DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
its all Frank Fields subscriptions
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Sometimes WH Smith's at train stations have a promotion whereby you get a free bottle of water with the telegraph (which costs less than the bottle of water), leading to the situation where you go to buy a bottle of water and at the till the person helpfully lets you know that you get the water free if you buy the telegraph, and the telegraph is cheaper than the water, leaving you having to decide if you're willing to pay more not to take the telegraph and that you can't really justify not taking it and so you end up reading some of it on the train and telling yougov you've read the telegraph in the last 7 days.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Look at that sliver of purple reading the Graun, lol.
Ole
Well-Known Member
Not sure where to put this but it's from UK Polling Report so here it is.
Analysis of how the recent GE results may have looked under the proposed new boundaries (which look less and less likely to be implemented). I'd caution that with new boundaries some people may be inclined to vote differently (tactical votes etc) anyway, but it shows how although both big parties would lose a similar number of seats (19/18), it would leave the Tories closer to a majority and probably able to get away without doing deals.
Some numbers in there around how the current distribution of votes makes it easier for the Tories to win than Labour (ie Labour need to be over seven points ahead to win an overall majority compared to the Tories' 3+) - this used to be the other way around until 2015. I assume this reflects Labour's relative loss of support in Middle England type seats and gains in the cities, piling up massive majorities in already safe seats. Also gains in places they may never win (Weston super Mare - 18,000 votes, highest there since 1945, still way behind the Tories).
Anyway: UK Polling Report
Analysis of how the recent GE results may have looked under the proposed new boundaries (which look less and less likely to be implemented). I'd caution that with new boundaries some people may be inclined to vote differently (tactical votes etc) anyway, but it shows how although both big parties would lose a similar number of seats (19/18), it would leave the Tories closer to a majority and probably able to get away without doing deals.
Some numbers in there around how the current distribution of votes makes it easier for the Tories to win than Labour (ie Labour need to be over seven points ahead to win an overall majority compared to the Tories' 3+) - this used to be the other way around until 2015. I assume this reflects Labour's relative loss of support in Middle England type seats and gains in the cities, piling up massive majorities in already safe seats. Also gains in places they may never win (Weston super Mare - 18,000 votes, highest there since 1945, still way behind the Tories).
Anyway: UK Polling Report
BemusedbyLife
Well-Known Member
I doubt that the boundary changes will get done in the current Parliament (however long it lasts), it's expending far too much limited political capital on something that isn't worth much. The idea isn't dead but it will probably wait till whenever we next have another Tory majority.
The Tories have 2 advantages, they're already the biggest party with the most votes and seats and being the actual government they can try and manipulate events in their favour, though they're limited in this by being a minority govt and that on the biggest issue of all they have to negotiate, they can't just dictate what they want.
Labour's advantages are that not being the government they aren't tainted by however big a pile of shit the Brexit deal is and whilst a lot of people may not love them, there's plenty hate the Tories.
The next election (next year is my guess) could go either way, The Tories need a smaller swing to win than Labour do but a swing either way is well within the margins we saw at the last election.
As for polls remember the predictions of a Tory landslide? (I'm down from hysterical laughing to good natured chuckling now but it's still funny) their methodologies obviously are increasingly disconnected from reality and have been for some years since this isn't their first big miss.
I'm a lot more positive today than I was on 7th June.
The Tories have 2 advantages, they're already the biggest party with the most votes and seats and being the actual government they can try and manipulate events in their favour, though they're limited in this by being a minority govt and that on the biggest issue of all they have to negotiate, they can't just dictate what they want.
Labour's advantages are that not being the government they aren't tainted by however big a pile of shit the Brexit deal is and whilst a lot of people may not love them, there's plenty hate the Tories.
The next election (next year is my guess) could go either way, The Tories need a smaller swing to win than Labour do but a swing either way is well within the margins we saw at the last election.
As for polls remember the predictions of a Tory landslide? (I'm down from hysterical laughing to good natured chuckling now but it's still funny) their methodologies obviously are increasingly disconnected from reality and have been for some years since this isn't their first big miss.
I'm a lot more positive today than I was on 7th June.
Not sure it's worth a thread of its own but I'm still uneasy about this. So many remainer social liberal Tories and Corbyn hating Labour MPs in safe seats that this could have potential.
Maybe I'm worrying about nothing.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
I don't see any appetite for a new centrist party from the voters, people seem to be responding better to the two wings than they have for ages.
If there was one I imagine it would take votes from the Tories and Labour put only as the Libdems do now...
Yeah I get all that as well. Feel there's some sort of gap with the Brexit negotations that are going to be protracted & painful.
Just trying to grasp at what might be happening within the sickening Westminster bubble.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
I imagine Macron has re-energised them somewhat. But it's a non-starter, and they surely have to realise that?
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Macron because total collapse of the Socialist Party. Although they might have hoped for it, the equivalent thing has not happened in the UK.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
I know. Different conditions. Which is why I said surely they have to realise that.
Latest ICM
Labour: 43% (up 5)
Conservatives: 41% (down 2)
Lib Dems: 7% (down 1)
Ukip: 3% (down 1)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
Labour lead: 2 points (up 7)
The changes are, confusingly, from the ICM eve of election poll, if that poll was weighted using the 2015 weighting methodology (as the 2017 weighting was way out).
Labour: 43% (up 5)
Conservatives: 41% (down 2)
Lib Dems: 7% (down 1)
Ukip: 3% (down 1)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
Labour lead: 2 points (up 7)
The changes are, confusingly, from the ICM eve of election poll, if that poll was weighted using the 2015 weighting methodology (as the 2017 weighting was way out).
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why the jeff are respect in there
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Maybe Yougov think that Galloway's alt right turn will bear fruit soon.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Lot of political gangsta at it right now - only need one to breakthrough....
Both parties moving in opposite directions now across more than one poll
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