Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
It won't come to pass, of course, but it might cut a few more of the strands holding up the sword that sits over May's neck.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Doubt that it will, but the wounds inflicted will dog the vermin for a long while.
hot air baboon
Well-Known Member
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
It's for the Euros. I suspect GE figures would be different.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Survation are in:
That 6% point Brx lead over Lab fitting nicely (between BMG & Opinium) into the wide range of poll leads suggested by the pollsters' recent numbers:
Graphic from Smithson's recent post about the lack of pollster 'herding' wrt the Euros and the impact of (differential) turnout(s).
That 18% "Brexit Party" lead from YouGov is surely the freakiest, and i still think it's an outlier 
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
OTWT, but if they're calling the differential turnout correctly...who knows...they may be on to something. I mean, are Lab supporters really going to be arsed to get off down to the polling station to support their Leavy/Remainy party?That 18% "Brexit Party" lead from YouGov is surely the freakiest, and i still think it's an outlier
Fair point, and tbh, when I posted the above, I was actually thinking about differential turnout, and wondering how much that would have an effect next week -- in this particular election.
On the other hand though, Labour must still be reasonably OK at the traditional, old style "getting the vote out" thing, even in the most unpromising of elections??
And with Smithson's graphic, it might be sensible to aim for the boring medium as a guess -- ten-per-centish "Brexit Party" lead??
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Hmmm...I hearing quite a few tales of Lab activist attitudes/behaviour not too dissimilar to the tory activist strike going on atm. Not sure the fabled ground-war will be as effective as normal.Fair point, and tbh, when I posted the above, I was actually thinking about differential turnout, and wondering how much that would have an effect next week -- in this particular election.
On the other hand though, Labour must still be reasonably OK at the traditional, old style "getting the vote out" thing, even in the most unpromising of elections??
There isn't any on-the-ground campaigning or door knocking for the euros. everyone is still fucked from the locals last week.On the other hand though, Labour must still be reasonably OK at the traditional, old style "getting the vote out" thing, even in the most unpromising of elections??
Oh true, nothing like the 2017 GE or anything. But the Tory strike will be near to all-out which will slightly help Labour ....maybe?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Londoners & other Metro CLPs don't have that excuse, though. I just don't think that the troops are too keen to go over the top for this push.
I've had a reasonably overview of the Labour ground war for pretty much every election campaign - local or general - since I was 6. They never do anything for the euros.Is that your direct knowledge locally? I was just guessing there, to be honest
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I had labour on my door the other day for the euros. They're opening spiel was "we're sorry this vote is happening -but not our fault - we're trying to bring the country together". A pretty dismal appeal - remainers will go with green or lib dem - leavers with brexit party, labour are only going to get their hardcore loyalists. I cant see that labour going for 2nd ref now will hurt them - the damage is already done - cant see any brexit supporters leaving labour now who haven't already left.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
So Labours strategy should be to hope the damage done to the Tory Party will put them into government? That's similar to the strategy they used in the run up to 2015, that UKIP would take enough votes off the Tories to stop them forming a government, didn't work too well them.
If Labour want to win marginals like Shipley, and they should, they need to appeal to at least some of those that voted Leave, coming out and backing a 2nd referendum hurts that. A Labour Party aiming for a majority government should not be backing a 2nd referendum.
EDIT: If anything would encourage me to vote Labour its the sliming back of "Remainers"s to the LDs.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I don't think so; (understandably) there seems to be more urgency associated with these Euros than previous ones. From what I've heard, London region have urged CLPs to take leaflets above & beyond the postal drop and asked them to return their campaigning events calendar so that MEP candidates can join CLP events etc.
It's an exceptional Euro election and things do seem very different. It's just that my mates reckon the troops aren't too keen to get out there for these elections...even the ones going out are using the interaction with punters to talk about the GLA/Mayoral rather than Brexit.
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