Political polling

[killer b]

I don't think there's anything in that poll that we don't already know (although I'd be cautious of assuming those are solid number for the brexit party, which has had a lot of press this week - yougov have done a second poll a day later with a drop of 4 points). If you add up the remainish poll results vs the leavish results it's about 50/50.

I think it does tell you how unwilling to compromise each set of voters are though, and it's not looking great for the hard remain lot.

 

[Wilf]

I don't think there's anything in that poll that we don't already know (although I'd be cautious of assuming those are solid number for the brexit party, which has had a lot of press this week - yougov have done a second poll a day later with a drop of 4 points). If you add up the remainish poll results vs the leavish results it's about 50/50.

I think it does tell you how unwilling to compromise each set of voters are though, and it's not looking great for the hard remain lot.

All the above - and I've not seen much in any of these polls that suggest Labour would do better if it came out for a 2nd ref in the Euro polls. Of course they play out regionally with PR and party lists, so there will be some fine margins as to whether any party gets say 3 out of the 7 seats or 2. Also, a more remain minded Labour might do better in London for example.

Almost certainly this will be a shouty election. Farage's lot will manage that and probably do well. Labour's best response would be an equally shouty response that pushed public services, living wage, scrapping universal credit and the rest, regardless of brexit. Dare I say it, a lexit.

 

[killer b]

Need to see some more EU polling tbh, check this one out.

 

[Dogsauce]

Think the YouGov one excluded don’t knows, which there were apparently quite a lot of, so that might make things a bit variable between polls. More people likely to make their mind up nearer the time I guess so it might converge a bit more.

 

[brogdale]

Need to see some more EU polling tbh, check this one out.

The ComRes Westminster one is interesting; feels like the Great brexit betrayal narrative is cutting through and driving some real polling change. Corbyn's game plan looking (politically) very sound at this stage.

 

[butchersapron]

Solid labour - shows the madness of the beckett/people's vote stuff. Stick with who has stuck by you if you want to survive.

 

[killer b]

If they had a competent leader with a pro-EU message they'd be ten points ahea- oh.

 

[killer b]

Anyway, I know were only a few days and a couple of polls into the EP campaign, but it looks to me like TIG are toast. Theres already a narrative baked in - only Labour can save us from the farragist hordes - and I can't see what's going to shift that.

I thought Labour would want to avoid EP elections happening, as it could result in some easy wins and a political base to work from for TIG: whereas its actually going to be the exact opposite, the first opportunity for Labour to crush them at the ballot box, and reassert themselves as the only electoral alternative to the Tories.

Made me laugh to see uber-remain nutcase Andrew Adonis is standing for election as an MEP for Labour: I fucking hate him but that's a really smart move IMO.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm labour - i want the chaos. They literally can come out the unsullied ones.

Adonis never going to get away with it. The shit they've been electing here there and everywhere. cantsin - what you doing?

 

[killer b]

I dont imagine he'll win - second on the list in the south west and theres a lot of ground for labour to make up before he could be in with a chance - but his candidature helps with the kneecapping of TIG. Deep in FBPE territory calling for a labour vote, and a lot of people who might consider TIG or the lib dems might well look at the polling and agree with him.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh no, this is hard leave area.

 

[butchersapron]

Labour will get their normal, tories will as pigs will

 

[butchersapron]

There is no lesson beyond the one that the labour party endures and can't be controlled.

 

[killer b]

Oh no, this is hard leave area.

Sorry, I meant FBPE territory metaphorically/ nationally: I know he's unlikely to win. I think he's a really smart choice as far as holding the labour remain/leave coalition together is concerned.

 

[killer b]

Actually I take it all back.

 

[butchersapron]

You may have missed his piece arguing that history will judge leave voters as 'traitors' as well.

 

[Sue]

Is it not a bit....unusual...telling voters not to vote for your party..?

 

[killer b]

You may have missed his piece arguing that history will judge leave voters as 'traitors' as well.

I had, but I dont think that really matters - people can hold in their head the idea that there is a range of views across a political party, especially when the frother in question has a long held and well known animosity to the leadership. Explicitly telling them not to vote for for them is different though.

 

[brogdale]

I had, but I dont think that really matters - people can hold in their head the idea that there is a range of views across a political party, especially when the frother in question has a long held and well known animosity to the leadership. Explicitly telling them not to vote for for them is different though.

I reckon calling a reasonable chunk of your 'core' vote traitors does matter, tbh.

 

[killer b]

I reckon calling a reasonable chunk of your 'core' vote traitors does matter, tbh.

Struggling to find this speech tbh. Could you link us up butchersapron?

 

[butchersapron]

Struggling to find this speech tbh. Could you link us up butchersapron?

Can't find it after a quick look - it was jointly written piece, maybe with Will Hutton, but when i try to visualise it i keep coming up with a byline with him and a female face. I'll have a proper look after getting some grub.

 

[brogdale]

Back OT ( )

Here's the Westminster polling tracker up to this week:



Getting a bit crowded down there with the 'bottom feeders'.

 

[brogdale]

Looks like Farage's growing exposure & the growing reality of the Euro elections are having a 'spill-over' impact on the Westminster polling.
Tories continuing to take a hit and ChUK pegged on 4%.

 

[Wilf]

I think Labour have been shit over brexit - no real sign of a lexit, no real direct engagement with leave voters/places. But they've come to the point where they might as well let this play out, electorally at least. Keep well away from second ref promises and let the Tories die screaming in the local and euro elections. They also need to keep well away from supporting May's deal for the same kind of reasons. It's a shit deal anyway and they might as well let May fail on mv4. That really should be the end of the road for May - let the civil war begin. Anything could follow from that but, cynically perhaps, Labour need to remain in favour of honouring the brexit vote, but do everything they can to stop the Tories delivering it.

Edit: where I'm going with that is Labour should probably be saying 'the tories can't deliver brexit. When they've destroyed themselves, we'll do it'. It's not a particularly consistent of logical line, but it's the best there is. If a few more MPs go and join the chunks, so be it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

CHUK - 4%.

En Marche!

 

[marty21]

Surprised that the Lib Dems haven't had much of a 'remain bounce' - I'm guessing that the coalition years are still battering them.

 

[killer b]

I think Labour have been shit over brexit - no real sign of a lexit, no real direct engagement with leave voters/places. But they've come to the point where they might as well let this play out, electorally at least. Keep well away from second ref promises and let the Tories die screaming in the local and euro elections. They also need to keep well away from supporting May's deal for the same kind of reasons. It's a shit deal anyway and they might as well let May fail on mv4. That really should be the end of the road for May - let the civil war begin. Anything could follow from that but, cynically perhaps, Labour need to remain in favour of honouring the brexit vote, but do everything they can to stop the Tories delivering it.

Edit: where I'm going with that is Labour should probably be saying 'the tories can't deliver brexit. When they've destroyed themselves, we'll do it'. It's not a particularly consistent of logical line, but it's the best there is. If a few more MPs go and join the chunks, so be it.

I don't think anyone can sensibly look at those numbers and say that Labour need to come out for a second ref - they might pick up at best a couple of points from TIG and the Lib Dems, and lose at least as many from the other flank - it's just not worth it. Likewise though, a more solid pro-lexit/brexit delivery position would see them losing a lot to the FBPE parties, and I can't see them picking that much up from the faragists or tories.

 

[butchersapron]

I think Labour have been shit over brexit - no real sign of a lexit, no real direct engagement with leave voters/places. But they've come to the point where they might as well let this play out, electorally at least. Keep well away from second ref promises and let the Tories die screaming in the local and euro elections. They also need to keep well away from supporting May's deal for the same kind of reasons. It's a shit deal anyway and they might as well let May fail on mv4. That really should be the end of the road for May - let the civil war begin. Anything could follow from that but, cynically perhaps, Labour need to remain in favour of honouring the brexit vote, but do everything they can to stop the Tories delivering it.

Edit: where I'm going with that is Labour should probably be saying 'the tories can't deliver brexit. When they've destroyed themselves, we'll do it'. It's not a particularly consistent of logical line, but it's the best there is. If a few more MPs go and join the chunks, so be it.

I suspect that a large part of labour's current solid polling (domestically and european) is, as daft as it sounds, an equally solid strong remain bloc that has decided that the labour party is the only possible path to a second referendum, to a withdrawal of A50 or any other method of stopping brexit. They know full well that the lib-dem and chuk lot have no power and no chance of being anything but an irritant and that there is no way to pressure the tories - that is now all about internal stuff. But Corbyn, with his demand that the leadership do what the party membership/wider support wants has dug himself a nice little bevan sized hole and jumped right into it (and remember that bevan stuff split the labout left for what, the next 10 years?). If this is the case then the political equation for labour may well turn out to be based on a) externally - who do we want to lose least - the solid voters in the leave seats or the remain voters in the seats we don't win so often but does contain a lot of swing seats that are key to winning a national election - and b) internally how to deal with the fallout of either choice. Because they simply cannot appease both sides forever. But they can for now. In the hope another path opens up or presents itself.

 

[killer b]

they simply cannot appease both sides forever. But they can for now.

the gnashing of teeth from those who thought that time had come looking at the polls and realising it hasn't is quite funny.

 

[Wilf]

I suspect that a large part of labour's current solid polling (domestically and european) is, as daft as it sounds, an equally solid strong remain bloc that has decided that the labour party is the only possible path to a second referendum, to a withdrawal of A50 or any other method of stopping brexit. They know full well that the lib-dem and chuk lot have no power and no chance of being anything but an irritant and that there is no way to pressure the tories - that is now all about internal stuff. But Corbyn, with his demand that the leadership do what the party membership/wider support wants has dug himself a nice little bevan sized hole and jumped right into it (and remember that bevan stuff split the labout left for what, the next 10 years?). If this is the case then the political equation for labour may well turn out to be based on a) externally - who do we want to lose least - the solid voters in the leave seats or the remain voters in the seats we don't win so often but does contain a lot of swing seats that are key to winning a national election - and b) internally how to deal with the fallout of either choice. Because they simply cannot appease both sides forever. But they can for now. In the hope another path opens up or presents itself.

That sounds interesting - and convincing - in terms of what Labour's vote is made up of at the moment. I think the Bevan analogy is also right in terms of who Corbyn is looking to, regards as sovereign in the party and the rest and indeed where it may lead him. Most of all I'm thinking along the lines of the bolded bit. Corbyn and the labour left/momentum haven't done the hard work to build an alternative, probably don't have the political inclinations to construct any kind of engaged working class politics. In the absence of that, their best bet strategically is maintain their ambiguity/passivity through to at least the Euro elections. The draft leaflet and response to it shows how little room for manoeuvre this is with this strategy, but their probable victory in the local elections holds things together for a bit longer.