Political polling

[chilango]

Remain voter voting patterns are significant. Labour became the party of the remain vote and did relatively badly in pro peace areas. The data is overwhelming on this point.

...but, that's making assumptions about there being such a thing as a "Remain voter". YouGov are always asking me about whether I voted Remain or not. I did. But I could easily have not. It was touch n go. They'll now be linking that to my Labour vote - which was equally touch n go. Making a connection that isn't there. My vote for Labour had absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Nobody I know voted on the basis of Brexit, it was all about the manifesto - education, health care etc.

 

[lazythursday]

But to be absolutely clear - the people voting Corbyn were not those in the left behind deindustrialised areas or the youth not benefiting from further or higher education or their families for that matter.

I think that is simplifying things to some extent given that Labour held most of those deindustrialised areas with some exceptions and that can't have come solely through 'middle class' votes.

I guess the 'networked worker' as defined by Paul Mason etc - are likely defined as 'middle class' in the stats - I guess the question is whether they should be viewed as a new part of the working class or not. I'm not sure the traditional ABCDE class definitions are always very helpful these days.

 

[Lord Camomile]

...but, that's making assumptions about there being such a thing as a "Remain voter". YouGov are always asking me about whether I voted Remain or not. I did. But I could easily have not. It was touch n go. They'll now be linking that to my Labour vote - which was equally touch n go. Making a connection that isn't there. My vote for Labour had absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Nobody I know voted on the basis of Brexit, it was all about the manifesto - education, health care etc.

This is exactly why I've been trying to get everyone to write to their MP stating precisely why they voted the way they did. Not doing a very good job, though

Everyone's trying to guess and interpret polls and trends - just bloody ask people!

 

[chilango]

This is exactly why I've been trying to get everyone to write to their MP stating precisely why they voted the way they did. Not doing a very good job, though

Everyone's trying to guess and interpret polls and trends - just bloody ask people!

Yeah.

I suspect that there are common demographic factors that can be found in common in both the remain vote and the upswing in the Labour vote. But that's not the same as Remain=Labour.

 

[killer b]

None of this polling is a unexpected is it? The working classes voting for the tories in Labour heartlands was expected to win the tories the election by a landslide - that this demographic shift didn't happen in the numbers that was expected is one of the main reasons we don't currently have a government: but of course it happened. Labour managed to hold back the tide somewhat - the question now (one which I'm sure they're giving some serious thought to) is can they turn it around?

My own conversations suggest that one of Labour's biggest issues with that demographic was simply that they had no confidence in the Labour leadership or the wider Labour party - they thought Corbyn was a clown, the party hopelessly divided (it's no coincidence that these things formed a main plank of the Tory election campaign). I think the election campaign changed some minds (hence the move to tory not being as pronounced as expected), the result and what's happened since will do still more - which is what I expect we're seeing in post-election polling. There's still a long way for them to go though.

 

[eoin_k]

I think that is simplifying things to some extent given that Labour held most of those deindustrialised areas with some exceptions and that can't have come solely through 'middle class' votes.

I guess the 'networked worker' as defined by Paul Mason etc - are likely defined as 'middle class' in the stats - I guess the question is whether they should be viewed as a new part of the working class or not. I'm not sure the traditional ABCDE class definitions are always very helpful these days.

According to this definition, people categorised as C1 (29%, the lowest clerical administrative category) and C2 (21%, skilled manual workers) are middle class. Between them they represent half the population and each account for about the same number of people as the combined total of D (17%, semi-unskilled manual workers) and E (8%, not working). A social categorisation developed by market researchers turns the working class into a quarter of the population and a fifth of the workforce.

 

[kabbes]

According to this definition, people categorised as C1 (29%, the lowest clerical administrative category) and C2 (21%, skilled manual workers) are middle class. Between them they represent half the population and each account for about the same number of people as the combined total of D (17%, semi-unskilled manual workers) and E (8%, not working). A social categorisation developed by market researchers turns the working class into a quarter of the population and a fifth of the workforce.

I don't want to say it, but it hurts my maths.

It turns the working class into a sixth of the workforce.

Now I feel better.

 

[eoin_k]

I don't want to say it, but it hurts my maths.

It turns the working class into a sixth of the workforce.

Now I feel better.

I was approximating D/(A+B+C+D) and rounding up, not D/100.

 

[kabbes]

I was approximating D/(A+B+C+D) not D/100.

So you were. I stand corrected.

I'm getting old. I should retire before someone gets hurt.

 

[belboid]

C2 is generally taken as working class. Although the whole thing is bollocks and totally unmarxist definition. I think it says quite a lot about what kind of jobs have disappeared too, automation either destroying C2 jobs or turning them into minimum wage versions.

Labour still has a lot of work to do in those areas, like Mansfield or Grimsby, where the former industries have been destroyed and not replaced. Vague talk about big data and coworking doesn't really cut it.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

None of this polling is a unexpected is it? The working classes voting for the tories in Labour heartlands was expected to win the tories the election by a landslide - that this demographic shift didn't happen in the numbers that was expected is one of the main reasons we don't currently have a government: but of course it happened. Labour managed to hold back the tide somewhat - the question now (one which I'm sure they're giving some serious thought to) is can they turn it around?

My own conversations suggest that one of Labour's biggest issues with that demographic was simply that they had no confidence in the Labour leadership or the wider Labour party - they thought Corbyn was a clown, the party hopelessly divided (it's no coincidence that these things formed a main plank of the Tory election campaign).

Yes. I think that's pretty accurate. But the narrative being spun by Momentum and Owen Jones types is that the result indicates a mass return of the working class to the ranks of labour. The data and our own eyes tell us that this isn't the case or at the very least is a very partial reading of the data.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Labour still has a lot of work to do in those areas, like Mansfield or Grimsby, where the former industries have been destroyed and not replaced. Vague talk about big data and coworking doesn't really cut it.

Yes absolutely. The National Investment Bank was a potentially good idea but was undersold and poorly explained during the campaign. A missed opportunity

 

[chilango]

Yes. I think that's pretty accurate. But the narrative being spun by Momentum and Owen Jones types is that the result indicates a mass return of the working class to the ranks of labour. The data and our own eyes tell us that this isn't the case or at the very least is a very partial reading of the data.

There's an element of truth in this though.

And a very important one.

It's people who used to see themselves (or older generations doing the same jobs) as comfortably middle-class and vote accordingly are beginning doubt this...

 

[Vintage Paw]

 

[killer b]

The first time a Labour leader has been ahead on that poll since 2007 apparently

 

[Vintage Paw]

The first time a Labour leader has been ahead on that poll since 2007 apparently

But of course, we should replace him with a moderate middle manager to really appeal to ordinary, hard working people.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Returning to the question of who voted for labour in the GE this research by Paula Surridge at Bristol University delves deeper into questions of class, identity and political attitudes (and finds youth voters less radical on economic issues but more socially liberal than other groups)

Who’s left? – Paula Surridge – Medium

 

[J Ed]

 

[Ptolemy]

Great to see that Corbyn is so far ahead of May on approval ratings - but those Conservative party numbers just don't want to fall below 40%. Still, fair play to Corbyn and Labour - who could have predicted this at the start of the election campaign?

 

[danny la rouge]

Lol, I can't wait for Dan Hodges to soil himself in rage.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Lol, I can't wait for Dan Hodges to soil himself in rage.

Just don't tell Mark Oaten when it happens.

 

[mather]

Just don't tell Mark Oaten when it happens.

LOL!

 

[Vintage Paw]

Lol, I can't wait for Dan Hodges to soil himself in rage.

 

[lazythursday]

Excellent data here on the surge for the conservatives (the more working class people in a constituency the higher their vote) and the labour surge (the more middle class, remain, students in a constituency the higher their vote. Ditto for ethnic minority voters).

Under Corbyn labour are building a coalition of younger, better educated, middle class, pro EU people:

Does the working class need to ask for its Labour Party back?

The data / analysis in this is carefully examined here: All That Is Solid ...: Corbynism and the Middle Class

It seems that the working class conservative surge only really applies to the over 55s. The bulk of the working age working class voted Labour.

 

[Ole]

Excellent data here on the surge for the conservatives (the more working class people in a constituency the higher their vote) and the labour surge (the more middle class, remain, students in a constituency the higher their vote. Ditto for ethnic minority voters).

Under Corbyn labour are building a coalition of younger, better educated, middle class, pro EU people:

Does the working class need to ask for its Labour Party back?

On the other hand, this data shows that the more working-class voters were, in every age group, the more likely they were to vote Labour and the less likely they were to vote Conservative.

 

[Vintage Paw]

 

[kabbes]

On the other hand, this data shows that the more working-class voters were, in every age group, the more likely they were to vote Labour and the less likely they were to vote Conservative.

And in every age group, the less working class, the more likely to vote Lib Dem, I note.

 

[Ole]

Even split on that Marxist rag the FT.

 

[JimW]

Twelve percent of Labour-voting Torygraph readers buy it for the cricket?

 

[Ole]

Twelve percent of Labour-voting Torygraph readers buy it for the cricket?

I buy it for the football occasionally