Political polling

[kebabking]

Labour's dead in Scotland and isn't rising from the grave they've dug themselves. They'll never get over the grim spectre of sharing a stage with the Tories in '14, an image entrenched by those council stitch-ups and nudge-nudge encouragement of unionist bloc voting. Best Scottish Labour can hope for is to provide the seedbed of a genuinely independent Scottish labour party that's at least neutral on the constitution. When the mighty fall, boy do they fall far.

No, Labours Scottish problem broke long before that - as soon as the Scottish Parliament went online it became blatantly obvious that in the ingrained culture of Scottish Labour if you were bright and plausible you were selected for a Westminster seat, but if you were thick as mince you were selected for a dog shit and hospital trollies seat at Holyrood.

Because that's how labour saw the two parliament's - one for the serious stuff, and one for the no-marks you'd not leave in charge of a bag of crisps. That, I'm afraid, was obvious to anyone living in Scotland all the way through the 2000's - even with a Labour council in Glasgow, a Labour SG in Edinburgh, and a Labour government in Westminster, the inability of Scottish Labour to find their own arse in the dark was self-evident.

The spectacle of 2014 barely qualified as the 10pm game of billiards after a four hour dinner of Labour incompetence and entitlement.

 

[Dogsauce]

Labour was polling over 40% earlier in the year. The biggest haemorrhaging of support was to the Lib Dems around the Euro/Local elections, remain types, which are slowly coming back. It isn’t just Labour leavers they have to consider, difficult balancing act.

 

[Riklet]

Id be amazed if the Tories get a majority of more than 10 let alone 40+

Theyre gonna lose as many seats as they gain. Lots of marginals out there. Losing Guildord would be great, but...

 

[Azrael]

No, Labours Scottish problem broke long before that - as soon as the Scottish Parliament went online it became blatantly obvious that in the ingrained culture of Scottish Labour if you were bright and plausible you were selected for a Westminster seat, but if you were thick as mince you were selected for a dog shit and hospital trollies seat at Holyrood.

Because that's how labour saw the two parliament's - one for the serious stuff, and one for the no-marks you'd not leave in charge of a bag of crisps. That, I'm afraid, was obvious to anyone living in Scotland all the way through the 2000's - even with a Labour council in Glasgow, a Labour SG in Edinburgh, and a Labour government in Westminster, the inability of Scottish Labour to find their own arse in the dark was self-evident.

The spectacle of 2014 barely qualified as the 10pm game of billiards after a four hour dinner of Labour incompetence and entitlement.

Oh, I'm not disputing all that preceded their final demise as a major party. Indyref was undoubtedly preceded by decades of rot in Labour's Scotland branch, and the writing was on the wall -- the SNP'S 2011 majority pretty much broke the MMP system -- but the referendums's aftermath was what brought it to a head on a national level: the SNP's jump from six seats in 2010 to 56 in '15 speaks for itself. The cries of Red Tories frequency cite the No campaign's antics, and with good cause.

 

[Mr Moose]

Put the shovel down. The damage is done.

It’s a fantasy that Labour was going to manage Brexit any better given the 70/30 split against of its voters. It has been toxic for Labour for that reason.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It’s a fantasy that Labour was going to manage Brexit any better given the 70/30 split against of its voters. It has been toxic for Labour for that reason.

This is bollocks.

ETA: But I can't be arsed to have the debate again. 5 years to develop a narrative, a set of ideas, to argue for them, to build support for them, to set out a way forward that could inspire people and command support.

Instead 5 years of allowing the right to own the issue and the entire 'left' strategy handed to a Blairite.

There was a massive programme of work that could have been undertaken.

 

[Chz]

And here are some Tory/LibDem marginals

constituency Con Lab LD
South Cambridgeshire 42 17 40
Winchester 47 7 44
Cheadle 47 11 42
Guildford 44 9 39
Lewes 47 8 41
North Norfolk 46 7 40
St Ives 46 10 40
Kensington 37 26 29
Hazel Grove 48 13 39
Eastbourne 48 8 38
Wokingham 46 12 36
Wells 51 8 40
Esher and Walton 49 11 38
Chelsea and Fulham 43 23 32

Going the other way, I'd be surprised to see the LDs hold on to Carshalton and Wallington again. They held it in 2017 (by a thousand) because the election rhetoric wasn't all about Brexit, but it's a Leave-voting area and I don't rate their chances this time. I was wrong in 2017 though, and Brake has a great street presence. I don't like him, but at least he's out there trying. I've never even seen the Labour candidate; the Brexit party is putting more effort in.

 

[steeplejack]

STV Scottish Election Poll

A lot more optimistic than youguff's poll last night.

SNP 44%
Tory 26%
Labour 16%
Yellow Scum 11%
Green 2%
Brexit 1%

This would translate into 48 SNP seats, 6 for the Tories, 4 for the yellow scum, with (presumably) only Ian Murray clinging on in Edinburgh.

Interesting a parallel poll shows folk opposed by a majority of 50-42 on having an independence referendum next year. Looks like, much to the chagrin of the UDI roasters and those who want another referendum tomorrow, that waiting until a new mandate is won in 2021- and in bad conditions if the blustercunt wins- is a surer path to success.

 

[brogdale]

Going the other way, I'd be surprised to see the LDs hold on to Carshalton and Wallington again. They held it in 2017 (by a thousand) because the election rhetoric wasn't all about Brexit, but it's a Leave-voting area and I don't rate their chances this time. I was wrong in 2017 though, and Brake has a great street presence. I don't like him, but at least he's out there trying. I've never even seen the Labour candidate; the Brexit party is putting more effort in.

Have to say I'd be surprised to see Brake lose. It will be tight again, but the C&W LD operation is pretty slick and very well embedded. You have to remember that the activist base is heavily retired 'professionals' who are time-rich and have MC 'organisational skills'. Added to which, with so few seats to defend, the party can throw the kitchen sink at its marginal holds.

The message to Labour supporters is, as always "lend me your vote to keep the tories out" and to the average punter (not folk like us that hold fixed memories of their coalition culpability) it's quite a persuasive line. Especially so in the more remainy areas further South in the constituency.

Last night's YG MRP for C&W had the tories on 40% & Brake on 41%.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A seat-by-seat poll from YouGov indicated Boris Johnson’s Tories are on course to end up with 359 seats after the general election, securing a hefty majority of 68, with Labour slumping to 211, losing 68 seats in the process.

But political scientist Sir John Curtice said, leaving aside the latest YouGov poll, other recent figures pose a “clear warning” to the Tories. The Politics Professor at Strathclyde University told BBC News: “But if in the next two weeks the Conservative lead in the poll should fall back to let us say around seven points, then the election could suddenly look much closer and at least the possibility of a hung parliament would come back into view.”

Polling guru issues dire warning to Tories in terrifying election forecast

Curtice is usually fairly on the ball, and, of course both ComRes & ICM's polls in the last few days have already got the lead down to 7%.

* Sorry for the source link, couldn't find any other outlet currently quoting Curtice on this.

 

[Mr Moose]

This is bollocks.

ETA: But I can't be arsed to have the debate again. 5 years to develop a narrative, a set of ideas, to argue for them, to build support for them, to set out a way forward that could inspire people and command support.

Instead 5 years of allowing the right to own the issue and the entire 'left' strategy handed to a Blairite.

There was a massive programme of work that could have been undertaken.

I wouldn’t want to have the debate either but every week you lament what Labour didn’t do. And yet the vast majority of people you expected to do this didn’t believe in Brexit whatsoever, saw it as toxic. It was a non-starter.

 

[killer b]

I remember on the ball Curtice holding out for a Tory majority long past the exit poll in 2017

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I wouldn’t want to have the debate either but every week you lament what Labour didn’t do. And yet the vast majority of people you expected to do this didn’t believe in Brexit whatsoever, saw it as toxic. It was a non-starter.

Except Corbyn and McDonnell? And Lavery? And Trickett etc etc

You also challenge me every week. And yet you never engage on the central point - which is that it is impossible to separate out the issue of Brexit and how it relates to other issues - but that’s what Labour tried to do. To seal it off from everything else. Cannot be done.

In addition to this class permeates the debate and Labour has actively refused to engage on that basis. To actively refuse to even acknowledge the sharp class dimensions and have something to say about it policy wise? Pathetic

 

[cupid_stunt]

I remember on the ball Curtice holding out for a Tory majority long past the exit poll in 2017

Seriously?

Fifty minutes after an exit poll revealed Theresa May could lose her parliamentary majority, the poll’s author, John Curtice, appeared on a balcony above the BBC’s election night studio.

Like a donnish deity surveying the journalists and politicians scrambling to make sense of the lightning bolt launched at them, Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, calmly predicted how the night could unfold. And as time went on, commentators started to concede that it was he who had won the election. By 6am on 9 June, the results almost matched Curtice’s exit poll.

Prof John Curtice, the man who won the election: it’s wonderful to prove the world wrong

 

[killer b]

Hmm, must've been someone else then. Kelner? It was a fairly packed few hours...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Hmm, must've been someone else then. Kelner? It was a fairly packed few hours...

Yep, must have been someone else.

I certainly remember him being right in 2017, in 2015 when Paddy said he would eat his hat if he was right, and also in 2010. I didn't watch the 2005 results coming in, as everyone knew Labour would win, but he got that spot on, at a maj. of 66.

This election is “the fourth time in a row we have said things people regarded as incredible”, he says. In 2005 he predicted a majority for Labour of 66 rather than 100, in 2010 he said the Lib Dems would lose seats and in 2015 that Cameron had won (Paddy Ashdown had promised to publicly eat his hat if the poll was right).

 

[Hollis]

I'm wondering what a Stop Johnson strategy would look like over the next two weeks... Other than the apparent obvious..
- LibDems and Lab have tacit agreements in key marginals to step down campaigning
-Both focus on Tories rather than each other
-Both get messages out to vote tactically.

What else...?

 

[Fez909]

I'm wondering what a Stop Johnson strategy would look like over the next two weeks... Other than the apparent obvious..
- LibDems and Lab have tacit agreements in key marginals to step down campaigning
-Both focus on Tories rather than each other
-Both get messages out to vote tactically.

What else...?

Deploy tactical milkshakes

 

[Flavour]

lib dems would never in a million years do anything like that. and tbh, neither would labour re: not contesting key marginals

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Do the libdems want to stop Johnson? Serious question - I find it hard to fathom what they want.

 

[brogdale]

Do the libdems want to stop Johnson? Serious question - I find it hard to fathom what they want.

equal 'opportunities'

 

[Mr Moose]

Except Corbyn and McDonnell? And Lavery? And Trickett etc etc

You also challenge me every week. And yet you never engage on the central point - which is that it is impossible to separate out the issue of Brexit and how it relates to other issues - but that’s what Labour tried to do. To seal it off from everything else. Cannot be done.

In addition to this class permeates the debate and Labour has actively refused to engage on that basis. To actively refuse to even acknowledge the sharp class dimensions and have something to say about it policy wise? Pathetic

Because you say it every week. But there is no simple class take on this. Labour has certainly lost many white working class votes. It has retained plenty of others.

There isn’t a simple solution like you make out. It’s simply that one argument favours your views, same with me.

Labour has at least tried to put forward some redistributive politics. It’s part of the toxic nature of Brexit that it has been raised to the level of top trump and this manifesto sadly won’t convince those who currently feel Brexit is all important. Whatever move Labour made in that direction could have led to a catastrophic collapse in its other support and in any case, besides those names what mass of party support would have taken it forward? Skewered.

 

[Hollis]

lib dems would never in a million years do anything like that. and tbh, neither would labour re: not contesting key marginals

To clarify I mean Con/LibDem or Con/Lab marginals.

 

[Hollis]

Do the libdems want to stop Johnson? Serious question - I find it hard to fathom what they want.

I assume there original strategy was based on having a Macron/Trudeau style breakthrough...and capturing a massive chunk of the centre ground.. that clearly isn't going to happen. They will now being going back to key marginals, and hoping for a hung parliament.

I think the membership and voters main concern is remain. I heard an interview wiht Swinson last weekend on Marr, where she stated that Remain would be the main issue in any negotiations with other parties.

So I see a Con/LibDem arrangement post-election much less probable that a LibDem/Lab/SNP..

 

[friedaweed]

Isn't Liverpool Walton the safest seat in the country?

Seat yes but that's about as far as safety goes for that hood.

 

[Dogsauce]

Lib dems are pushing all kinds of fibbing bar chart shit in Labour/Tory marginals, can’t see how labour can stand back in Tory/lib dem marginals while this shit is going on. In an ideal world they might both deploy resources according to where they might win, wouldn’t need even an informal agreement, just an acceptance that it doesn’t serve their interests to push down an anti-Tory vote.

I suspect a lot of people pay no attention to tactical voting anyway.

 

[MickiQ]

Lib dems are pushing all kinds of fibbing bar chart shit in Labour/Tory marginals, can’t see how labour can stand back in Tory/lib dem marginals while this shit is going on. In an ideal world they might both deploy resources according to where they might win, wouldn’t need even an informal agreement, just an acceptance that it doesn’t serve their interests to push down an anti-Tory vote.

I suspect a lot of people pay no attention to tactical voting anyway.

Labour can't stand aside and still claim that they're trying to win rather than simply push the Tories out, just like the Tories can't come to an accomadation with
the Brexit Party.
The message from both of them is the same, we are the Party of Government, we are going to win and not strike grubby deals. It would make far more sense for Labour to write Scotland off has a lost cause but they can't do that either and still be taken seriously.

 

[Dogsauce]

Not really about standing aside, they have to give people the option of voting for their party. They don’t have to try really hard, or send out misleading literature suggesting they’re in with a chance

 

[Hollis]

I get the impression even constituency parties aren't particualarly good at acting stratetically for the benefit of party as a whole..

I'm in a LibDem/Labour contest - with it being a very long-shot for the LibDems - they might as well tell everyone at this stage to forget it and go to Finchley or Chelsea..

 

[killer b]

I've been more than 24 hours without a poll and am starting to cluck. When's the next one out?