Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
Fuck. It’s almost it’s almost as if you can’t believe a word the Lib Dems say.
To be fair though, looks like a fantasy that Johnson will agree to a second ref.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Fuck. It’s almost it’s almost as if you can’t believe a word the Lib Dems say.
To be fair though, looks like a fantasy that Johnson will agree to a second ref.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Sure.
But they'll worry* about that once they've signed up to support a Tory government.
*i.e. forget
Jeremiah18.17
Well-Known Member
Personally I have not met a Lib Dem who was not either
A/ Terminally naive
B/ A completely duplicitous “apolitical“ chancer
Or
C/ A closet Tory/Tory in denial/Tory in a social situation where open Toryism is unacceptable or a career hindrance
A/ Terminally naive
B/ A completely duplicitous “apolitical“ chancer
Or
C/ A closet Tory/Tory in denial/Tory in a social situation where open Toryism is unacceptable or a career hindrance
Definitely decided which party to vote for?
All: 59%
Con: 71%
Lab: 54%
LD: 40%https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/conservatives-maintain-polling-lead-four-ten-say-they-may-change-their-minds … #ge2019
5
2:53 PM - Nov 21, 2019
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bad poll out
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Those not certain of voting for their party may just be considering a tactical vote, suspect some Labour supporters will vote Lib Dem where it can make a difference and vice versa, whereas tories have nowhere else to go (or a need to). So maybe not as bad as it sounds.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
I reckon this place is a good place to ask a question regarding YouGov.
I recently signed up to YouGov, can't remember why or how but there you go.
Anyway I was getting a survey every other day or so, very regular. Obviously my answers to the political stuff would have been very left leaning. I did about 10 or so and now I've not heard from them for a fortnight. Would this be normal for keeping data randomised or are they filtering out people giving them answers they don't want?
I recently signed up to YouGov, can't remember why or how but there you go.
Anyway I was getting a survey every other day or so, very regular. Obviously my answers to the political stuff would have been very left leaning. I did about 10 or so and now I've not heard from them for a fortnight. Would this be normal for keeping data randomised or are they filtering out people giving them answers they don't want?
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
i think the theory is they try and keep some proportion, in terms of region / age / gender, and also they ask questions about how you voted in the last election, or the referendum, and then try and select people for their next survey based on trying to match known proportions in the population as a whole, so if particular demographics are under / over represented in the people who have signed up to it, then presume they will be sent surveys less / more often than average.
and think you can also select roughly how often you get sent surveys, to avoid getting overloaded. you didn't select something about that, did you?
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Thanks puddy tat.
I did. They said, would you like to get more surveys more often and I said yes.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Tory lead down 3% on their last poll.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I read somewhere that the best way to get more surveys is say that you're very likely to vote but not sure for which party.
ska invita
back on the other side
So Brexit Party vote has evaporated, which benefits Tories overall. Tories might yet lose a couple of points but cant see them finishing much less than 39-40%, Labour on 35%?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Very small changes, but backing-up the trend that the 2 main parties are taking votes from the others.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
The thing with the LibDems is that few people vote LibDem because they want a LibDem, they mostly vote LibDem because they want the alternative (usually a Tory) even less. I did think after the way their vote crashed in 2015 and Cable had the sense not to go into Coalition in 2017 that they had learnt that lesson.
Death of Squirrels seems to have forgotten that already and even worse has been deluding herself that people are really buying into what she's saying and she has an actual chance of being PM.
Their one big draw other than being the protest vote was the "Vote For Us and We will cancel Brexit" schtick which did give them some momentum but they have screwed themselves by stating they won't work with anyone else to stop Brexit even though that is entirely why Remainers might vote for them.
They've sidelined themselves and even the people who really don't want Brexit realise that voting for the LibDems won't stop it, in fact their best bet for stopping it is to vote Labour, let Labour try and negotiate a better deal, fail miserably and put it to the vote in another referendum where they will end up campaigning against their own deal.
I started off expecting the LibDems to do well in this election picking up 30 or so seats, now I reckon they will get 10-15, they might pick up a few key marginals but they will probably lose some especially in Scotland where Death of Squirrels might even be unseated by the SNP.
Their big message is wasted in Scotland where everyone wants to stop Brexit and the SNP is almost certainly going to hold more seats than the LD come 13 Dec and is prepared to be pragmatic.
Death of Squirrels seems to have forgotten that already and even worse has been deluding herself that people are really buying into what she's saying and she has an actual chance of being PM.
Their one big draw other than being the protest vote was the "Vote For Us and We will cancel Brexit" schtick which did give them some momentum but they have screwed themselves by stating they won't work with anyone else to stop Brexit even though that is entirely why Remainers might vote for them.
They've sidelined themselves and even the people who really don't want Brexit realise that voting for the LibDems won't stop it, in fact their best bet for stopping it is to vote Labour, let Labour try and negotiate a better deal, fail miserably and put it to the vote in another referendum where they will end up campaigning against their own deal.
I started off expecting the LibDems to do well in this election picking up 30 or so seats, now I reckon they will get 10-15, they might pick up a few key marginals but they will probably lose some especially in Scotland where Death of Squirrels might even be unseated by the SNP.
Their big message is wasted in Scotland where everyone wants to stop Brexit and the SNP is almost certainly going to hold more seats than the LD come 13 Dec and is prepared to be pragmatic.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The six polls this weekend -
* All polling companies have now removed parties from areas where they are not standing, hence the Brexit Party only polling between 3 & 5% across all 6 polls this weekend.
* All polling companies have now removed parties from areas where they are not standing, hence the Brexit Party only polling between 3 & 5% across all 6 polls this weekend.
I simply refuse to believe 47% for the Tories. Even Blair at the height of his powers ( 
) never managed a vote share that high.
And I'm a pessimist ....
) never managed a vote share that high.And I'm a pessimist ....
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
First Scottish poll of the campaign out today.
First Scottish election poll predicts electoral wipeout for Labour
First Scottish election poll predicts electoral wipeout for Labour
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
What's going on there is the pro-independence people who have been voting for Labour switching to the SNP. The Tory vote is almost completely a unionist vote but quite a lot of Labour people are pro-indy despite the official party line. I think the Tories are probably picking up a few Labour voters too for the opposite reason though.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I am still surprised, as I was expecting the Tories to be almost wiped out in Scotland, like they were in 2015, winning just 1 seat.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
2015 was a massive high water mark for the SNP though. That's unlikely to be repeated.
Re Edinburgh South and Ian Murray btw, an interesting article here
‘We are running this campaign as a marginal seat’ – Ian Murray’s Edinburgh South battle
That's my seat. Ian Murray's constituency office has floor-to-ceiling campaign posters on the side of it and the word 'Labour' does not appear once. If I remember I'll try to take a photo on my way to work tomorrow.
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