Political polling

[cupid_stunt]

Oh dear, the cry babies saying that nasty old YouGov is helping the Tories\Lib Dems at the expense of Labour.
Data offered, as expected, zero.

Meanwhile from the 5 latest polls by major polling companies (KantorTNS is a way there)

via @Survation, 29 - 30 Aug
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB; 24% (-)
LDEM: 21% (-)
BREX: 14% (-1)
(90%)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Aug
CON: 33% (-1)
LAB; 22% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+4)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
(95%)
via @OpiniumResearch, 21 - 23 Aug
CON: 32% (+1)
LAB: 26% (-2)
BREX: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(93%)
via @KantarTNS, 15 - 19 Aug
CON: 42% (+17)
LAB: 28% (-6)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-)
TIG/CHUK: 1% (-)
UKIP: 0% (-4)
(94%)
via @BMGResearch (pre 18 August)
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDEM: 19% (+1)
BREX: 12% (-2)
(87%)
These are the most recent polls by 5 polling companies.
Most show the Tories around 31% other than KantarTNS.
BMG shows a 6% lead but a 19% Lib Dem vote.
Opium shows a 6% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote
YouGov shows a 11% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
Survation shows a 7% lead with 21% Lib Dem vote
KantarTNS shows a 14% lead with 15% Lib Dem vote.
The difference is YouGov shows more for the Greens and less for Brexit Party. Survation has the Lib Dems on the same numbers as YouGov but a smaller lead as less goes to the Greens
BMG has nearly the same number for the Lib Dems but a smaller lead again due to small parties not picking up as much.
Opiums low Lib Dem score is more of the outlier but the only one that supports the current meme.
Obviously though pollin on Urban is only used to validate personal opinions. So the actual numbers are only to be cherry picked.

Given a deeply fractured electorate generally not having much in either main party then its down to how the polling companies pick up the sentiment for other parties and how they model for that sentiment to come back to the big two on election day.

Obviously though that is nowhere near as much fun as accusing them of "over egging" because you do not like the poll (or the British people)

While we are here, survations leadership numbers.

Lot easier to see with a screen-shot...


Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

 

[cupid_stunt]

BTW, I am loving how well things are going for UKIP & the Change names weekly lot.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Anything showing what seats the average of current polling would translate to?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Anything showing what seats the average of current polling would translate to?

You need to put the figures in - User-defined Poll



Not sure if this link will work, if it does, it gives predicted seat changes:
Election Prediction

It's a bit scary, TBH.

 

[Proper Tidy]

You need to put the figures in - User-defined Poll

View attachment 182745

Not sure if this link will work, if it does, it gives predicted seat changes:
Election Prediction

It's a bit scary, TBH.

See I think in current context a lash up of lab/lib/snp/plaid is politically possible (not attractive but there we go) but narrow as fuck isn't it

Edit fucking hell wasn't even looking at right seats, fucks sake

 

[cupid_stunt]

See I think in current context a lash up of lab/lib/snp/plaid is politically possible (not attractive but there we go) but narrow as fuck isn't it

Trouble is, come the day, I can see a majority of BP intended voters switching to the Tories. Not sure if a majority of LD intended voters will switch to Lab, what with Corbyn being so unpopular.

I nicked this from the Daily Mail's site, but it was a Survation poll, and they called it nearest in the 2017 election...


...again, a bit scary.

 

[Smangus]

Give it a couple of weeks more to sink in, but not looking good for any kind of Lexit shambles.

 

[Rivendelboy]

FFS don't call a GE. I can't go through the heartache of seeing another Tory win.

 

[cupid_stunt]

FFS don't call a GE. I can't go through the heartache of seeing another Tory win.

 

[Rivendelboy]

It's not the frequency of elections that bothers me, it's the inevitable outcome. We cannot go through another five years of tory shit. People cannot literally survive anymore. Fucking burn this shithole country

 

[tommers]

It's not the frequency of elections that bothers me, it's the inevitable outcome. We cannot go through another five years of tory shit. People cannot literally survive anymore. Fucking burn this shithole country

And yet they keep voting for them.

Did you hear Corbyn used to work for the Czech secret service?

 

[Rivendelboy]

And yet they keep voting for them.

Did you hear Corbyn used to work for the Czech secret service?

Of course, he's a dirty muslim commuterrorist

 

[kebabking]

...again, a bit scary.

Actually - so far - I think we've pretty much got away with it.

We've had, apart from the murder of Jo Cox MP during the ref campaign, no violence, and certainly no large scale violence. We've had a downturn in the nature of our political debate, and we've had an unwelcome polarisation, but if you imagine what might have happened if, 3 years after a 'yes' vote on Scottish independence, the Scottish parliament was pretty obviously trying to kick independence off into the long grass, or in Ireland 3 years after a 'yes' vote for unification very little was happening, then we've pretty much got away with it.

We've (and by that I mean the electorate, even though I voted to remain) decided to make a large change in the way our country works, one that is very tightly wound up with questions about viscerial identity, and yet our political 'elite' (I fucking hate that word, it's ridiculously simplistic, but it will do for the moment), are still squabbling over the original question, not (as promised) listening to the answer they asked us to give them and cracking on with implementation. Compared with how it could have gone - Bosnia - a bit of jiggery-pokery that implements legislation that parliament has already passed isn't the worst outcome in the world.

 

[ska invita]

True, its not Bosnia

FFS don't call a GE. I can't go through the heartache of seeing another Tory win.

If it stays like this then maybe crashing out on a No Deal with enough carnage ensuing and then a GE might be the only way to avoid Emperor Johnsons reign

 

[brogdale]

Lapping.It.Up.

 

[Rivendelboy]

Inserting a loop of Bambi being shot in front of a children's choir on christmas day would only serve to make this thread less depressing. Corbyn has his faults for sure, but the Tories? How can Britain function like this?

 

[DownwardDog]

Inserting a loop of Bambi being shot in front of a children's choir on christmas day would only serve to make this thread less depressing. Corbyn has his faults for sure, but the Tories? How can Britain function like this?

Labour decided Corbo had to be allowed to lose 2 elections before getting booted out so here we are.

 

[ska invita]

Inserting a loop of Bambi being shot in front of a children's choir on christmas day would only serve to make this thread less depressing. Corbyn has his faults for sure, but the Tories? How can Britain function like this?

Labour are fucked in terms of having a position on Brexit at this point in time ahead of an imminent election....they cant triangulate anymore. One option would be an all out kamikaze remain position to get back lib dem votes - an inverse of what the Toryies have just done with Brexit Party voters - which would both fail and damage them hard in the future.
Feel totally doomed.
Bracing for five years of not just a tory government, but a hyper thatcherite one, way beyond the last two.

Labour decided Corbo had to be allowed to lose 2 elections before getting booted out so here we are.

I thought Corbyn should have stood down at one point this year, purely as he'd taken too many arrows - but the fact is Labour are outmanoeuvred as a party on Brexit, and no new Labour leader could find a position on Brexit that would fly in the face of the current Tory narrative <IMO

 

[Chz]

a hyper thatcherite one

They're quite to the right of Thatcher.

 

[ska invita]

They're quite to the right of Thatcher.

That's what I was getting at

 

[chilango]

You need to put the figures in - User-defined Poll

View attachment 182745

Not sure if this link will work, if it does, it gives predicted seat changes:
Election Prediction

It's a bit scary, TBH.

Looking at seats I'm familiar with on that list.

Most, but not all, seem plausible.

But....they have Leave leaning seats and Remain leaning seats being gained by the Tories. Which is interesting.

 

[Rivendelboy]

Labour are fucked in terms of having a position on Brexit at this point in time ahead of an imminent election....they cant triangulate anymore. One option would be an all out kamikaze remain position to get back lib dem votes - an inverse of what the Toryies have just done with Brexit Party voters - which would both fail and damage them hard in the future.
Feel totally doomed.
Bracing for five years of not just a tory government, but a hyper thatcherite one, way beyond the last two.


I thought Corbyn should have stood down at one point this year, purely as he'd taken too many arrows - but the fact is Labour are outmanoeuvred as a party on Brexit, and no new Labour leader could find a position on Brexit that would fly in the face of the current Tory narrative <IMO

I think remain is their best bet. At least the brexit vote will divide the tories and the brexit party.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yeah best bet is defo to give up on voters in south wales valleys and yorkshire and east mids towns, where else will they go

 

[Rivendelboy]

Yeah best bet is defo to give up on voters in south wales valleys and yorkshire and east mids towns, where else will they go

There are no good choices, if they support brexit they lose the remainers to the libdems while the hardcore brexiteers won't vote labour anyway

 

[butchersapron]

I think that last bit is where and why you may be going wrong.

 

[killer b]

Interesting MRP poll on the FT liveblog this afternoon:

According to a new poll of 10,000 adults, a snap general election would produce...another hung parliament, our Whitehall correspondent Sebastian Payne writes. According to the survey, commissioned by the Conservative Group for Europe - a pro-European group led by former attorney general Dominic Grieve and ex-chancellor Ken Clarke - an election would reject the Tories but it would not emphatically endorse any other party. According to FocalData, who used the MRP method to produce the survey, an election would produce the following outcome (changes from the 2017 election in brackets):

Conservative: 311 (-6 seats)
Labour: 242 (-20 seats)
Liberal Democrats: 21 (+9 seats)
SNP: 52 (+17 seats)
Plaid: 4 (no change)
Green: 1 (no change)
Others: 1

There’s a few things to note. First it covers just Great Britain, with no results for Northern Ireland. So if the Democratic Unionist party held onto their ten seats, they could once again prop up the Tories and keep Boris Johnson as prime minister. Second, although Labour would lose seats (presumably over its Brexit stance) the gains for for the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats could offer the party a chance to form a rainbow coalition of all progressive parties.

 

[killer b]

fieldwork for the poll was carried out by Panelbase, who are polling Labour quite high in their standard polls, so read it with that in mind.

 

[Rivendelboy]

Interesting MRP poll on the FT liveblog this afternoon:

According to a new poll of 10,000 adults, a snap general election would produce...another hung parliament, our Whitehall correspondent Sebastian Payne writes. According to the survey, commissioned by the Conservative Group for Europe - a pro-European group led by former attorney general Dominic Grieve and ex-chancellor Ken Clarke - an election would reject the Tories but it would not emphatically endorse any other party. According to FocalData, who used the MRP method to produce the survey, an election would produce the following outcome (changes from the 2017 election in brackets):

Conservative: 311 (-6 seats)
Labour: 242 (-20 seats)
Liberal Democrats: 21 (+9 seats)
SNP: 52 (+17 seats)
Plaid: 4 (no change)
Green: 1 (no change)
Others: 1

There’s a few things to note. First it covers just Great Britain, with no results for Northern Ireland. So if the Democratic Unionist party held onto their ten seats, they could once again prop up the Tories and keep Boris Johnson as prime minister. Second, although Labour would lose seats (presumably over its Brexit stance) the gains for for the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats could offer the party a chance to form a rainbow coalition of all progressive parties.

You mean 311 seats + 21 from the yellow tories who absolutely will jump into bed with the cunts again.

 

[chilango]

Interesting MRP poll on the FT liveblog this afternoon:

According to a new poll of 10,000 adults, a snap general election would produce...another hung parliament, our Whitehall correspondent Sebastian Payne writes. According to the survey, commissioned by the Conservative Group for Europe - a pro-European group led by former attorney general Dominic Grieve and ex-chancellor Ken Clarke - an election would reject the Tories but it would not emphatically endorse any other party. According to FocalData, who used the MRP method to produce the survey, an election would produce the following outcome (changes from the 2017 election in brackets):

Conservative: 311 (-6 seats)
Labour: 242 (-20 seats)
Liberal Democrats: 21 (+9 seats)
SNP: 52 (+17 seats)
Plaid: 4 (no change)
Green: 1 (no change)
Others: 1

There’s a few things to note. First it covers just Great Britain, with no results for Northern Ireland. So if the Democratic Unionist party held onto their ten seats, they could once again prop up the Tories and keep Boris Johnson as prime minister. Second, although Labour would lose seats (presumably over its Brexit stance) the gains for for the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats could offer the party a chance to form a rainbow coalition of all progressive parties.

Who's the "others" with one seat?

 

[brogdale]

Interesting MRP poll on the FT liveblog this afternoon:

According to a new poll of 10,000 adults, a snap general election would produce...another hung parliament, our Whitehall correspondent Sebastian Payne writes. According to the survey, commissioned by the Conservative Group for Europe - a pro-European group led by former attorney general Dominic Grieve and ex-chancellor Ken Clarke - an election would reject the Tories but it would not emphatically endorse any other party. According to FocalData, who used the MRP method to produce the survey, an election would produce the following outcome (changes from the 2017 election in brackets):

Conservative: 311 (-6 seats)
Labour: 242 (-20 seats)
Liberal Democrats: 21 (+9 seats)
SNP: 52 (+17 seats)
Plaid: 4 (no change)
Green: 1 (no change)
Others: 1

There’s a few things to note. First it covers just Great Britain, with no results for Northern Ireland. So if the Democratic Unionist party held onto their ten seats, they could once again prop up the Tories and keep Boris Johnson as prime minister. Second, although Labour would lose seats (presumably over its Brexit stance) the gains for for the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats could offer the party a chance to form a rainbow coalition of all progressive parties.

apart from a near clean sweep for Sturgeon, that appears remarkably as you were.