Political polling

[butchersapron]

The fight is on for that brexit party vote.

 

[ferrelhadley]

In three months time the tories will be led by a Brexit chaos monkey. They will be chattering a wall of noise about identity, nationhood, threats, terrorism and most of all the betrayal of Brexit by parliament. They will whip up emotions and aim to chew up a big chunk of Nigel's voters. Life long Labour votes are up for grabs in those towns around the M62 and down the M6 and A1.
Labour sounds like a party for students hyped up about minorities, transgender issues and who think of everyone outside of the university towns as racist gammons and toxic masculinity.
It may be a lie but that is what many people hear. And the chaos monkey will target those people with soothing promises of taking them seriously.

FPTP puts Brexit in the majority in parliament. And if the wall of noise works, the tories will have a polling lead on a promise to retake parliament "for the people" and deliver their Brexit.

A lot can go wrong for them in the coming months. But they have a very clear strategy to out Farage Farage. To use Brexit as a classic wedge issue like abortion rights or gun control in the US, to break old voting patterns.

The electorate is polarising and those who embrace the polarisation are benefiting.
50% of Peterborough voters voted for Brexit means Brexit. That is pretty much a typical midlands marginal.

The chaos monkey cometh.

Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

 

[butchersapron]

Do we have that most rare of night visitors, a sober dr sausages?

 

[brogdale]

Crossover point according to Britain Elects tracker poll:

 

[Argonia]

Parliament looks decidedly hung in the current circumstances.

 

[weepiper]

Lots of interesting stuff to unpick here

EXCLUSIVE: Majority of Scots now in favour of independence, finds poll

 

[Proper Tidy]

Parliament looks decidedly hung in the current circumstances.

Chance would be a fine thing

 

[Poi E]

Lots of interesting stuff to unpick here

EXCLUSIVE: Majority of Scots now in favour of independence, finds poll

"Overall, a majority of Scots said that if a second independence referendum were to be held, they believed that Scotland would become independent and only three in ten of those polled – including two thirds of Conservative supporters and fewer than half of ‘no’ voters in 2014 – thought Scotland would vote to remain part of the UK."

Wow.

 

[treelover]

 

[MickiQ]

It was a dead cat one

 

[Supine]

The Boris bounce

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/?

None of these polls look anything like the momentum quoted poll. Obviously it's easy to cherrypick a poll that reflects our own biases

 

[brogdale]

More on that 'bounce'.



Way negative.
The cunt.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, that's an approval rating of minus 21%, compared with Corbyn on minus 40-50%.

What a fucking mess.

 

[Proper Tidy]

More on that 'bounce'.

View attachment 180043

Way negative.
The cunt.

Yet still seeing and reading stuff every day including on here which seems to see Johnson as a crafty heavyweight who can drive through no deal and take another five years. Mad. He's a gift imo. And fucked.

 

[Supine]

Yet still seeing and reading stuff every day including on here which seems to see Johnson as a crafty heavyweight who can drive through no deal and take another five years. Mad. He's a gift imo. And fucked.

He doesn't have to be popular. He just has to be more popular than the opposition.

 

[brogdale]

...and the geography of Johnson's polling:

 

[Proper Tidy]

He doesn't have to be popular. He just has to be more popular than the opposition.

Well he has to be more popular than the opposition with the voters that could go (back) to labour

 

[danny la rouge]

...and the geography of Johnson's polling:

View attachment 180050

That’s ironic. They’re the ones who launched his career by electing him mayor...

 

[Teaboy]

Yes, we speak of what we know.

 

[bluescreen]

That’s ironic. They’re the ones who launched his career by electing him mayor...

Maybe that's why.

 

[danny la rouge]

Any reason for the tortured syntax? “Where is he least unpopular?”

ETA. Doh. Just worked it out. Ignore.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, that's an approval rating of minus 21%, compared with Corbyn on minus 40-50%.

What a fucking mess.

This seems the last survey before May 'stepped down'.



Farage came out best.

 

[danny la rouge]

Just posted the chart on my family group chat.

Middle brother: “21% of Scots have a favourable view of him - who are they?”
Youngest brother: “Huns”.


:neutral face:

 

[treelover]

View attachment 180060

That’s ironic. They’re the ones who launched his career by electing him mayor...

Charles Moore said it is those who know him best who know how unsuitable he really is, or words to that effect.

 

[brogdale]

More on that 'bounce'

 

[treelover]

So, good for the Yellow enablers?

 

[killer b]

The tories are up 5-6% on yougov since johnson was made leader tbf. That it hasn't continued climbing isn't evidence theres no bounce - its bounced and its sustained. The lib dems are up and down by a point or two each time, it's just noise rather than being a real increase.

 

[brogdale]

The tories are up 5-6% on yougov since johnson was made leader tbf. That it hasn't continued climbing isn't evidence theres no bounce - its bounced and its sustained. The lib dems are up and down by a point or two each time, it's just noise rather than being a real increase.

Yep, that's a fair call.
I suppose what might be a little troubling for the vermin is the relatively modest uptick and Johnson's consistently (so far) negative, personal polling.
The 'bounce', such as it is, appears to have put the vermin back to where there were in (Westminster) polling back in April under May. Interestingly that's when UKIP & Brexit were then polling about 14 % together, supporting the notion of unsurprising churn from the 'insurgents' back to the vermin.

Of course the weak Lab polling makes Johnson's modest 'bounce' more potent. In April the other opposition parties were collectively polling about 20% whereas today they're nudging towards 30%...at Labour's expense.

 

[treelover]

Labour will have a very good manifesto, with stuff which will appeal to 'moderates, John Mc's regional banks, etc, whether they will vote for Labour is another thing.

 

[Argonia]

Chuk aren't going to get 5.5% after their splitting antics