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I don't deny there's dwindling support for Labour in the working class, but there's a difference - or there could be a difference - between dwindling support and a massive tory lead. It would be useful to have some idea what the true figures are, rather than just going :eek: at poll data using apparently inaccurate classifications.
 
Proper Tidy said:
I have absolutely no doubt that labour support is declining amongst working class and have posted a fair bit about the slow divorce between LP and its working class constituency. But that's a different thing to voting tory, most of the people I know won't vote tory, they just won't vote.
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The yougov poll shows an 11% decease in support for the BP and a 10% increase in support for the Tories among those defined at working class.
 
killer b said:
I don't deny there's dwindling support for Labour in the working class, but there's a difference - or there could be a difference - between dwindling support and a massive tory lead. It would be useful to have some idea what the true figures are, rather than just going :eek: at poll data using apparently inaccurate classifications.
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the only way to determine the true support is to await the declarations of constituencies which will be made on the night of 12/13 december
 
killer b said:
I don't deny there's dwindling support for Labour in the working class, but there's a difference - or there could be a difference - between dwindling support and a massive tory lead. It would be useful to have some idea what the true figures are, rather than just going :eek: at poll data using apparently inaccurate classifications.
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I agree with that. It is far from objective. But I think we can safely draw out trends. The extent is the key question - but I suspect we won't know until the 12th December
 
Smokeandsteam said:
I agree with that. It is far from objective. But I think we can safely draw out trends. The extent is the key question - but I suspect we won't know until the 12th December
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sure, but if we're trying to discuss and analyse what might happen then, it's useful to know what polling we're looking at is useful information, and what is cherry-picked data being presented by partisan actors to influence how things go on the 12th December.
 
Proper Tidy said:
Right, and it's fair to ask how yougov is defining working class. Tories had an unassailable lead in c2de last time which didn't materialise in most parts of UK (notably did in some).
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If we assume that the numbers are similar to last time (I don't - I think there are significantly more switchers this time due to Brexit) then you are right, the patterning is critical. You are also right a lot of people, especially given the timing, just won't vote.

But, there is zero evidence anywhere which offers optimism for Labour at present. As Mr. Moose points out even its 2017 middle class support is drifting down and not up.
 
killer b said:
sure, but if we're trying to discuss and analyse what might happen then, it's useful to know what polling we're looking at is useful information, and what is cherry-picked data being presented by partisan actors to influence how things go on the 12th December.
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anything presented by partisan actors will have been cherry-picked
 
killer b said:
sure, but if we're trying to discuss and analyse what might happen then, it's useful to know what polling we're looking at is useful information, and what is cherry-picked data being presented by partisan actors to influence how things go on the 12th December.
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Not sure I follow. It's yougov polling data (Goodwin has linked to it). Leaving aside the general point about polls have you got another point? Are you claiming Yougov or Goodwin are partisan actors manipulating data?
 
Well Goodwin does a lot of stuff of value and wouldn't try and make case he's intentionally manipulating data but he does have a specific view based on a need for labour to switch to an economically left culturally conservative position which is apparent in everything he does. Hence the live book eating on Sky a couple of years ago.
 
Goodwin is certainly partisan, and I while I'm sure the data says all that, if C2DE doesn't just mean working class, presenting it as such - as he does, and so does Guido Fawkes from the same results - misleads.
 
Proper Tidy said:
Well Goodwin does a lot of stuff of value and wouldn't try and make case he's intentionally manipulating data but he does have a specific view based on a need for labour to switch to an economically left culturally conservative position which is apparent in everything he does. Hence the live book eating on Sky a couple of years ago.
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Yes he does. But' it's a massive stretch to suggests he's manipulating data to do it.
 
We need to think about what the relevance of class is here. There's a difference between arguing that the Labour Party should be representing the more deprived (in all the various forms of capital) sections of society and that it should be representing those who, well, labour for a living.
 
Smokeandsteam said:
Yes he does. But' it's a massive stretch to suggests he's manipulating data to do it.
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I'm not though. I'm suggesting he's interpreting data in line with his worldview, something everybody is guilty of and something he has past form for given previous errors.

Anyway I maintain my position, based on my worldview and biases, that there is no way one in every two working class voters will put a cross next to a fucking tory. I recognise that there are working class voters who are considering or have already crossed the rubicon and once they've voted tory that represents a significant ongoing threat to old class based voting patterns - just not in any way close to numbers like 47%.

I also think labour is a long way down the road of severing its roots with its historical working class constituency, I just think that will be mainly represented by people not voting with occasional swings to challenger parties like eg brexit party.
 
Proper Tidy said:
I'm not though. I'm suggesting he's interpreting data in line with his worldview, something everybody is guilty of and something he has past form for given previous errors.

Anyway I maintain my position, based on my worldview and biases, that there is no way one in every two working class voters will put a cross next to a fucking tory. I recognise that there are working class voters who are considering or have already crossed the rubicon and once they've voted tory that represents a significant ongoing threat to old class based voting patterns - just not in any way close to numbers like 47%.

I also think labour is a long way down the road of severing its roots with its historical working class constituency, I just think that will be mainly represented by people not voting with occasional swings to challenger parties like eg brexit party.
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I don't disagree with any of that with the exception of your view on the number of rubicon crossers we will see.

There are old blokes in their 70's in my local who have voted Labour their entire lives who won't this time because of Brexit. You are right that some of them are in the 'fuck the lot of them' camp but many are planning to vote Tory.
 
Proper Tidy said:
Never knew sheffield hallam was so posh. Labour really fucked it putting up that arsehole didn't they
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It's got the very posh bits of the city in, the parts even doctors can't afford to buy...as well as lots of students. It used to be even worse, the poshest seat in the whole country.

I think it would be fucked anyway, as the Tory vote returned to the libs to keep labour out. But, yeah, putting that arsehole up really didn't fucking help at all.
 
belboid said:
It's got the very posh bits of the city in, the parts even doctors can't afford to buy...as well as lots of students. It used to be even worse, the poshest seat in the whole country.

I think it would be fucked anyway, as the Tory vote returned to the libs to keep labour out. But, yeah, putting that arsehole up really didn't fucking help at all.
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Do you live in Sheffield Hallam Belboid?
 
Smokeandsteam said:
There are old blokes in their 70's in my local who have voted Labour their entire lives who won't this time because of Brexit. You are right that some of them are in the 'fuck the lot of them' camp but many are planning to vote Tory.
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My parents have always voted labour and dad was even a union shop steward, but they stopped voting labour a few years ago because of the state of the party.
 
WouldBe said:
My parents have always voted labour and dad was even a union shop steward, but they stopped voting labour a few years ago because of the state of the party.
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Anecdotes do not equal statistically useful evidence :hmm:

And anyway, you're insanely biased against Labour yourself, if your occasional recent posts are anything to go by. Are they?
 
Bit weird William. Wouldbe's mam & dad dont like Corbyn, like 80% of the rest of the old people in the country. I dont think that should be much of a surprise.
 
killer b said:
Bit weird William. Wouldbe's mam & dad dont like Corbyn, like 80% of the rest of the old people in the country. I dont think that should be much of a surprise.
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It's not them I'm criticising, at all. And yes, if they dislike Corbyn they're not alone.
But it's WouldBe himself that I think isn't capable of being objective.
 
I dunno, it looks like you're the one struggling with objectivity here tbh. Some people are just talking about people in their 70s not voting labour anymore. The data - and doorstep conversations, and literally everything we know about the voting intentions of the older cohort right now - says that's true.
 
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