 'experts' does not seem to be materialising.

Received wisdom outside Scotland perhaps -- as I said, I think how Davidson is viewed in Scotland is quite different to how she's portrayed in the English press. And there's always been a Tory/unionist vote -- it's just more obvious now due to increased tactical voting/post Indyref.

Labour will lose seats, the Lib Dems may lose one but should hang onto the others and the Tories will retain most of theirs. The SNP will be the winners but they've already got 35/59 seats so given the unionist vote thing (and historical Liberalness in the Highlands/Islands) I reckon there's not much space for a surge.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another poll showing the gap closing, but still putting the Tories 12% ahead.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Panelbase is showing a 1% increase in the Tory lead.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

As does this one:

 

[cupid_stunt]

As does this one:

You're 8 hours late, see 2 posts above yours.

 

[Shechemite]

. (Wrong thread)

 

[Smokeandsteam]

You're 8 hours late, see 2 posts above yours.

yeah, I am

 

[Supine]

New poll shows Tory lead cut to 6% & Tory majority can be stopped with tactical voting

 

[Hollis]

The stats per above..

 

[magneze]

It's the hope that kills.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There'll be at least half a dozen polls for the Sunday rags, so it'll interesting to see the spread across them, in the morning.

 

[brogdale]

The stats per above..

For Lab it's now all about getting the LD % towards their 2017 7.4%.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Looks like the polls are going to be all over the fucking place again, just like in 2017, OpiniumResearch still has the Tory lead on 15%, compared to 6% with SavantaComRes.

 

[MickiQ]

I reckon we can pretty much forget any chance of a Labour majority at this point and whilst the odds favour a Tory one it is far from a done deal, even BoZo and his campaign team are warning against complacency.
Ironically the best thing Death of Squirrels can do for the Remain vote and indeed the country is to lose to the SNP in her own constituency and leave the LibDems with a leader not burdened with nonsense statements like "We will never work with Corbyn"

 

[Supine]

Only 40k tactical votes...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I reckon we can pretty much forget any chance of a Labour majority at this point and whilst the odds favour a Tory one it is far from a done deal, even BoZo and his campaign team are warning against complacency.
Ironically the best thing Death of Squirrels can do for the Remain vote and indeed the country is to lose to the SNP in her own constituency and leave the LibDems with a leader not burdened with nonsense statements like "We will never work with Corbyn"

There was never going to be a labour majority. Their collapse in Scotland put paid to that. A hung parliament with a lab+snp majority is the best that could ever realistically be hoped for. Libdems would be irrelevant then. I'd take any kind of hung parliament right now, though. Any kind of tory majority and we are really fucked.

 

[Hollis]

But I'm not sure that many voters in small towns in the north (that labour need to hold, win and in some cases win back) give that much of a fuck about antisemitism. I think that stuff is probably confined largely to the London bubble

Genuine question - not sure, what exactly do you mean by 'the London bubble'? The media? Or what?

 

[mauvais]

Are the mainstream media as influential over election results as they used to be though? The days of "it woz the sun what won it" are surely over, no? The splintering of media audiences according to Facebook targetting surely hardens binary divisions. But I'm not sure that many voters in small towns in the north (that labour need to hold, win and in some cases win back) give that much of a fuck about antisemitism. I think that stuff is probably confined largely to the London bubble

Jews don't just live in London, you know. Our constituency, in the north, is probably going to go Tory because of the antisemitism topic.

 

[Shechemite]

I’ve got (Jewish) family in the north but they all live in (or next to) big(ish) cities. Happy to be corrected but which small northern towns have a sizeable Jewish constituency?

 

[Calamity1971]

I’ve got (Jewish) family in the north but they all live in (or next to) big(ish) cities. Happy to be corrected but which small northern towns have a sizeable Jewish constituency?

Gateshead here in the north east has a large Jewish community. Not really a small town though as you say.

 

[Shechemite]

Yeah gateshead is pretty frum isn’t it?

I guess one thing this whole mess has clarified for me is how much I loathe ‘the communal leadership’.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The stats per above..

There's something odd about that one, it's not listed on the wikipedia page, so I checked the SavantaComRes twitter page and it's not on there either. It also says the poll was carried out over 4 days, whereas all their other recent polls were carried out over just 2 days.

Anyway, here's a snap shot of polls carried out in the last week...


Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

At this stage in 2017, the polls had the lead on between 1% - 12%, so the spread of this weekend's polls is a lot tighter.

It was Survation that had them on 1%, and they got 2.5% in the GE, so Survation was within the so-called margin of error of +/-2%. The only other one within that margin was SurveyMonkey (4%), and those 2 were the only ones near in 2015, both on 6% against the result of 6.6.%.

It'll be interesting to see if SurveyMonkey gets around to doing a poll this coming week, and if the two of them score a hat-trick this time, the next Survation poll is released at mid-night today, for tomorrow's Good Morning Britain.

 

[magneze]

About that poll:

 

[philosophical]

I am far from an expert on polling, but somebody linked to me this tweet thing:



It seems to suggest that pollsters might be underestimating the impact of voter registrations.
The person has a user name of Dr Moderate so I anticipate they might well get excoriated on this site.