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Since when? One of the key features of election night in 2017 was Labour MPs expecting a drubbing 'cause of their canvas returns ending up with increased majorities. There's a substantial mass of voters who aren't getting picked up by canvassers anymore.
it goes back way before 17. They're nothing more than an indication, and have always been massively inaccurate. Loads of people (especially young uns) dont answer the door, quite a few have always just said 'yes' to every canvasser.

In terms of conversations, we have decent ones with 'dont knows' and brief ones with labour voters will politely saying goodbye to tories. You get to hear what topics seem to matter, which is good for how to target materials. Thankfully little on Brexit so far on the NE Derbyshire doorstep.
 
Seriously, though...nearly a quarter of London voters considering that racist Bailey.:(
 
Going to be very dependent on turnout this time. Got my works xmas do on the 12th, so, vote before getting pissed or get pissed then vote? Choices, choices:oops:
 
Yougov has done one of their big polls, 11,000 sample, and broken it down by regions, if this bears anything like what happens on polling day, it's going to be grim for Labour, especially in the midlands & north.

The Labour vote has taken its hardest hit in the North West, with support for the party falling by a massive 25 percentage points to 30% since 2017. Worse still for Labour, this now puts them behind the Conservatives (33%) in a region the party considers its own.

Overall Labour remains ahead in the North East by 6%, London 10% & Wales 1%.

Tories ahead in North West by 3%, Yorkshire and Humberside 5%, East Midlands 23%, West Midlands 20%, East 27%, South East 18% & South West 20%.

The 3 underlined regions are the lead over second place LibDems.

The SNP is 20% ahead of the Tories in Scotland, Labour has dropped to 4th place, 1% behind the LibDems.

Regional voting intentions show both main parties down everywhere, with Labour hit particularly hard | YouGov
 
These are compared with the actual 2017 results right? I think a fairer comparison would be with polling at the equivalent stage in the campaign last time.
 
Yougov has done one of their big polls, 11,000 sample, and broken it down by regions, if this bears anything like what happens on polling day, it's going to be grim for Labour, especially in the midlands & north.



Overall Labour remains ahead in the North East by 6%, London 10% & Wales 1%.

Tories ahead in North West by 3%, Yorkshire and Humberside 5%, East Midlands 23%, West Midlands 20%, East 27%, South East 18% & South West 20%.

The 3 underlined regions are the lead over second place LibDems.

The SNP is 20% ahead of the Tories in Scotland, Labour has dropped to 4th place, 1% behind the LibDems.

Regional voting intentions show both main parties down everywhere, with Labour hit particularly hard | YouGov

When these were originally posted on twitter people pointed out the data set was a few weeks old
 
When these were originally posted on twitter people pointed out the data set was a few weeks old

That's only partly true, as the field work was carried out from 17th Oct., and right up to the 4th Nov., and there hasn't been much polling movement in that time, although still plenty to play for over the coming weeks.

Anyway, this weekend's polls...

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Opinium shows a drop of 4% on their last poll, which at 16% was at least 4% above other polls published at the same time. Panelbase is down 1%, Deltapoll unchanged, and yougov up 2% - all within the 'margin of error'.
 
Yougov has done one of their big polls, 11,000 sample, and broken it down by regions, if this bears anything like what happens on polling day, it's going to be grim for Labour, especially in the midlands & north.



Overall Labour remains ahead in the North East by 6%, London 10% & Wales 1%.

Tories ahead in North West by 3%, Yorkshire and Humberside 5%, East Midlands 23%, West Midlands 20%, East 27%, South East 18% & South West 20%.

The 3 underlined regions are the lead over second place LibDems.

The SNP is 20% ahead of the Tories in Scotland, Labour has dropped to 4th place, 1% behind the LibDems.

Regional voting intentions show both main parties down everywhere, with Labour hit particularly hard | YouGov

Look on the bright side. Yougov now thinks Scotland is part of the world and not part of the UKScreenshot_20191110-074311.jpg
 
Wow. Those polls are very consistent :(

TBF, they were at this stage in 2015, although giving the Tories even bigger leads, a downward trend didn't start to happen until about 2 weeks before the election.

Although at that point different polling companies, whilst showing a downward trend, were all over the place, with leads between 1% & about 12% :facepalm:
 
That will probably put the willies up the Tories.
Fieldwork before Farage's 'reveal' and we've yet to get any idea how that might play out with the 'Remainer" 2017 Tory voters. Smithson has some DeltaPoll numbers (again before Johnson went full Farage):

upload_2019-11-12_13-55-18.png

Could get interesting if that substantial leakage to the yellow vermin holds or increases following the Faragist alliance.
 
Yougov is now excluding parties not standing in respondents' constituencies, which is logical.

Respondents were shown only some of the names of candidates standing in their constituency, meaning that Brexit Party voters can no longer vote for the Brexit Party in the survey.

Candidates who have stood down as part of the "Remain alliance" between the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens have also been removed.

This polling method will be used by YouGov for the rest of the campaign.

General election: Conservatives enjoy 14-point lead over Labour - poll

Meaning the Brexit party is now on only 4%, Tories on 42%, Labour on 28% and Lib Dems on 15% - Tory lead of 14%.
 
Yougov is now excluding parties not standing in respondents' constituencies, which is logical.



Meaning the Brexit party is now on only 4%, Tories on 42%, Labour on 28% and Lib Dems on 15% - Tory lead of 14%.
OK, this is now a 'spoons enhanced response :beer:...but...I refuse to believe that 42% of my compatriots are that fucking stupid.
 
There is a possibility that by taking themselves out of the tory held seats, the BP reduce their 'appeal'/make themselves an irrelevance across the board. Who knows, but it's something to look out for in the (next) weekend's clutch of polls.
 
There is a possibility that by taking themselves out of the tory held seats, the BP reduce their 'appeal'/make themselves an irrelevance across the board. Who knows, but it's something to look out for in the (next) weekend's clutch of polls.
Labour should have course be pushing the 'tory/bp coalition line' like mad. Spitting image used to do a puppet of David Owen with a wee David Steele in his top pocket. If Labour strategists have any nous they do one of Johnson with farage in his top pocket. The other way round works too.
 
There is a possibility that by taking themselves out of the tory held seats, the BP reduce their 'appeal'/make themselves an irrelevance across the board. Who knows, but it's something to look out for in the (next) weekend's clutch of polls.

This is possibly one of the unintended consequences of the announcement. If the BP have relinquished the ownership of the leave brand in the popular imagination then it’s hard to see where they go next but to oblivion. Farage was mental not to have announced 20-40 seats at the outset where they could realistically win. But then of course, he’s not bothered about the party - only what it delivers for him
 
It’s also notable that the LD support is beginning to crumble to Labour:



The political commentariat always predict the end of two party politics (and to be fair it is now 3 with the SNP) citing polls, euro elections, local govt and by-elections as evidence. But at the General Election this type of narrowing always happens
 
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