It's below 40, that's a landmark
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
No country for third parties
lazythursday
Averagely-Known Member
46 is highest ever Labour score in a YouGov poll apparently.
Cheers, just looking it all up here
First Labour lead was recorded 28/7/92 when MORI/Sunday Times had 43/39
After 17/9/92 there was only one Tory lead before the General Election in 1997 - a weird looking outlier of an ICM/Guardian poll on 9/1/93 that showed a Tory lead of 39/37. ICM seem to have regularly found the lowest Labour totals.
First time Labour passed the 46% of the other day was 19/10/92 when Gallup recorded a 51/29 Labour lead
Next four and a half years was spent with Labour regularly polling in the high 40s, 50s and even low 60s.
No Tory lead was recorded between January 1993 and September 2000
Long way to go then. Hopefully not the full five years like 92-97 mind
this poll about people's impressions of the general election campaign has some quite interesting numbers. Look at the % of those who's main impression was a positive view of May....
YouGov | What people recall about the Tory and Labour election campaigns
YouGov | What people recall about the Tory and Labour election campaigns
Two on Sunday:
Opinium: CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc)
Survation/Mail on Sunday: CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2)
One out today but with fieldwork 10/11 July:
YouGov: Con 40% (+2), Lab 45% (-1), LD 7%, Oth 8%
Opinium: CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc)
Survation/Mail on Sunday: CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2)
One out today but with fieldwork 10/11 July:
YouGov: Con 40% (+2), Lab 45% (-1), LD 7%, Oth 8%
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
The anti-Brexit LibDem surge continues unabated I see.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
There's not a great deal of anything happening at the moment, it's all a kind of stalemate now the DUP thing is worked out and while the Brexit talks are in their infancy and not really doing anything, and while the twunts in the PLP continue their sniping (albeit mildly more subdued in nature than previously).
Hopefully this fucking stupid public sector pay thing from Hammond will get more coverage and shift things again, but then public sector workers aren't automatically feted (in the way they are when something like Grenfell happens) like you might expect after decades of treating them like scum in the press.
Hopefully this fucking stupid public sector pay thing from Hammond will get more coverage and shift things again, but then public sector workers aren't automatically feted (in the way they are when something like Grenfell happens) like you might expect after decades of treating them like scum in the press.
ICM/Guardian 14-16/7: Con 42% (+1), Lab 43% (nc), LD 7% (nc), UKIP 3% (nc) changes from two weeks previous
YouGov/Times 18-19/7: Con 41% (+1), Lab 43% (-2), LD 6% (-1), UKIP 3%
IpsosMORI/Standard 14-18/7: Con 41%, Lab 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 3%
All showing a small Labour lead, Tories still won't drop below 40. Only One Tory lead since GE (Survation end of June)
YouGov/Times 18-19/7: Con 41% (+1), Lab 43% (-2), LD 6% (-1), UKIP 3%
IpsosMORI/Standard 14-18/7: Con 41%, Lab 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 3%
All showing a small Labour lead, Tories still won't drop below 40. Only One Tory lead since GE (Survation end of June)
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Good question - and it gets us right to the question of what the Labour/Corbyn surge at the election was. Given that I thought the Tories would increase their majority, I'm not going to suggest anything with confidence, but there certainly were 'special circumstances' going on last month. It was a weird election that was supposed to be about brexit and leadership and ended up being about the tory manifesto and multiple campaign trail fuck ups. It also seems to have produced an unusual coalition, labour doing better amongst working class voters but in a very patchy way + the influx of younger voters. We don't know whether that will hold and we don't know how a future campaign would run when there would be a genuine focus on Corbyn as a potential prime minister. The other issue of course - more helpful for Labour - is that the next election will probably be after a shit brexit deal has been reached, unless May is replaced and the new PM calls a snap election. As I said on the Corbyn thread I think the chances of May being booted out pre-brexit have probably receded a bit - and you'd imagine even if she was was, the incoming leader wouldn't call an election before the deal was done. That would be 2 elections amid the negotiations, the voters would think the govt were taking the piss.
That's all a ramble and an extended version of saying we don't really know what the underlying trends in the electorate are (or indeed the kind of election the next one will be). The obvious point is that Labour are in a stronger position than they've been since about 2012, when they were setting the agenda in terms of opposing the 'fast and deep' version of austerity. But things are so messy that I'm not convinced they could get a majority or even become the largest party, even now.
Speaking of Brexit polling, this piece from Kellner is interesting (maybe)
Crunching the numbers: Are voters really turning against Brexit?
Crunching the numbers: Are voters really turning against Brexit?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think this is the key bit:
to me, the interesting trend is that several months of mounting omnishambles in the tory party/cabinet, along with a press narrative that there will either be no deal or a bad deal has only produced a small shift. My pure guess is that if there was another ref it could go either way. There would be a lot of outrage about rerunning the will of the people, to get the elite's 'right result' balanced against the growing notion that brexit is going badly. Maybe Remain would win it, but on a lower turnout.
Well, all the polls are moving glacially atm, but I think there's a clear direction of movement in all of them. Corbyn/May now on level, Labour 4-6 points ahead... The slowness of movement is IMO probably down to just how poisonous Corbyn and the EU are to huge swathes of the population as much as anything else.
bemused
Well-Known Member
I'm reasonably confident that by the next election the Tories will have a new leader and a much better campaign. Although May seems to be a rather good manager as a campaigner she's got the media presence of an unlikable teacher. The question is what leader they end up with? Ruth Davidson would make it the most interesting fight, but she's not in Parliment and Rudd who appears the saner choice of frontbenchers is sitting on a majority of 300ish.
The Tory Party have the same problem Labour did at their last serious leadership election - none of the established candidates has any personal charm. Corbyn is if you like him or not most will accept he has a personality and degree of charm.
I'm hoping we're election free until after Brexit, I've had enough of voting.
bemused
Well-Known Member
I'd rather not have another election. We had one, there was a winner.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
The DUP.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
They will certainly present it better and will almost certainly have a more effective leader, but the problems the 2017 Tory campaign faced with regards to policies will be even worse next time around. The status quo is going to be vomit and its very hard to see any of them (leaders or otherwise) even proposing credible solutions to the very real crises in the military, housing, student finance, social care, the NHS and the rest; there isn't any real evidence that many of them actually acknowledge these crises exist - something perhaps proved by the fact that the only thing they have really been outraged about since the election is Uber losing its licence.
Silas Loom
A lome the lenthe of a yerde
Why would internal polling be more trustworthy? Surely the samples are less stable and the weighting less reliable?
JimW
支那暗杀团
True or some sort of three-dimensional chess?
Fez909
toilet expert
According to the Reddit thread on this, the parties are using the more expensive and accurate polling methods that YouGov used in the election run up. The media won't run these polls so far off an election due to cost so they're still using the old, inaccurate methods.
Silas Loom
A lome the lenthe of a yerde
kabbes
First intersubjective, then internalised
The new YouGov methodology wasn’t about producing a percentage point lead, though. That was the whole point. It was about producing a demographic factor analysis that allowed each constituency to be separately predicted direct from its demographic make up.
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