brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Indeed.
One of 3 that demonstrated the less predictable nature of 3/4 way contests.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
One of 3 that demonstrated the less predictable nature of 3/4 way contests.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
A mighty 200 votes. The only interesting thing about that is brexit party taking labour vote to let this scummer in. First seats stood in.
Is this you outing yourself then Supine?
Is this you outing yourself then Supine?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Tories flocking to lib dems
Boost for Jo Swinson as Tories swell Liberal Democrat ranks, poll suggests
Boost for Jo Swinson as Tories swell Liberal Democrat ranks, poll suggests
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Johnson is going to take votes from the Brexit Party .
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Boris taking votes off the Brexit Party short term is pretty much a given, For the next few weeks at least we are going to be subject to a nauseous stream of 'At last we have a man (wanna bet sexism will enter into this?) who can deliver Brexit' and 'Boris Fuck Yeah', right up until he hits the same walls that Mayhem did.
He is going to enjoy something of a honeymoon right up to the point where he has to put Brexit off yet again and then we will see his popularity plummet.
He is going to enjoy something of a honeymoon right up to the point where he has to put Brexit off yet again and then we will see his popularity plummet.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Best to be cautious for all kinds of reasons at the moment. The interaction of relatively low polling figures and the fptp system, the polls undercounted Labour/Corbyn voters last time etc. We also don't know whether the next election will be before a likely Brexit, after a failed Brexit or after an actual Brexit. We're almost at the point where we don't know anything. Same time, it's a struggle to see a Labour majority emerging from most of these scenarios. Labour's best chance may well be Gauke and the rest stopping the October deadline, blood letting, Brexit Party take significant votes from the Tories. But even then Labour may well need a de facto pact with the Liberals to maximise the number of non-Tory MPs (which they almost certainly won't even ask for, never mind get). Labour's real fear might be that Farage's lot stand aside where the Tory sitting MP is frothing.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
By frothing do you mean barking?
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
There is no conceivable route to a working Labour majority while they are polling 14% in Scotland.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Agreed but Lab-SNP, Lab-LD or even Lab-SNP-LD coalitions are plausible combinations whereas the Tories only allies now are the crazies shouting in the corner
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Don’t believe for a second that the Lib Dems wouldn’t bend over for the tories again. A sniff of power will be like rohypnol, plenty of common ground outside of the Brexit issue. A ‘moderating force’, they’d sell you out again for a ban on plastic straws or something.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Politicians sniff power like rats after garbage but I don't think a Tory-LD coalition is likely in the near future not whilst they are led by Bono the Clown, the man is as divisive inside Westminster as he is outside and Brexit is just too great a divide.
In the long term maybe but I don't think it is likely on any timescale a GE will be fought on
In the long term maybe but I don't think it is likely on any timescale a GE will be fought on
Proper Tidy
Arsed
I don't think a Lab/Lib coalition is a possibility either though tbf. Maybe confidence & supply I suppose.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
except anyone slightly left of themselves
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butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Bolton right now with tories and UKIP.
edit: Happened in Derby as well apparently.
Of course, been in coalition with tories all over the place.
krink
I'll do it this afternoon
It's probably just down to the fact that I cashed out my £50 /QUOTE]
OK, stop showing off. I lost the will to live trying to get the 50 quid
Plumdaff
joy in people
Pretty horrendous reading for Labour all round, and bears out the creeping belief that without some dramatic shifts into radicalism that seem so far beyond them Welsh Labour hegemony is over (with usual provisos that this is only one poll). The Assembly poll is the first one ever showing Plaid in the lead, and would mean, in an election, that Drakeford would lose his seat.
Are there any lab/lib councils? It seems to be a vanishingly rare lash up
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Smug as fuck Swinson is ahead of you:
Jo Swinson rules out Lib Dem pact with Labour under Jeremy Corbyn
be hard for the Tories to attack Labour for going into coalition with the SNP, after their one with the DUP, though they will try.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Well yeah. Obviously the libdems are completely shameless but fuck all chance they will jump in with labour formally while Corbyn/labour left in control
The vast majority of Lib Dem target marginals are tory held seats (something like 40-odd out of 50), so their current strategy is aimed at picking up liberal tory voters who would never consider voting Corbyn's labour. Whether it would hold up to the other side of a general election remains to be seen though.
Actually its 30-odd out of the top 50. Either way, their strategy has to be primarily tory facing. Also worth looking at these numbers if you're imagining the lib dems as in a position to overtake Labour next election - they quickly get to the point where they need to overturn majorities of tens of thousands if they want to pick up any more than a handful of seats.
Liberal Democrat Target Seats 2022 - Election Polling
Liberal Democrat Target Seats 2022 - Election Polling
Argonia
Happy go licky
The Tories are led by Bono now? Has he ditched U2?
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Blame that on a Samsung phone and my fat fingers
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