Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Which is clearly your strongly held view...perhaps best to leave threads about polling to those who do see some value in attempting to gauge public political sentiment?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Polls aren't predictions. Betting odds aren't predictions either. They are both accurate measures of what they're measuring.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Hey, yougov have never asked me!
et bleedin cetera
et bleedin cetera
Although the published result is an adaptation of the original raw data, in an attempt to allow for some difference between what is being measured and what the pollsters are actually trying to measure.
ska invita
back on the other side
BlairSeason's greetings my fellow psephology geeks; fill yer boots!
Courtesy the HoC Library : here
First graph is a good'un...
View attachment 155668
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Indeed, and the various weighting methodologies can account for significant differences in polling outcome:
When the polling companies were (with the exception of Survation) using turn out models they were diluting their polling with an attempt at predicting turn out. So you had a mish mash of polling and predictions based on past data. And it was shameful. Even more shameful that they only stopped when it didn't bare predictive fruits.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
ska invita
back on the other side
No Tinge on there?
I don't think last week's display looks that good for the Tories. This week should be funner.
I don't think last week's display looks that good for the Tories. This week should be funner.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I think TInGe are appearing under 'others' at present.
ska invita
back on the other side
Previous entry on polling report
11th March....
Most polling companies are not, at present, including the Independent Group in polls – something that will presumably change as they take steps towards actually forming a party and clarifying their future intentions.
Weird - should at least be other, as you say. The one poll with them on from 5th March doesnt have them in Other
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Brexit-Express-Poll-March-2019_updated3.pdf
and has them on 8%
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
They don't come anywhere near requiring a separate listing at present.
ska invita
back on the other side
8% is equal to lib dems and more than ukip in that 5th March poll in the PDF?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes, but that polling number came just after they were all over the media; they were the news. The other 2 parties are political parties recognised by the Electoral Commission and both with (varying degrees of) national infrastructure. As yet, TInGe have none of this and I don't really think that 8% of the electorate will get the chance to vote for them, let alone actually do so.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Chickens coming home to roost.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Quite something really that fully 15% of those who reckon that they'll bother voting will do so for the party responsible for the (unwanted?) vote.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
YouGov EU Poll:
UKIP/Brexit 34% v Labour 22%
Working Class C2DE
•Labour 20%
•UKIP/Brexit 42%
MIdlands/Wales
•Labour 19%
•UKIP/Brexit 45%
North England
•Labour 33%
•UKIP/Brexit 32%
Scotland
•Labour 16%
•UKIP/Brexit 17%
London
•Labour 25%
•UKIP/Brexit 23%
UKIP/Brexit 34% v Labour 22%
Working Class C2DE
•Labour 20%
•UKIP/Brexit 42%
MIdlands/Wales
•Labour 19%
•UKIP/Brexit 45%
North England
•Labour 33%
•UKIP/Brexit 32%
Scotland
•Labour 16%
•UKIP/Brexit 17%
London
•Labour 25%
•UKIP/Brexit 23%
Benjamin F
Lost my faith in Nihilism
F*ck those really are scary figures, especially the hold of Brit' nationalism within the English working classes. The Scottish figure is slightly misleading, for in most regards the SNP has taken the place of the Labour Party and the SNP is polling, I guess, at about 40+%. Nonetheless the UKIP/Brexit here beats the far-right vote in 2014 (just under 13% with UKIP, BNP and Britain First)
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Chuka Umunna on on six percent?
Centrist remoan for the loss!
Balbi
Hey, Dean Yager!
It's not that scary tbh. The UK has always treated EU elections differently to General Elections - sending the BNP and Farage off to Brussels as a sort of weird fuck you to it all, while all the main parties sort of ignores their reps in the EU Parliament because it was handy to blame shit on the EU even though they had party members there.
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