Political polling

[Mr Moose]

That seems to be a popular opinion atm, but I'm not sure what anyone is basing it on other than the reckons of some hyperpartisan political commentators. Surely if there's one thing the recent poll bump for the Lib Dems demonstrates it's that even the most morbid political projects can make startling gains with the right messaging right now.

Well it’s based on its low polling and a general lack of feeling of confidence. You can argue Labour is marginally ahead, but this is on a terribly low vote share. How many elections have we seen the shy Tory bounce?

And whether or not you share the concerns what you cannot feel is a sense of confidence about Labour’s project. Despite decent policies it appears hampered by issues in Brexit and antisemitism that it cannot transcend. Labour needs a reboot, needs to shed some baggage.

 

[killer b]

What is the idea that the voters labour is shedding are less likely to come back to them than tory voters based on though? You cant read that in the polls. Maybe it's true, but I've not seen anything more solid to back it up than it just being what various pricks who've called everything else wrong for the past 5 years think. I'm not accepting that as sound political analysis anymore.

 

[redsquirrel]

You started well. I'd agree with your first sentence or two.

...but then you seem to lose your grip and descend into some weird bitter rant.

Ah well

Evidence based politics!

 

[Supine]

 

[Proper Tidy]

View attachment 176328

Oh my

 

[killer b]

Lol. Fucking maniacs.

 

[Dogsauce]

They’ll be trembling in fear at that.

‘Opening an investigation’ ffs. Get over yourselves, Twitter.

 

[chilango]

It's probably just down to the fact that I cashed out my £50 a few months so haven't bothered responding to YouGov polling requests recently.

That'll have knocked a couple of % of the Labour vote.

 

[Mr Moose]

What is the idea that the voters labour is shedding are less likely to come back to them than tory voters based on though? You cant read that in the polls. Maybe it's true, but I've not seen anything more solid to back it up than it just being what various pricks who've called everything else wrong for the past 5 years think. I'm not accepting that as sound political analysis anymore.

On the fact that the Tories vote share in 2017 held up so well under a truly awful leader, that Labour hasn’t done well in the votes since the election and that the Tories may get a new leader bounce.

Like I say, the Brexit Party vote is united with the Tories about the prospect of a Corbyn led Govt. The Lib Dem vote, I suspect, is always looking for a reason to desert Labour.

Have you got any more reason for confidence in Labour’s prospect other than simple distrust?

 

[Proper Tidy]

On the fact that the Tories vote share in 2017 held up so well under a truly awful leader, that Labour hasn’t done well in the votes since the election and that the Tories may get a new leader bounce.

Like I say, the Brexit Party vote is united with the Tories about the prospect of a Corbyn led Govt. The Lib Dem vote, I suspect, is always looking for a reason to desert Labour.

Have you got any more reason for confidence in Labour’s prospect other than simple distrust?

Shit showing in the polls with credible predictions of a 100+ tory majority when May called a GE does suggest Labour vote may be more robust when it actually comes to it. The feet on the ground labour has far outweighs any other party too.

 

[killer b]

I'm not confident in anyone's prospects. But I don't think your calculations really add up either.

the Tories vote share in 2017 held up so well under a truly awful leader

Johnson won't be any better - after a good start his actual campaign for the leadership has been woeful - the Times mailout this morning draws some fairly obvious parallels with May's 2017 GE campaign, in fact...

Like I say, the Brexit Party vote is united with the Tories about the prospect of a Corbyn led Govt.

This is by no means certain now, and will be less so once Johnson comes up against the actual task once he's leader.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Also ofc the lib and brex vote is spread widely while labour and tories benefit from concentration. There shouldn't be any reasonable doubt that the biggest party after next GE will be one of labour or tories. If I wanted to put money on then at present labour as largest party still looks the most likely.

 

[redsquirrel]

On the fact that the Tories vote share in 2017 held up so well under a truly awful leader, that Labour hasn’t done well in the votes since the election and that the Tories may get a new leader bounce.

In every set of national elections since 2017 Labour's (projected) share of the vote has been greater than or equal to that of Tories.

 

[Mr Moose]

In every set of national elections since 2017 Labour's (projected) share of the vote has been greater than or equal to that of Tories.

Like Labour were a shoo-in in 2015?

 

[Mr Moose]

I'm not confident in anyone's prospects. But I don't think your calculations really add up either.
Johnson won't be any better - after a good start his actual campaign for the leadership has been woeful - the Times mailout this morning draws some fairly obvious parallels with May's 2017 GE campaign, in fact...
This is by no means certain now, and will be less so once Johnson comes up against the actual task once he's leader.

Being shyte at his job hasn’t really held Johnson back before. People don’t back him for his competency, they back him for what he signifies and his confidence. That may get him a long way in an election.

It may be helpful to Labour that he will make Corbyn look like the grown up in the room, but I’m not sure with Brexit and antisemitism that will be enough.

Johnson making an absolute balls-up of Brexit won’t necessarily help Labour. If it gets called a ‘national crisis’ people may be less likely to choose Corbyn’s Labour to pull us out of it.

I liked Corbyn’s card to Jeff Bezos though. A lot of the public would like a bit of populism from Labour.

Corbyn wishes Amazon 'many happy tax returns' on its 25th anniversary

 

[Mr Moose]

Also ofc the lib and brex vote is spread widely while labour and tories benefit from concentration. There shouldn't be any reasonable doubt that the biggest party after next GE will be one of labour or tories. If I wanted to put money on then at present labour as largest party still looks the most likely.

I certainly wouldn’t, but I hope you are right.

 

[redsquirrel]

Like Labour were a shoo-in in 2015?

Showing the fallacies in your argument doesn't mean I'm arguing that Labour will win a majority or even a plurality.

 

[Chz]

Shit showing in the polls with credible predictions of a 100+ tory majority when May called a GE does suggest Labour vote may be more robust when it actually comes to it. The feet on the ground labour has far outweighs any other party too.

Absolutely, but remember that YouGov - who are consistently putting Labour support below what the other pollsters are getting - were the closest to the result of that election. Though their last poll was completely out of whack to the result, all their polls leading up to the election showed a huge bounce for Labour and predicted a hung parliament, while most of the others were predicting a massive Con victory.

 

[killer b]

Absolutely, but remember that YouGov - who are consistently putting Labour support below what the other pollsters are getting - were the closest to the result of that election. Though their last poll was completely out of whack to the result, all their polls leading up to the election showed a huge bounce for Labour and predicted a hung parliament, while most of the others were predicting a massive Con victory.

Survation were the closest, so by that logic Labour are 2 ahead. Nice one.

 

[Mr Moose]

Showing the fallacies in your argument doesn't mean I'm arguing that Labour will win a majority or even a plurality.

It’s not demonstrating a fallacy. It’s evidence and not very strong evidence at that. It’s tempered greatly by Labour’s own diminishing returns.

I don’t hold with this ‘the Tories are shit, Labour should be miles ahead’. The Tories are the biggest electoral force in the UK. Beating them always hard.

What would give confidence that Labour can would be results that show an increase in Labour’s appeal in some direction and some sort of palpable buzz or confidence about itself. It doesn’t have either.

 

[brogdale]

Graphic of findings from Ashcroft's latest polling of 8223 adults between 24 & 28 June 2019.



Ordered by 'all' score (grey dot).

 

[Rimbaud]

Maybe it's true, but I've not seen anything more solid to back it up than it just being what various pricks who've called everything else wrong for the past 5 years think. I'm not accepting that as sound political analysis anymore.

There's a lot of pricks in the media who take Essex as their basis for understanding the British working class and seldom venture outside of London, and never out of the South East. Northerners are Brexity racists, Northern Ireland doesn't exist, and Wales and Scotland don't matter. What you have is a commentariat who are convinced that the 17 million or so in London and the South East are all that matters and the other 50 million who live outside London and the Home Counties are peripheral and irrelevant. This may be true economically, but it is one person one vote.

This is why they get it wrong again and again and again. There is a very strong tribal loyalty to Labour in the North that the commentariat doesn't really understand.

 

[kabbes]

Graphic of findings from Ashcroft's latest polling of 8223 adults between 24 & 28 June 2019.

View attachment 178285

Ordered by 'all' score (grey dot).

Corbyn beats Cameron lol

 

[Proper Tidy]

Corbyn beats Cameron lol

Change/TIG/whatever clustering shows most people just answered an ambivalent/dunno who they are 0. Equivelent to a 5 on a scale of how satisfied you are when companies make you do those fucking surveys after you phone to check your balance or something

 

[Raheem]

Graphic of findings from Ashcroft's latest polling of 8223 adults between 24 & 28 June 2019.

View attachment 178285

Ordered by 'all' score (grey dot).

So the most popular thing in the UK is the Green Party with an overall score of zero, roughly translated as 'not arsed either way'.

 

[kabbes]

So the most popular thing in the UK is the Green Party with an overall score of zero, roughly translated as 'not arsed either way'.

Yeah, and it’s the favourite amongst both Labour leavers AND Labour remainers!

 

[Chz]

Electoral Calculus
Interesting read here on divergence of polling and forecasting of potential GE outcomes, WRT to YouGov's oddities.
Apologies if it was posted before.

 

[Supine]

 

[Proper Tidy]

Made the mistake of clicking on that

 

[killer b]

That's a council by-election result?