Political polling

[brogdale]

Someone has reweighted that Kantar poll to 2017 turnout.

innit?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

New Survation poll that canvassed voters on the basis of who was actually standing in their constituency rather than a generic list of parties. They are claiming theirs is the first poll to do this in this election:

 

[chilango]

Don't trust the Polls.

I've been ignoring YouGov's emails and will then tactically answer them "in response to Labour's manifesto". Wait for the surge

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Someone has reweighted that Kantar poll to 2017 turnout.

Thanks for posting that. I needed a bit of good news today.

 

[killer b]

Thanks for posting that. I needed a bit of good news today.

whether this kind of 'reweighting' is possible from the data they provided has been disputed by polling people I've read. sorry.

 

[Whagwan]

Still can't see much point really even looking at polls when they were so close last time.

 

[cupid_stunt]

New Survation poll that canvassed voters on the basis of who was actually standing in their constituency rather than a generic list of parties. They are claiming theirs is the first poll to do this in this election:

At 14%, that's one hell of a lead compared to their poll last weekend, which was only 8%, because Survation tends to give a lower lead than most other polling companies.

They also polled well in 2015 giving the Tories a 6% lead compared to the 6.6% result, and in 2017 when they gave the Tories a 1% lead compared to the 2.5% result, making them the most accurate by a country mile.

 

[Kaka Tim]

All the polling is showing a substantial tory lead that is showing no signs of decreasing (if anything - its growing) . The labour surge and wonky polling last time was atypical - there is no indication that it will happen again. Brexit and the toxicity of corbyn are likely to deliver a tory majority government led by boris johnson. I really hope im wrong - but i see people all over facebook and on here seeming to assume that jezz-mania and da kidz are going to pull it out the bag again. I would really really like that to be true - but i am very much fearing the worse.

 

[brogdale]

All the polling is showing a substantial tory lead that is showing no signs of decreasing (if anything - its growing) . The labour surge and wonky polling last time was atypical - there is no indication that it will happen again. Brexit and the toxicity of corbyn are likely to deliver a tory majority government led by boris johnson. I really hope im wrong - but i see people all over facebook and on here seeming to assume that jezz-mania and da kidz are going to pull it out the bag again. I would really really like that to be true - but i am very much fearing the worse.

Yeah, the polling is certainly signalling that atm. With the Brexit Party numbers collapsing faster than the LDs, it's hard to see how the 10 point(ish) tory lead will be eroded:

 

[Smokeandsteam]

There are definite trends here:

1. Tory vote solid.
2. BP collapse
3. LD ticking down
4. Well over 70% of the electorate are backing the two establishments parties
5. Labour needs to start eating the LD vote now

 

[chilango]

Fuck.

yuk. hate this generational stuff.

but does tally with what i saw in 2017

 

[belboid]

It's not really surprising that the Brexit vote is collapsing, since they are now only standing in half the seats, its gonna have a bit of an impact.

 

[brogdale]

There are definite trends here:

1. Tory vote solid.
2. BP collapse
3. LD ticking down
4. Well over 70% of the electorate are backing the two establishments parties
5. Labour needs to start eating the LD vote now

Unfortunately the polling is not really suggesting that the tory vote is solid...more like expanding.

 

[chilango]

I think there's still at least three things that the polling isn't showing;

the possibility of a lib dem collapse in labour/tory fights
youth votes
vote distribution (e.g. Tories piling up votes from UKIP etc in safe seats)

So...I remain optimistic that it'll be closer the headline polls suggest.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's not really surprising that the Brexit vote is collapsing, since they are now only standing in half the seats, its gonna have a bit of an impact.

Esp. as most of the polling companies have removed them from the options, in areas where they are not standing.

But, it's funny seeing them drop from 25%+ to as little as 4% now.

 

[brogdale]

I think there's still at least three things that the polling isn't showing;

the possibility of a lib dem collapse in labour/tory fights
youth votes
vote distribution (e.g. Tories piling up votes from UKIP etc in safe seats)

So...I remain optimistic that it'll be closer the headline polls suggest.

Certainly yes to the latter; the vermin never got their way with the boundaries review to favour their vote spread...I suppose we can expect that if/when Johnson gets his majority?

 

[binka]

There was something on one of the live news updates the other day (guardian I think) where someone had been on radio 4 saying she'd done a focus group where they asked what messages were getting through from the election, just under 50% said nothing, the highest was around 5% for Jacob Rees Mogg's Grenfell bullshit and every other issue was at 1-2%. She went on to say that for the majority of people the election hasn't even registered with them yet and they won't start to engage until the final fortnight, which I think matches what happened in 2017 where at the same stage everyone was saying it would be a Tory landslide

 

[brogdale]

There was something on one of the live news updates the other day (guardian I think) where someone had been on radio 4 saying she'd done a focus group where they asked what messages were getting through from the election, just under 50% said nothing, the highest was around 5% for Jacob Rees Mogg's Grenfell bullshit and every other issue was at 1-2%. She went on to say that for the majority of people the election hasn't even registered with them yet and they won't start to engage until the final fortnight, which I think matches what happened in 2017 where at the same stage everyone was saying it would be a Tory landslide

That's right, but I think tonight's ITV head to head might resonate.

 

[killer b]

This from Ashcroft?

Some interesting detail in a recent Ashcroft poll about how much individual political stories cut through:

 

[binka]

This from Ashcroft?

Ah right must have been her quoting that then

 

[Supine]

That's right, but I think tonight's ITV head to head might resonate.

The big question is for who. Biggest gaff goes to...

 

[Supine]

Posted without comment!

 

[Supine]

Today's YouGov:-

CON 29% (31), LAB 42% (40), LD 11% (12), UKIP 12% (12); Govt app -40

Fieldwork 4th & 5th March.

Mods, might it be a good idea to sticky a poll thread for the run in to 2015? Just a thought.

feck! Just accidentally looked at the OP polling figures and almost had a polling heart attack.

 

[Kaka Tim]

There was something on one of the live news updates the other day (guardian I think) where someone had been on radio 4 saying she'd done a focus group where they asked what messages were getting through from the election, just under 50% said nothing, the highest was around 5% for Jacob Rees Mogg's Grenfell bullshit and every other issue was at 1-2%. She went on to say that for the majority of people the election hasn't even registered with them yet and they won't start to engage until the final fortnight, which I think matches what happened in 2017 where at the same stage everyone was saying it would be a Tory landslide

this does not feel remotely like 2017. the wheels started coming off the tory campaign almost straight away and you could sense the excitement around the labour campaign as it steadily closed the gap. Right now the opposite is happening as the tories are hoovering up the brexit vote. And brexit is far more the defining issue than it was last time. I want to be wrong but I think we are fucked.

 

[miktheword]

Posted without comment!

and, whilst all polling this week will show a misleading 'BXP not standing' increase in Tory headline figures, Kantar also asked two questions prior to voting intention. 1) Why are you voting /most important issue (Brexit leading q)
2) who do you think would make best PM? (BJ obvious lead atm) putting some in mindset to vote Tory in q3.

Apparently, without weighting for 'intention / likelihood to vote', the lead would be 10%

 

[binka]

this does not feel remotely like 2017. the wheels started coming off the tory campaign almost straight away and you could sense the excitement around the labour campaign as it steadily closed the gap. Right now the opposite is happening as the tories are hoovering up the brexit vote. And brexit is far more the defining issue than it was last time. I want to be wrong but I think we are fucked.

Come on Kaka Tim there's no need for that kind of negativity. I am 100% sure everything will work out in the end

 

[cupid_stunt]

ComRes has the Tory lead up 3% to 11%.

 

[Mr Moose]

this does not feel remotely like 2017. the wheels started coming off the tory campaign almost straight away and you could sense the excitement around the labour campaign as it steadily closed the gap. Right now the opposite is happening as the tories are hoovering up the brexit vote. And brexit is far more the defining issue than it was last time. I want to be wrong but I think we are fucked.

The momentum of the Tory campaign plummeted very rapidly in 2017. Brexit got them over the line then and probably will do now.

However you cannot escape the feeling that the Tories are vulnerable in a number of regions. There will be enough votes against them to unseat them in dozens of constituencies if played right. If they don’t get an overall majority, huge votes in rural Toryshires won’t mean anything. The bastards are friendless now and won’t get support from anyone else without massive compromise.

 

[killer b]

The bastards are friendless now and won’t get support from anyone else without massive compromise.

sure sure.

 

[brogdale]

sure sure.