Political polling

[chilango]

I always get predictions wrong so here goes...

I'm not seeing anything on the ground to suggest a late Labour surge.

Everywhere, and everyone, is quiet. Nobody seems to be shifting. Apart from the collapse of the BxP.

The polls seem to back that up.

I don't think it'll result in a Tory landslide though, just generally stacking up votes in safe seats for all sides.

The difference between a Tory minority propped up by Swinson's succesor and a working majority will be the Balance between Labour losing Northern seats and the Tories losing Southern seats. I'm not confident. I

 

[Pickman's model]

My prediction? It will end in tears

 

[mauvais]

It's alright, we'll just try again in another few months.

 

[danny la rouge]

It’s always interesting to watch these things from a slightly different mainstream atmosphere. I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say that the public discourse in Scotland has diverged from the U.K. as a whole. Here there are different events and different players and the last few years have played out differently.

That is not to say that the same large trends are not affecting Scotland. Neoliberalism is still the dominant establishment ideology. The interests of business remain the same. The battle playing out between neoliberalism and neoconservativism is still going to have a bearing on Scotland’s future. The media class in Scotland is very much a part of the U.K. media class. And so on.

But all that said, the party system here is very different. Labour in Scotland has no presence. I look at the party grassroots in Stirling and just don’t see it. There is no activist base. The foot soldiers are the local councillors. That’s about it. And they’re not visible. The SNP, on the other hand, can mount stalls in the high streets of neighbouring towns. There can be a busy stall on a Saturday in Dunblane, Bridge of Allan and in Stirling at the bottom of Kings Street simultaneously. (Maybe in other places in the constituency too, I can only report my own observations). Labour can’t do that.

The Tories hold Stirling by a very slim majority. My feeling is that they’ll lose it. I think the SNP’s showing in Scotland in terms of seats will be up on 2017, but not as high as 2015. I think Labour will lose seats. I also think Swinson will lose her seat.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I also think Swinson will lose her seat.

That would be truly amazing, and bloody funny.

 

[Sue]

So danny la rouge, what do you think the scores on the Scottish doors will be? Assuming Alister Jack will hang on to his seat?

 

[danny la rouge]

That would be truly amazing, and bloody funny.

The swing she won with in 2017 was
7.13% (from the SNP). But this time the SNP needs only a 5.15% swing to take it back. I think they’re going to do it.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

That would be truly amazing, and bloody funny.

It’d certainly take the sting out of a Tory victory & brighten the festive hols.

 

[Sue]

First Scottish poll of the campaign out today.

First Scottish election poll predicts electoral wipeout for Labour

Can't read that article weepiper without registering. What're the numbers?

 

[danny la rouge]

So danny la rouge, what do you think the scores on the Scottish doors will be? Assuming Alister Jack will hang on to his seat?

I wouldn’t like to put exact numbers on it, but I think Jack will stay in Dumfries (Tory). The SNP might lose North East Fife, though. But overall they’ll be up. Labour will lose most of their central belt seats. Maybe all but one.

 

[Sue]

I wouldn’t like to put exact numbers on it, but I think Jack will stay in Dumfries (Tory). The SNP might lose North East Fife, though. But overall they’ll be up. Labour will lose some of their central belt seats.

Thanks. Dumfries and Galloway (though its name/boundaries have changed a couple of times since) is my old constituency so I feel personally embarrassed that it's so Tory. Bloody farmers.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Can't read that article weepiper without registering. What're the numbers?

That's odd, I can without registering.

Anyway...

Spoiler: Full article

The first Scottish opinion poll is proving disappointing to Labour, showing the party stands to lose all but one of its seats in Scotland.

Of the seven seats held by Labour, only Edinburgh South's incumbent Ian Muray would return to the House of Commons according to the Panelbase study for the Sunday Times.

This would not be the first time Mr Murray would be the sole Labour representative in Scotland as he was also the only Labour MP north of the border in 2015.

According to an analysis from Strathclyde University Professor Sir John Curtice, the SNP are also on course for another electoral win in Scotland.

SNP could see their sear count rise from 35 to 41, with support rising from 37% to 40%.

The poll shows that the party only stands to lose North East Fife, which is the seat with the smallest majority in the UK after Stephen Gethins only secured two votes more than the Lib Dems in 2017.


If the poll is accurate, support for Conservatives could also see a minor drop of 1% as the party is expected to lose just one Scottish seat.

Stirling is predicted to move from Stephen Kerr to SNP MEP Alyn Smith.

On the issues voters believe to be harmful to the UK, 37% of Scots said Scottish independence, with 39% saying the same of Brexit.

Almost half of all those surveyed said Scottish independence would be a "good opportunity" for the country, at 45%, while just 24% said the same of Brexit.

According to the poll, Nicola Sturgeon is the only leader who has Scottish approval, with a positive approval rating of +3%.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's popularity rose slightly from -36% to -34%, while the Labour leader also improved but still found himself trailing the Tory leader on -41%.

SNP candidate for Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman commented: “Only the SNP can beat the Tories in Scotland.

“While we take nothing for granted, the SNP is in a strong position – and we’re well and truly the party with the momentum.

“This poll underlines the fact that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems can take seats off the Tories.

“Boris Johnson is desperate to get a majority, force through a disastrous Brexit and inflict yet more years of Tory misery on Scotland.

“The only way to stop him is to unite around the SNP and help lock him out of Downing Street.

“A vote for the SNP is a vote to escape Brexit and put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.”

 

[Proper Tidy]

How do the SNP stay insulated from being in govt for so long? I mean, labour are eternally in govt here in wales but it's a very apathetic and disillusioned base with labour barely able to cobble together a majority. SNP seem to manage to marry being party of govt and trusted to govern with challenger upstarts. From outside looking in, doesn't look to me like it's all based on indy position either...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Britain Elects tracker of this week's polls.

 

[Sue]

That's odd, I can without registering.

Anyway...

Spoiler: Full article

The first Scottish opinion poll is proving disappointing to Labour, showing the party stands to lose all but one of its seats in Scotland.

Of the seven seats held by Labour, only Edinburgh South's incumbent Ian Muray would return to the House of Commons according to the Panelbase study for the Sunday Times.

This would not be the first time Mr Murray would be the sole Labour representative in Scotland as he was also the only Labour MP north of the border in 2015.

According to an analysis from Strathclyde University Professor Sir John Curtice, the SNP are also on course for another electoral win in Scotland.

SNP could see their sear count rise from 35 to 41, with support rising from 37% to 40%.

The poll shows that the party only stands to lose North East Fife, which is the seat with the smallest majority in the UK after Stephen Gethins only secured two votes more than the Lib Dems in 2017.


If the poll is accurate, support for Conservatives could also see a minor drop of 1% as the party is expected to lose just one Scottish seat.

Stirling is predicted to move from Stephen Kerr to SNP MEP Alyn Smith.

On the issues voters believe to be harmful to the UK, 37% of Scots said Scottish independence, with 39% saying the same of Brexit.

Almost half of all those surveyed said Scottish independence would be a "good opportunity" for the country, at 45%, while just 24% said the same of Brexit.

According to the poll, Nicola Sturgeon is the only leader who has Scottish approval, with a positive approval rating of +3%.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's popularity rose slightly from -36% to -34%, while the Labour leader also improved but still found himself trailing the Tory leader on -41%.

SNP candidate for Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman commented: “Only the SNP can beat the Tories in Scotland.

“While we take nothing for granted, the SNP is in a strong position – and we’re well and truly the party with the momentum.

“This poll underlines the fact that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems can take seats off the Tories.

“Boris Johnson is desperate to get a majority, force through a disastrous Brexit and inflict yet more years of Tory misery on Scotland.

“The only way to stop him is to unite around the SNP and help lock him out of Downing Street.

“A vote for the SNP is a vote to escape Brexit and put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.”

Thanks! You can only read a maximum number of articles a month without registering and I'd hit the limit.

 

[danny la rouge]

Thanks. Dumfries and Galloway (though its name/boundaries have changed a couple of times since) is my old constituency so I feel personally embarrassed that it's so Tory. Bloody farmers.

The Tory campaign is targeting Unionist sympathy, hoping to be the antiSNP vote. In Dumfries I think it’ll work.

 

[Sue]

The Tory campaign is targeting Unionist sympathy, hoping to be the antiSNP vote. In Dumfries I think it’ll work.

Yep. There's the traditional Tory farming vote then the anti-Indy feeling (as evidenced by Indyref) in the non-Tory bits. Imagine Labour aren't trying too hard either...

 

[danny la rouge]

Yep. There's the traditional Tory farming vote then the anti-Indy feeling (as evidenced by Indyref) in the non-Tory bits. Imagine Labour aren't trying too hard either...

I don’t think Labour has the resources to try hard. But you’re right, some of their vote is working class Unionist and will go Tory.

 

[redsquirrel]

How do the SNP stay insulated from being in govt for so long? I mean, labour are eternally in govt here in wales but it's a very apathetic and disillusioned base with labour barely able to cobble together a majority. SNP seem to manage to marry being party of govt and trusted to govern with challenger upstarts. From outside looking in, doesn't look to me like it's all based on indy position either...

They can play Scottish government against UK government. After all that's what Labour councils do up and down the country - it's not us it's them in Westminster. Added factor of independence just strengthens that.

 

[redsquirrel]

I always get predictions wrong so here goes...

I'm not seeing anything on the ground to suggest a late Labour surge.
...
I don't think it'll result in a Tory landslide though, just generally stacking up votes in safe seats for all sides.

That's my prediction also (FWIW I called both the EU referendum and 2017 GE wrong). I can easily see a Tory majority but I don't see a huge Tory majority (at least at this stage) there is just not enough swing seats in play.

I also think Swinson will lose her seat.

Fingers crossed.

 

[danny la rouge]

How do the SNP stay insulated from being in govt for so long? I mean, labour are eternally in govt here in wales but it's a very apathetic and disillusioned base with labour barely able to cobble together a majority. SNP seem to manage to marry being party of govt and trusted to govern with challenger upstarts. From outside looking in, doesn't look to me like it's all based on indy position either...

It isn’t based all on Indy position. The SNP is the anti Tory vote. Lots of people who aren’t completely happy with the SNP would nevertheless not vote Tory.

 

[weepiper]

How do the SNP stay insulated from being in govt for so long? I mean, labour are eternally in govt here in wales but it's a very apathetic and disillusioned base with labour barely able to cobble together a majority. SNP seem to manage to marry being party of govt and trusted to govern with challenger upstarts. From outside looking in, doesn't look to me like it's all based on indy position either...

It's at least partly because most people here think they've done a good job in government. There are obviously people who don't, but certainly most people I know irl like what they've seen and are happy for them to carry on.

 

[kebabking]

It's at least partly because most people here think they've done a good job in government. There are obviously people who don't, but certainly most people I know irl like what they've seen and are happy for them to carry on.

∆∆∆This.∆∆∆

When I lived in Scotland - admitted over a decade ago - the SNP, whatever you might think of their particular policies, were the only political party who at least looked like they could find their own arse in the dark.

I grudgingly - for I'm a unionist - voted SNP in both local and Holyrood elections because, having had the pleasure of living in the one (Labour) party state of Glasgow with a Labour Scottish Government in Edinburgh, I needed boring stuff like the roads being gritted and the school meals service to work - labour in Scotland couldn't even get achieve that level of competence, and the SNP did at least look like it could.

I'm still a unionist, but Sturgeon is the stand out political figure in the UK but about 50,000 miles, she's always had an air of diligent competence about her - if your house flooded, or you got run over, she's the one political figure I can think of who would inspire confidence if she turned up to deal with it. The rest are just oxygen thieves in comparison.

Actually, not just in comparison...

 

[kabbes]

Sturgeon is the stand out political figure in the UK but about 50,000 miles

Are you sure it’s not by 500 miles and then by 500 more?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Latest Survation poll...

 

[weepiper]

But all that said, the party system here is very different. Labour in Scotland has no presence. I look at the party grassroots in Stirling and just don’t see it. There is no activist base. The foot soldiers are the local councillors. That’s about it. And they’re not visible. The SNP, on the other hand, can mount stalls in the high streets of neighbouring towns. There can be a busy stall on a Saturday in Dunblane, Bridge of Allan and in Stirling at the bottom of Kings Street simultaneously. (Maybe in other places in the constituency too, I can only report my own observations). Labour can’t do that.

Just saw this tweet which perfectly illustrates your point (but with a Tory).

 

[treelover]

Britain Elects tracker of this week's polls.

isn't that roughly the same as the 1983 election vote?, Labour seem to have a bedrock vote of about 26/28% when presenting with a left wing leader/manifesto.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A fairly large shift in the leaders approval ratings over the last week.



Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

The long wait is nearly over

 

[elbows]