Political polling

[Fez909]

It was about producing a demographic factor analysis that allowed each constituency to be separately predicted direct from its demographic make up.

From which you could infer a % lead, no?

 

[kabbes]

From which you could infer a % lead, no?

What would be the point? The only reason you estimate a % lead is to guess the overall election result. The new methodology jumps straight to the result.

 

[Fez909]

What would be the point? The only reason you estimate a % lead is to guess the overall election result. The new methodology jumps straight to the result.

True.

It's possible that the 12% thing isn't even true, and it's also possible that the discrepancy isn't because of a different polling method.

Just passing on what I read...

 

[ska invita]

I read an interesting article about why there's such a wide range of figures on the polls atm - in Alabama they had a spread of 20 points or something. Basically no-one knows how to weigh anymore.

Here's the piece - almost everything in it is applicable to polls here I reckon
Why polls showing a 20-point spread in Alabama aren't actually 'wrong'

What has changed that means they used to be able to weigh and now they can't? Is it a social factor?

 

[killer b]

They can't get to enough younger voters or people who aren't politically engaged, and there's a high level of volatility between elections.

 

[belboid]

Basically, they just can’t work out who is actually likely to vote.

 

[ska invita]

Basically, they just can’t work out who is actually likely to vote.

i just dont see what has changed historically that up until recently polls used to be a lot better and are unpredictable now. How come they could tell before who would turn out and not anymore.

 

[belboid]

i just dont see what has changed historically that up until recently polls used to be a lot better and are unpredictable now. How come they could tell before who would turn out and not anymore.

It was steadier. You could pretty much draw a straight line from young to old, and working class to middle class, and predict the turnout. The last couple of votes (EU & GE) have seen massively increased turnout from the expected in wc & youth votes.

 

[ska invita]

It was steadier. You could pretty much draw a straight line from young to old, and working class to middle class, and predict the turnout. The last couple of votes (EU & GE) have seen massively increased turnout from the expected in wc & youth votes.

and i guess the point is this is true in Alabama and the last US general election also, which i think activated and deactivated people from voting in not usual patterns. seems likely this is a reflection of a changed political landscape with candidates standing who make appeals to previously sidelined groups, who buck trends of earlier models. ?

 

[redsquirrel]

Interesting piece here on the supposed increase in youth turnout

The Labour ‘youthquake’ explanation looks to become an assumed fact about the 2017 election. The Oxford English Dictionary even declared ‘youthquake’ their word of the year. But people have been much too hasty. There was no surge in youth turnout at the 2017 election.

the age-turnout relationship barely changed between 2015 and 2017. The shaded grey areas represent the margin of error that surrounds the estimated level of turnout at each age. There is no evidence of a surge in voter turnout amongst the youngest eligible voters (indeed turnout in the youngest age group is actually slightly lower in our 2017 survey).

 

[krink]

There was an interesting poll last night here in Sunderland! Seat came up in Pallion ward (solid poor, working class area) after leader of the council Paul Watson died. Libs won quite easily with a big drop for the Labour, tory, green and ukip candidates. 32% turnout which I think is probably normal for this area. This is the second safe labour council seat the libs have taken lately and it seems to be down to general pessimism with the usual suspects and the libs actually doing stuff in the area. I have trouble with this phone so I have no links but here is a screenshot of a results sheet


33% swing to libs I heard

 

[NoXion]

Jesus fucking Christ why won't the Lib Dems just fuck off and die already?

 

[Voley]

Opinium 10/7/18

LAB: 40%
CON: 36%
LD: 8%
UKIP 8%

Political Polling 10th July 2018 - Opinium

Biggest Labour lead since the general election but that's just because people have turned to UKIP according to The Guardian:

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election

 

[SikhWarrioR]

Jesus fucking Christ why won't the Lib Dems just fuck off and die already?

I seem to remember reading that following their emm ah um achievements 2010 to 2015 the fib-dimotwats said they would be happy to jump into bed with the conservatives again if it was required. any one comfirm this.

 

[billy_bob]

I seem to remember reading that following their emm ah um achievements 2010 to 2015 the fib-dimotwats said they would be happy to jump into bed with the conservatives again if it was required. any one comfirm this.

I haven't read them saying so, but yes - I can confirm that they would do it again.

 

[newbie]

Ever wondered why we get so many polls published, and in whose interests they're conducted?

Nicky Morgan, a Conservative MP and chair of the powerful Treasury select committee, has written to British Polling Council president, Sir John Curtice, warning that the use of private polling data during election and referendum campaigns could risk the integrity of financial markets.

It follows a Bloomberg report earlier this year into private polling data sold by companies such as YouGov, Survation and ICM in the run-up to the 2016 Brexit vote.

They were bought by hedge funds eager to cash in on extreme volatility in currency markets and profit from the result of the EU referendum, with several commissioning private exit polls in order to bet on the price of sterling.

The pound was trading above $1.50 on the eve of the vote, before tumbling to $1.32 when it became clear that leave was to emerge victorious, netting millions for those on the right side of the bet.

Immediately after the Brexit referendum polls closed at 10pm on 23 June 2016, the then Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, gave an interview to Sky News in which he said “it looks like Remain will edge it”.

The news of an apparent concession by the leave campaign’s most prominent figure immediately after polls closed briefly pushed the value of sterling up to its highest level in six months.

However, when the pound subsequently crashed as the true result became clear, any individuals or companies with short bets would have profited. Shorting is the practice of selling shares or other assets which you do not own, in the hope of buying them back at a cheaper price in the future and making a profit.

Farage has denied placing currency bets against sterling and told Bloomberg in June that the only external exit poll he received on the day of the referendum was conducted by Survation. Survation’s poll correctly predicted that leave would win the referendum.

He repeatedly told Bloomberg that he learned the results of the exit poll “minutes after” Sky broadcast his comments.

“The integrity of UK financial markets is a key concern of the Treasury committee and the Bloomberg report raises concerns in this regard,” Morgan said.

The Tory MP is calling on the British Polling Council to modify its rules so pollsters are forced to inform respondents to polls that the information they supply may be used to help private clients make money.

In addition, polling firms would have to disclose, when publishing or discussing published polls, whether they have conducted similar work on behalf of private clients.

Under her proposals they would have to disclose whether published polls have been conducted free of charge, or at a discount to the usual fee such work would attract.

Hedge funds' purchase of Brexit vote polling data under scrutiny

 

[marty21]

Ever wondered why we get so many polls published, and in whose interests they're conducted?




Hedge funds' purchase of Brexit vote polling data under scrutiny

#grubby

 

[brogdale]

In YG's latest...18% of those questioned thought the Government were doing "well" at negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. 18%; extraordinary.

 

[cupid_stunt]

TBF, no one knows how well the negotiations are actually going, none of us have that inside knowledge.

Although, according to both the EU & our government, we are 95% there.

 

[brogdale]

TBF, no one knows how well the negotiations are actually going, none of us have that inside knowledge.

Although, according to both the EU & our government, we are 95% there.

Yep, but pollsters ask 'how well/badly do you think'...sentiment, innit.

 

[Poi E]

In YG's latest...18% of those questioned thought the Government were doing "well" at negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. 18%; extraordinary.

View attachment 150362

I know. That high!

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yep, but pollsters ask 'how well/badly do you think'...sentiment, innit.

Which makes the poll totally fucking pointless.

 

[killer b]

Which makes the poll totally fucking pointless.

It isn't though is it? They aren't polling to find out how well the talks are going - that would be pointless. They're polling to find out how well people think they're going, which is a fairly key measure of 'national mood' right now.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It isn't though is it? They aren't polling to find out how well the talks are going - that would be pointless. They're polling to find out how well people think they're going, which is a fairly key measure of 'national mood' right now.

Unless we are about to have a general election, measuring the 'national mood', over something no one actually knows the detail about, is pointless IMO.

 

[killer b]

The workings of government in general is pretty opaque to the majority of the public. I don't think that means polling in general is pointless does it?

 

[brogdale]

Which makes the poll totally fucking pointless.

Polling has it's critics and many faults, but asking a sample of the electorate how they feel about the effectiveness of a Govt/policy etc. does have a point. Sampling like this is the 'dynamic' data that helps to fill some of the gaps between the (static) snapshot glimpses offered by episodes of formal political democracy.

 

[brogdale]

I know. That high!

Nearly 1 in 5, FFS.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Polling has failed time & time again when it's important, as in attempting to predict the outcome of elections or the bloody EU referendum, and has therefore proved to be fairly pointless.

Trying to measure people's mood over something they have no inside knowledge of whatsoever is beyond laughable.

 

[killer b]

Polling has failed time & time again when it's important, as in attempting to predict the outcome of elections or the bloody EU referendum, and has therefore proved to be fairly pointless.

when were they outside the margin of error?

 

[cupid_stunt]

when were they outside the margin of error?

You are seriously asking that?