Supine
Newt Member
P45 more likely
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
P45 more likely
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
No, they won't. That's why I was sort of lumping all the non-Lab oppo together.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Majority of Britons support 'Brexit by any means'
"A ComRes opinion poll showed 54% of respondents said they agreed with the statement: “Boris (Johnson) needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs (Members of Parliament) from stopping it.”"
"A ComRes opinion poll showed 54% of respondents said they agreed with the statement: “Boris (Johnson) needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs (Members of Parliament) from stopping it.”"
You know how we all sneer whenever the people's vote campaign release some bollocks press release based on a partial reading of a leading poll question?
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
I'm not following you, sorry
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Are ComRes not legit?
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Fucking depressing
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
40% is electorally relevant.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Do you mean hit 40 and go for a GE?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not necessarily with 33% going to 3 & 4?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
That kind of polling certainly emboldens Johnson for whatever he's going to do next - and let's be honest, those are dreadful figures for Labour (regardless of caveats from 2017). Not actually sure what he will do next re Brexit, but we can be pretty certain there's a GE in the next few months.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I mean, to both above, is that LD and BP % mean nothing aside from a few seats.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
And a lot of the Brex vote-intention will go Tory in a GE, just like UKIP votes did.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
That's what you made it, yep. The barrage might have worked.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
I'm not sure I'm entirely responsible, but you be your usual enigmatic and elliptical self, butchers
Honestly, it's like receiving an unexpected - and strangely unsettling - report from an Augur, sometimes.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
OK, my point is that anti-eu feeling with no left rep is dead. If we're not there, they are.I'm not sure I'm entirely responsible, but you be your usual enigmatic and elliptical self, butchers
Honestly, it's like receiving an unexpected - and strangely unsettling - report from an Augur, sometimes.
The barrage is the liberal wall against fascism. The one that keeps producing it.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It's obvious
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
In 2015 most the the UKIP vote polled stayed with UKIP in the GE (or else was cancelled out by a movement to UKIP from other sources).
From the start of the official campaign to polling day the average UKIP polled was 12.5%, slightly below the 12.9% they got the GE.
From the start of 2015 to polling day the average UKIP polled was 14.1%.
There was a move away from UKIP but it was not that large.
For the 2017 GE UKIP did poll higher than the final vote but there vote there was much lower than what they achieved in the 2015 GE and what the BP are currently polling.
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Proper Tidy
Arsed
On a basic no deal v deal split it's about evens though. Fun times ahead
Supine
Newt Member
Yep - although dangerous to make the assumption that the same people would vote remain/leave in a ref as they would for the party of their choice in a GE.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Yeah, was thinking more for a GE though, if called next week to fall just before the end of October leave date then people likely to vote for a party that reflects their leave/remain position. Tories probably come out largest with Labour second but balance of other parties bit more curious, LibDems won't get many seats for their 20%ish polling but BxP will be lucky to get any on their 12%.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Worth noting that this is YG who have appeared to over-egg recent tory leads by inflating the LD numbers at the expense of the LP.
Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
The thought of the Tories as the largest party is a horror show, with a majority a nightmare.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Yeah if they can form a govt. But they could end up largest party without any road to a majority
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Oh dear, the cry babies saying that nasty old YouGov is helping the Tories\Lib Dems at the expense of Labour.
Data offered, as expected, zero.
Meanwhile from the 5 latest polls by major polling companies (KantorTNS is a way there)
via @Survation, 29 - 30 Aug
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB; 24% (-)
LDEM: 21% (-)
BREX: 14% (-1)
(90%)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Aug
CON: 33% (-1)
LAB; 22% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+4)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
(95%)
via @OpiniumResearch, 21 - 23 Aug
CON: 32% (+1)
LAB: 26% (-2)
BREX: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(93%)
via @KantarTNS, 15 - 19 Aug
CON: 42% (+17)
LAB: 28% (-6)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-)
TIG/CHUK: 1% (-)
UKIP: 0% (-4)
(94%)
via @BMGResearch (pre 18 August)
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDEM: 19% (+1)
BREX: 12% (-2)
(87%)
These are the most recent polls by 5 polling companies.
Most show the Tories around 31% other than KantarTNS.
BMG shows a 6% lead but a 19% Lib Dem vote.
Opium shows a 6% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote
YouGov shows a 11% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
Survation shows a 7% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
KantarTNS shows a 14% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote.
The difference is YouGov shows more for the Greens and less for Brexit Party. Survation has the Lib Dems on the same numbers as YouGov but a smaller lead as less goes to the Greens
BMG has nearly the same number for the Lib Dems but a smaller lead again due to small parties not picking up as much.
Opiums low Lib Dem score is more of the outlier but the only one that supports the current meme.
Obviously though pollin on Urban is only used to validate personal opinions. So the actual numbers are only to be cherry picked.
Given a deeply fractured electorate generally not having much in either main party then its down to how the polling companies pick up the sentiment for other parties and how they model for that sentiment to come back to the big two on election day.
Obviously though that is nowhere near as much fun as accusing them of "over egging" because you do not like the poll (or the British people)
While we are here, survations leadership numbers.
Data offered, as expected, zero.
Meanwhile from the 5 latest polls by major polling companies (KantorTNS is a way there)
via @Survation, 29 - 30 Aug
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB; 24% (-)
LDEM: 21% (-)
BREX: 14% (-1)
(90%)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Aug
CON: 33% (-1)
LAB; 22% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+4)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
(95%)
via @OpiniumResearch, 21 - 23 Aug
CON: 32% (+1)
LAB: 26% (-2)
BREX: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(93%)
via @KantarTNS, 15 - 19 Aug
CON: 42% (+17)
LAB: 28% (-6)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-)
TIG/CHUK: 1% (-)
UKIP: 0% (-4)
(94%)
via @BMGResearch (pre 18 August)
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDEM: 19% (+1)
BREX: 12% (-2)
(87%)
These are the most recent polls by 5 polling companies.
Most show the Tories around 31% other than KantarTNS.
BMG shows a 6% lead but a 19% Lib Dem vote.
Opium shows a 6% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote
YouGov shows a 11% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
Survation shows a 7% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
KantarTNS shows a 14% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote.
The difference is YouGov shows more for the Greens and less for Brexit Party. Survation has the Lib Dems on the same numbers as YouGov but a smaller lead as less goes to the Greens
BMG has nearly the same number for the Lib Dems but a smaller lead again due to small parties not picking up as much.
Opiums low Lib Dem score is more of the outlier but the only one that supports the current meme.
Obviously though pollin on Urban is only used to validate personal opinions. So the actual numbers are only to be cherry picked.
Given a deeply fractured electorate generally not having much in either main party then its down to how the polling companies pick up the sentiment for other parties and how they model for that sentiment to come back to the big two on election day.
Obviously though that is nowhere near as much fun as accusing them of "over egging" because you do not like the poll (or the British people)
While we are here, survations leadership numbers.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Oh dear, the cry babies saying that nasty old YouGov is helping the Tories\Lib Dems at the expense of Labour.
Data offered, as expected, zero.
Meanwhile from the 5 latest polls by major polling companies (KantorTNS is a way there)
via @Survation, 29 - 30 Aug
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB; 24% (-)
LDEM: 21% (-)
BREX: 14% (-1)
(90%)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Aug
CON: 33% (-1)
LAB; 22% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+4)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
(95%)
via @OpiniumResearch, 21 - 23 Aug
CON: 32% (+1)
LAB: 26% (-2)
BREX: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(93%)
via @KantarTNS, 15 - 19 Aug
CON: 42% (+17)
LAB: 28% (-6)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-)
TIG/CHUK: 1% (-)
UKIP: 0% (-4)
(94%)
via @BMGResearch (pre 18 August)
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDEM: 19% (+1)
BREX: 12% (-2)
(87%)
These are the most recent polls by 5 polling companies.
Most show the Tories around 31% other than KantarTNS.
BMG shows a 6% lead but a 19% Lib Dem vote.
Opium shows a 6% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote
YouGov shows a 11% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
Survation shows a 7% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
KantarTNS shows a 14% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote.
The difference is YouGov shows more for the Greens and less for Brexit Party. Survation has the Lib Dems on the same numbers as YouGov but a smaller lead as less goes to the Greens
BMG has nearly the same number for the Lib Dems but a smaller lead again due to small parties not picking up as much.
Opiums low Lib Dem score is more of the outlier but the only one that supports the current meme.
Obviously though pollin on Urban is only used to validate personal opinions. So the actual numbers are only to be cherry picked.
Given a deeply fractured electorate generally not having much in either main party then its down to how the polling companies pick up the sentiment for other parties and how they model for that sentiment to come back to the big two on election day.
Obviously though that is nowhere near as much fun as accusing them of "over egging" because you do not like the poll (or the British people)
While we are here, survations leadership numbers.
Yes, quite.
YG has the lowest LP & joint highest LD.
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