Political polling

[MickiQ]

So whats it predicting, A LibDem Govt? that's a Guardian feature writers wet dream and much like other wet dreams not likely to survive contact with reality.
The LibDem's are clearly going through a bit of a resurgence at the moment and will probably get more seats than their current 11 if there is an imminent GE. I can see them getting a couple of dozen may even as many as 30 but I can't see them getting back up to the 50-odd they had pre-Coalition never mind actually winning. As for the Chuckles come the next GE (whenever it may be) they are going to be naught but a memory.

 

[Dogsauce]

Lib Dems tend to take seats off the tories, strong in places like the south-west and outer London. More likely to fuck the vermin if their percentage has gone up. The complete collapse of their vote in 2015 was a significant factor in the tories winning that election.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So whats it predicting...

Just for fun, boys & girls, Electoral Calculus predicts...



So, a Lab/LD/SNP government?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Those who embrace the polarisation are doing well. No doubt the Tories will end the summer with some pro Brexit chaos monkey in charge. If they get enough of a boost in the polls they may risk going to the country calling for the Brexit voters to come out and give them a parliament to deliver it.

 

[brogdale]

All the usual caveats...but difficult not to conclude that summat's up?



Peterborough will be interesting.

 

[brogdale]

Fantasy island and all that, but Electoral Calculus gives the tories 26 seats on that polling.

 

[brogdale]

No Deal - 27%
Deal - 39%
No Brexit - 28%

 

[Proper Tidy]

Interesting that biggest share is basically the stance of the two parties getting a right kicking. Lol

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Well at least the whole clusterfuck is good for shits n giggles.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Chaos is a ladder.

 

[Dogsauce]

The Chuka effect already impacting the Lib Dem numbers

 

[Proper Tidy]

If anything like this polling held up until a GE then we'd either have a Tory/BxP/poss DUP lash up or a Lab/Lib/poss SNP/Plaid lash up

 

[ferrelhadley]

The Chuka effect already impacting the Lib Dem numbers

Never change Urban.

 

[Wilf]

Never change Urban.

Could you tell us what is the right reaction to these figures please?

 

[Benjy1992]

I never take much notice of the polls.

Under the FPTP system, the Tories and Labour will always come out the two biggest parties.

Next GE (whenever that may be) will see a hung parliament with one of Labour and the Tories the largest party.

 

[Wilf]

I never take much notice of the polls.

Under the FPTP system, the Tories and Labour will always come out the two biggest parties.

Next GE (whenever that may be) will see a hung parliament with one of Labour and the Tories the largest party.

Probably, particularly with Labour's loss of Scotland, but also the turbulence of the Brexit Party, possible libdem mini revival etc. Though of course those are signs of the FPTP system failing to deliver what it was intended to do.

 

[Supine]

 

[Wilf]

An interesting point is that 3 years on this poll is being conducted without respondents having a clue what the UK will be like post Brexit. My guess is that things will be worse on a number of fronts but I'm not up with the remainiac squawking that the sky will fall. But current discussion is more on brexit as a stalled process that has to be in-stalled, not so much on Brexit.

 

[8115]

Chaos is a ladder.

Voting intention Brexit Party 24%? Am I missing something?

 

[skyscraper101]

Poll of 'Our Next PM' last night on the BBC. Seems Stewart and his missing tie won.

 

[kabbes]

Amongst those that count, ie Tories, Johnson won by far and and the others (except Javid) were much of a muchness. Amongst those the Tories are trying to keep onside, ie leave voters, Johnson won by far and the others (except Javid) were much of a muchness. The fact that Stewart appeals to Labour voters and remainers means nothing.

 

[treelover]

Lib Dems seem to love Stewart, maybe he will cross the floor?

 

[2hats]

Details here.

 

[killer b]

The fact that Stewart appeals to Labour voters and remainders means nothing.

It doesn't mean nothing. It means the leadership contest is being used for other purposes as well as the election of the new leader of the conservative party.

Stewart is obviously speaking to an audience outside the tory membership - I'm not totally sure whether that's to do with his personal ambitions or something more strategic from the party though...

 

[kabbes]

It doesn't mean nothing. It means the leadership contest is being used for other purposes as well as the election of the new leader of the conservative party.

Stewart is obviously speaking to an audience outside the tory membership - I'm not totally sure whether that's to do with his personal ambitions or something more strategic from the party though...

Well, a more accurate way of saying my previous post is that Labour voters and remainers like Stewart more than they like the others. They don’t necessarily actually like him.

 

[killer b]

Well, a more accurate way of saying my previous post is that Labour voters and remainers like Stewart more than they like the others. They don’t necessarily actually like him.

I'm not sure how true that is. Certainly the liberal centrist commentariat love him, and that seems to be reflected in the wider population in my orbit.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Presume this is the focus on the tories in the media and the promise of ‘out by October’. Labour down to 4th

 

[killer b]

they're level with the tories, not 4th.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

they're level with the tories, not 4th.

The salient issue is the 3% shift in support from BP to Tory. Firstly, after Peterborough this is another sign that the BP momentum has faltered. Secondly, if Johnson is perceived to be trying to deliver Brexit by the BP support this movement could be a trend - we will see. Third, if my view that BJ is going to call an October election is correct this stuff becomes significant.

Labour appear on the poll in 4th place, not joint third.

 

[DownwardDog]

they're level with the tories, not 4th.

Rejoice at that news.