Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Another poll showing the gap closing, ICM down from a 10% Tory lead in their last poll (15-18 Nov.) to 7% now (22-25 Nov.)
Don Troooomp is going to hate that.
Don Troooomp is going to hate that.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
The word Labour is visible in one of the newspaper headlines he must have missed that one.
Another poll showing the gap closing, ICM down from a 10% Tory lead in their last poll (15-18 Nov.) to 7% now (22-25 Nov.)
Don Troooomp is going to hate that.
wonder how nasty Tories will get if that continues, Cummings's Götterdämmerung
Proper Tidy
Arsed
I hate myself for saying this, and with usual caveat that welsh labour is dogshit that can go fuck itself, but that's a lovely sight
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Also that polling does suggest some movement from brexit party to labour (yeah I know it's one poll)
Plumdaff
joy in people
That's what happened in 2017, I think. And yes, Welsh Labour are shite, and yes, some will no doubt convince themselves this is happening 'despite' Corbyn, but I'd love to see the leftwards pressure a Corbyn government could exert on them. Particularly as Plaid seem to have regressed into a pile of corporation tax-reducing toss.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Scottish co-operative party is the most visible.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Not what was claimed on news at midday. BBC claimed labour could lose most of it's seats in Wales apart from a few in the south.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
It's the BBC though. They probably cut out the bit of audio with the word 'not' in it.Not what was claimed on news at midday. BBC claimed labour could lose most of it's seats in Wales apart from a few in the south.
Not what was claimed on news at midday. BBC claimed labour could lose most of it's seats in Wales apart from a few in the south.
On the basis of what poll was that??
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My drinking mate Eddie (ward Labour organiser in the bit of Gower that's most in Swansea) said yesterday they're having few problems in Gower -- overall, not just in the Swansea bit only.
He has lots of volunteers, several of whom he's been encouraging to go into the more rural/Toryish bits.
I'll be helping with a leaflet drop (a new Antoniazzi one) in his area on Friday
Plumdaff
joy in people
Not what was claimed on news at midday. BBC claimed labour could lose most of it's seats in Wales apart from a few in the south.
If that poll Labour might lose four seats, a month ago the polls indicated that they could lose nine. Now with very marginal swings they could hold some of the four, and if the surge continues at 2017 pace maybe, just, make a gain (this is unlikely, but the Vale has some ahem personality issues in the race)
It's utter bullshit that Labour will get wiped out in Wales, but also this new poll came out at 5pm.
Or, at least where things stood at the time of the fieldwork...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Crucial point; esp. given their assumptions about predicted turn-out by age cohort.
Where the fieldwork end point is along this line will also be important; of the 366k of voters registering yesterday, the vast majority were <35 years of age.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
The higher number of younger voters registering will partly be indicative of younger people generally moving about more, insecure tenancies, students etc. People tend to settle down in one place as they get older, or be part of the ‘home owning generation’ so won’t need to reregister, whereas someone who has moved to a new rented place will need to sign up again.
I saw on Twitter that there was a huge spike in people accessing the registration site in the early hours, which might have been a failed attempt to knock it over. Fortunately it’s quite a robust site, but a little worrying that someone would try.
I saw on Twitter that there was a huge spike in people accessing the registration site in the early hours, which might have been a failed attempt to knock it over. Fortunately it’s quite a robust site, but a little worrying that someone would try.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
It was something around 4am I think, which seemed an odd time to be using the site, but might just be fake news bollocks (although the person tweeting it wasn’t claiming a grand conspiracy or screaming Russia, seemed pretty legit)
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Doesn't show on the usage graph.
Stormzy tweeted just after 7pm and the peak shows the response.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I saw the timing as being related to Labour launching their 'race and faith manifesto' today.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Could well be.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Britain Elects' updated tracker poll of polls:
With only a few % of the BP left to squeeze, it's even clearer now that voting LD in anything other than about 13 Tory held/LD marginals (below) is probably the best way to secure a 'hard', tory Brexit.
With only a few % of the BP left to squeeze, it's even clearer now that voting LD in anything other than about 13 Tory held/LD marginals (below) is probably the best way to secure a 'hard', tory Brexit.
And of course the seats the lib dems hold which are vulnerable to the tories. I don't know how many there are of those but there does appear to be an option for that in the polling but its a screenshot with no hyperlink.
I know predicting anything politically is a fools game these days but I'd bet the house on Zac Goldsmith being out of a job just before Christmas. Racist wanker.
I know predicting anything politically is a fools game these days but I'd bet the house on Zac Goldsmith being out of a job just before Christmas. Racist wanker.
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