You're correct in all that.
I've bolded the bit you're most right about
That doesn't mean WouldBe is all that objective either.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
You're correct in all that.
I've bolded the bit you're most right about
That doesn't mean WouldBe is all that objective either.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
My dad left the Labour Party in the early nineties over the selection of Glenys Kinnock for the MEPs list. He won't vote for Corbyn on the basis that he doesn't wear a tie. Seriously. Even though there's plenty of photographic evidence that Corbyn does wear a tie, and even though I reckon it's probably a decade since my dad did.
Not sure what the moral of the tale is.
Not sure what the moral of the tale is.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
More from Goodwin on the YouGov poll data. You can see the obvious task here. Squeeze the LD and Green vote. The Tory/BP support is gone.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Here’s a cut by age given the discussion up thread.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
WouldBe
Dislicksick
The 1st and last don't make sense as there are big discrepancies between the losses and gains.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Another poll. Never heard of Panel MD but again it shows the two main parties squeezing the others:
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Brexit doing a UKIP; maybe Dick Braine will fancy his chances of leading another party?
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Massive missteps from Farage. But, the writing was on the wall after Peterborough for them. His clunking handling of the last month merely accelerated the demise
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
But that lot have all hated Labour pretty much more than anything else, so surely this is a good result anyway? They’ve pressured the Tory party into some hardline Brexit, drawn people into their sphere of thinking and shifted everything to the right. Very much mission accomplished. I doubt Farage gives that much of a fuck, and he still gets plenty of attention for now.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Round-up of this weekend's polls - the figure in RED is the change in the Tory lead since that polling company's last poll.
* BMG hasn't yet removed the Brexit Party from the areas where they are not standing.
Bear in mind that at this stage in 2017, the Tories were leading by 15% to 20%, so anything can happen.
* BMG hasn't yet removed the Brexit Party from the areas where they are not standing.
Bear in mind that at this stage in 2017, the Tories were leading by 15% to 20%, so anything can happen.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
It seems the Tories are under pressure from the LibDems, and Labour is in melt-down, in some London seats:
Wimbledon constituency voting intention: CON: 38% (-8) LDEM: 36% (+21) LAB: 23% (-13)
Kensington constituency voting intention: CON: 36% (-6) LDEM: 33% (+21) LAB: 27% (-16)
Finchley & Golders Green constituency voting intention: CON: 46% (-1) LDEM: 32% (+25) LAB: 19% (-25)
via
@DeltapollUK
, 07 - 13 Nov Chgs. w/ GE2017
Britain Elects (@britainelects) on Twitter
Wimbledon constituency voting intention: CON: 38% (-8) LDEM: 36% (+21) LAB: 23% (-13)
Kensington constituency voting intention: CON: 36% (-6) LDEM: 33% (+21) LAB: 27% (-16)
Finchley & Golders Green constituency voting intention: CON: 46% (-1) LDEM: 32% (+25) LAB: 19% (-25)
via
@DeltapollUK
, 07 - 13 Nov Chgs. w/ GE2017
Britain Elects (@britainelects) on Twitter
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Golders Green is, I think, a strongly Jewish community so that sadly makes sense. Interesting elsewhere in London, the LDs are beginning to crumble nationally so London may be there only hope of seats
1) Deltapoll are a very new company with little track record
2) Hardly anyone ever does constituency polls because weighting for the precise social/economic make up of it is incredibly hard
3) However, Opinium actually did poll F&GG last month and got C29, L25, LD41. Which, unless something very weird has been happening over the last few weeks, kind of bears out my point 2 above
4) As Whagwan notes above, at least some polling orgs seem to be using a turn out model that is laughable anyway. Ten point higher turnout for over 65s than last time in the middle of December?! Astonishing drops in youth turnout when loads more have been registering this time?! I just can't see the justification for the figures he's posted, turnout hasn't made 90% in any age group since the 70s
5) Labour are turning out ridiculous numbers of canvassers in London atm and Kensington is obviously a massive focus for them. I'm sorry but the idea that they're suddenly going to drop by that much is laughable. Canvassing matters, so does voter ID and GOTV
6) Conclusion from all of that is that even with questionable polling, the Lib Dems still can't imagine themselves a win in London so just vote Labour eh
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
JTG, whilst Deltapoll is firmly new, they have done several GB wide polls for this coming election, and seem fairly inline with other polling companies, and some of their founders came from Yougov & ICM.
But, as you say, constituency polls are very difficult & samples tend to be very small, which is why I started that post with 'it seems'.
But, as you say, constituency polls are very difficult & samples tend to be very small, which is why I started that post with 'it seems'.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Kantar polling for absolutely shocking drops in turnout in the youth vote and over 65's going from 80to 90% engagement!!! Given 1 million under 34's have signed up in the last two weeks (double the numbers of 2017) I'm struggling to see their reasoning.
Predictions about how much of a specific age group are going to vote can't be anything more than just making stuff up based on gut feel.
I know it's purely anecdotal but I have a 17 yr old who is seriously narked that she won't get to vote but clearly the statement that young people aren't interested is simplistic
maomao
普費斯
I missed being able to vote in the 92 GE by 2 months and lived in a constituency where Labour lost to the Tories by a very slim margin (Edmonton). Was gutted at the time.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
311 + 268 = 579
With the SNP on course for 40+, 17 NI, presumably one Green, a small handful of Plaid and a speaker, doesn't look good for the Jo Swinson's Lib Dems Stopping Brexit Party.
With the SNP on course for 40+, 17 NI, presumably one Green, a small handful of Plaid and a speaker, doesn't look good for the Jo Swinson's Lib Dems Stopping Brexit Party.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It's done on past elections. There has been a pattern in the UK of dipping youth vote (not mirrored everywhere in the world - iirc, in Italy, young people are more likely to vote than older people - so a phenomenon that must have its roots in peculiarly UK conditions). The graphs here show the youth vote consistently lower than the oldies vote since the 60s, but not way lower until the 90s/2000, when it dropped off a cliff.
I believe that figure of over 60% for 2017 is disputed now btw, but either way, the question modellers have to address is 'why did the youth turnout fall off that cliff?' It would appear to me to be related to something to do with Blair and New Labour, perhaps a disillusionment and feeling of disenfranchisement, particularly following the Iraq War. Obviously, if that's the case, it is something Corbyn's Labour can potentially tap into, but new sources of disillusionment threaten - most notably of course brexit, which around three quarters of under 25s who voted in the referendum voted against (likely to be even higher than that among Labour-voting under 25s).
maomao
普費斯
They'll be Jo Swinson's Getting Brexit Done (in ministerial jags) party by mid December.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
If these numbers turn out to be correct (And it's a big if) then Friday morning is going to be interesting. Even if Bozo hadn't burnt his bridges with the DUP it wouldn't be enough whereas Lab+SNP would be just enough
maomao
普費斯
Tories + piss Tories would be enough though. And the lib dems are always fucking up for it.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
If those numbers turn out to be correct then no it still wouldn't be enough since there would only be 9 or 10 LD's so the Tories would need them and the DUP
Personally I don't think the LD's would be willing to prop up the Tories anyway since the Tory Party now is a very different beast than it was under Cameron
In fact whilst I personally expect them to do modestly well this time I think they will probably find themselves completely irrelevant come 13 Dec. I don't think they can work with the Tories and their condition for working with Labour (dump Corbyn) is a non starter
maomao
普費斯
Well if the people of East Dunbartonshire oblige they'll be some other fucker's Liberal Democrats by then anyway so they can drop all Swinson's crap and just follow the sound of the ministerial motors.
Whagwan
.
Kantar polling for absolutely shocking drops in turnout in the youth vote and over 65's going from 80to 90% engagement!!! Given 1 million under 34's have signed up in the last two weeks (double the numbers of 2017) I'm struggling to see their reasoning.
Someone has reweighted that Kantar poll to 2017 turnout.
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