Political polling

[Kaka Tim]

So Labours strategy should be to hope the damage done to the Tory Party will put them into government? That's similar to the strategy they used in the run up to 2015, that UKIP would take enough votes off the Tories to stop them forming a government, didn't work too well them.

If Labour want to win marginals like Shipley, and they should, they need to appeal to at least some of those that voted Leave, coming out and backing a 2nd referendum hurts that. A Labour Party aiming for a majority government should not be backing a 2nd referendum.

EDIT: If anything would encourage me to vote Labour its the sliming back of "Remainers"s to the LDs.

its kind of all options are shit though for labour isn't it? I just cant see any learvers for whom brexit is a major factor voting labour - they see them as remain in all but name
anyway.

 

[hot air baboon]

I guess Preston labour must just be idle bastards then...

All Quiet on the Preston front

 

[killer b]

Comres Westminster out this morning:

 

[Teaboy]

You really have to wonder what's in it for Labour to do a deal with May.

 

[killer b]

You really have to wonder what's in it for Labour to do a deal with May.

Nothing, so they won't.

 

[brogdale]

Nothing, so they won't.

Quite, but keeping the talks going (& maintaining the 'betrayal' vacuum) does appear to be disproportionately heaping the damage on the the tories.

It'll be all about how the 20-30% of Brexit-driven punters revert back to their former habits.

 

[brogdale]

Britain Elects have updated their (e2a Westminster) tracker graph today...and it's quite a sight for the 'main' parties:

 

[brogdale]

...and without the pop-up numbers in the way, the full glory of the tory demise can be appreciated:

 

[brogdale]

Today's Ipsos-MORI Westminster:

 

[brogdale]

 

[killer b]

Yougov have the latest leader faves poll today too

 

[killer b]

(while minus 50 is still a shocker, it's interesting that it's stayed stable since march while may's takes a hit)

 

[kabbes]

(while minus 50 is still a shocker, it's interesting that it's stayed stable since march while may's takes a hit)

It’s hard to get much worse though when you’re already rock bottom

 

[killer b]

It’s hard to get much worse though when you’re already rock bottom

that's a reasonable point, it's currently lower than it was before the 2017 election campaign.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think labours position is less about keeping voters - and more about keeping the party together. A significant chunk of labour mps and some of the unions are very opposed to a 2nd ref. Votes wise - im not convinced going pro-remain would hurt labours voteshare more than it helps, but its more a case of its own internal divisions have made it politically impossible for labour to take this position - at least up until now.

 

[Wilf]

I think labours position is less about keeping voters - and more about keeping the party together. A significant chunk of labour mps and some of the unions are very opposed to a 2nd ref. Votes wise - im not convinced going pro-remain would hurt labours voteshare more than it helps, but its more a case of its own internal divisions had made politically impossible for labour to take this position - at least up until now.

I think that's right and I also think that wiser heads in the party know that's what they are doing. Trouble is it doesn't leave the party well placed to start giving out direct, unambiguous messages on everything else.

 

[newbie]

If Corbyn holds his party together and retires from a position of unchallenged stability in 2020 (say) he'll go down in history as a successful leader. Not great, perhaps, because he never really got the chance, but a good, solid performance in very trying circumstances.

That's in contrast with not just May but with every tory leader going back to Major at least, whose record ended in utter failure and with their reputation shredded.

 

[ska invita]

that's a reasonable point, it's currently lower than it was before the 2017 election campaign.

Will Corbyn lead Labour into the next election?

 

[brogdale]

Unlikely to persist much beyond the Euros, but here we are...Tories in 3rd in Westminster polling:



Are they at peak fucked?

 

[ferrelhadley]

From November 2017
Political polling
Till March 2018
Political polling
52 posts over 16 months.
Since March 2019
168 posts.
Now my stats might be a wee bit rusty, but is there some kind of correlation here?

(dont worry this is not a joke for you lot)

 

[brogdale]

From November 2017
Political polling
Till March 2018
Political polling
52 posts over 16 months.
Since March 2019
168 posts.
Now my stats might be a wee bit rusty, but is there some kind of correlation here?

(dont worry this is not a joke for you lot)

go on...

 

[newbie]

Unlikely to persist much beyond the Euros, but here we are...Tories in 3rd in Westminster polling:


Are they at peak fucked?

hope not

 

[Crispy]

*magic roundabout music plays*

 

[Cid]

*magic roundabout music plays*

The fuck?

 

[kabbes]

There’s no chance of that playing out in practice

 

[Balbi]

There’s no chance of that playing out in practice

*gestures at everything that's happened in the last three years*

 

[Balbi]

Also, Change UK. 1%. Hahahahhahahahahhahah.

Interesting though that Brexit Party + Soft Brexit Labour + Tories is a big majority now, which is the delightful opposite of last week.

 

[kabbes]

Proper general elections have election campaigns, though. Parties have manifestos that they have to defend. Look at what happened in 2017.

 

[Balbi]

Aye, but then Brexit was 18 months away. If there was a snap, it'd be a month away. And things are weird over there right now.

 

[killer b]

It's also a single poll, taken just after the Lib Dems and Brexit parties scored massive PR coups in the EP elections. Wait to see if it's sustained over multiple polls & shows over multiple polling companies before getting excited about it, never mind whether it'll survive contact with an actual election.