Political polling

[Wilf]

Because Labour have managed to position themselves as a positive choice rather than a 'least bad' option this time round. Or rather, I think they might have managed to do both: enthuse a whole load of people as a positive choice, and now they're scooping up the least bad vote.

I suppose my wet blanket reply is that they probably haven't done that i.e. that this poll isn't correct or at least doesn't represent what will happen on the day (and what happens on the day will of course have an element of voter suppression). But running with the scenario of this poll, I still don't quite see what the connection has been between, specifically, young voters and Labour. Labour have been a shambles since 2015 with regard to the basics of being a functioning machine, getting any kind of message out. Yes, there's certainly been a message in Labour's policies and manifesto that should have appealed to working class voters - but let's be clear, until 2 weeks ago Labour were still seen as a shambles.

I think ultimately all the things we know about are still in play, people feeling abandoned by politicians, everything feeling adrift, a dreadfully uninspiring Tory leader, class mapping onto electoral politics in quite indirect ways. All of the leading to greater volatility, even to the point where answering a poll is no longer about actually stating how you intend to vote. AKA I don't know what the fuck is happening.

 

[newbie]

just as a tiny reality intrusion, let's recognise we'll all be on a (metaphorical) protest march within the next few months, whoever gets in.

All we're going to get out of this is another government

 

[Wilf]

Where else would they go in England? To the yellow scum? Hardly likely after the coalition gov and broken promise on HE fees. To the Greens? Well maybe, but in addition to not having a chance anywhere bar two/three seats they're backing Labour in plenty of seats. What other options are there? Labour have managed to sew up the anti-Tory vote (at least in England), and the threat of a Tory landslide strengthened the anti-Tory vote.

Yeah, I get that, but it's more a question of why now. 2010 was understandable, Labour were barely the 'left option' (to say the least) and had been running an economy in crisis. But why did Labour not get those votes in 2015, right after the economic stagnation and cuts? I'm no fan of Miliband, Labour or social democracy, but on some kind of spectrum they could make some kind of claim to being the least bad of the big parties. But my real question is why not a month ago or even 2 weeks ago? Labour were positioned exactly where they are now, but were polling in the high 20s.

 

[killer b]

Less people than you imagine pay that much attention to party politics between elections I guess. It's still a very surprising turnaround, mind.

 

[killer b]

Also the Tory campaign has been a disaster. No such issue in 2015.

 

[BigTom]

I was polled by YouGov at the right time for this one. They asked my postcode and then asked a secondary question about specific candidates in my constitutency even though they'd already asked about general party voting intentions (in several ways to see if I'd crack).

yes, you're right, I had the same, I assumed it was just to see if people who said they'd eg vote labour in the general question also said the same for their constituency.

 

[brogdale]

Also the Tory campaign has been a disaster. No such issue in 2015.

Rongest suicide note in history?

 

[Rimbaud]

Yeah, I get that, but it's more a question of why now. 2010 was understandable, Labour were barely the 'left option' (to say the least) and had been running an economy in crisis. But why did Labour not get those votes in 2015, right after the economic stagnation and cuts? I'm no fan of Miliband, Labour or social democracy, but on some kind of spectrum they could make some kind of claim to being the least bad of the big parties. But my real question is why not a month ago or even 2 weeks ago? Labour were positioned exactly where they are now, but were polling in the high 20s.

I reckon the sudden change is because the anti-Corbyn sentiment was actually not very deep-rooted. People were repeating what they see in the news but not necessarily believing it very deeply - and come election time people have started to engage more seriously. The manifesto is a big part of it too, beforehand most people weren't really sure of what Corbyn stood for, and now that they do know they can judge him on that rather than whatever nonsense the Tory press throws on him.

 

[danny la rouge]

yes, you're right, I had the same, I assumed it was just to see if people who said they'd eg vote labour in the general question also said the same for their constituency.

I did too, but it wasn't their usual format so I noticed. Then when I saw the seat prediction I put the two together.

 

[killer b]

Rongest suicide note in history?

It may prove to be a document of the purest hubris.

 

[brogdale]

It may prove to be a document of the purest hubris.

 

[JTG]

Yeah, I get that, but it's more a question of why now. 2010 was understandable, Labour were barely the 'left option' (to say the least) and had been running an economy in crisis. But why did Labour not get those votes in 2015, right after the economic stagnation and cuts? I'm no fan of Miliband, Labour or social democracy, but on some kind of spectrum they could make some kind of claim to being the least bad of the big parties. But my real question is why not a month ago or even 2 weeks ago? Labour were positioned exactly where they are now, but were polling in the high 20s.

Greater exposure to policies, manifestos and personalities

 

[Wilf]

Also the Tory campaign has been a disaster. No such issue in 2015.

That gets to what I'm asking really. Politics is often thought of as a process of spin, manipulation and impression management - right through to left arguments around ideological manipulation and false consciousness. My take is that it's always ultimately about material interests and they way people relate their own experiences to the realm of politics (Brexit of course). But then how to see this (apparent) turnaround in the polls. Is it a logical, almost Enlightenment notion of younger voters looking at what's on offer and relating it to their own lack of jobs and housing - or is it just more messy churn and the Tories fucking up and looking bad?

 

[JTG]

yes, you're right, I had the same, I assumed it was just to see if people who said they'd eg vote labour in the general question also said the same for their constituency.

It could be used both ways. Just deeper analysis/more number crunching

 

[J Ed]

Telegraph and Mail running with stories designed to stem the tide of UKIP voters from the Tories, associating Labour with immigration. This has to be a gamble to an extent, doesn't it? Surely if the Tories run on nativism hard enough they will depress the turnout of some of their socially liberal voters and ethnic minority voters.

 

[newbie]

yes, you're right, I had the same, I assumed it was just to see if people who said they'd eg vote labour in the general question also said the same for their constituency.

yes, I also was explicitly asked that when I was polled. But that was by Populus and it hasn't been published and I'm afraid I was too innocent to ask who'd commissioned it.

 

[Dogsauce]

Do those socially liberal tories read the Mail and Telegraph? There might be a different tone they push through other outlets, e.g. BBC news.

 

[Wilf]

Do those socially liberal tories read the Mail and Telegraph? There might be a different tone they push through other outlets, e.g. BBC news.

Its the guardian wot won it.

 

[hot air baboon]

can someone post the Adolf Hitler bunker rant meme as & when it appears ?

 

[Kaka Tim]

more i think about it, the more i think that the you gov seat projection is a deliberate part of the latest tory strategy. Its on the front page of a murdoch rag for starters. I guess its cos they want to focus on "coalition of chaos" "nicola sturgeon will steal your brexit" etc. (the pitch that may have won them the 2015 election).

I suspect that you gov poll showing the tories only 4pts ahead may be off as well - I agree with Wilf to an extent. Fundamentals like best leader and economic competence still favour the tories.
Corbyn has played a bit of a blinder and May has been fucking awful - but for him to go from Citizen Bean to elder statesman in four weeks in the eyes of the electorate is a bit much to swallow.

I still think tory majority of 40-60. Labour 35% vote share. A pretty decent result for corbyn in the circumstances - and May damaged - possibly fatally.

 

[newbie]

Have any polls been published recently showing which issues motivate voting intention?

 

[rutabowa]

I guess its cos they want to focus on "coalition of chaos" "nicola sturgeon will steal your brexit" etc. (the pitch that may have won them the 2015 election).

Yep stand by for this in the next week.

 

[free spirit]

Even after seeing the incredibly unlikely win Corbyn got within the Labour leadership election -- from basically zero no-hoper also-ran to as much as everybody else combined -- everybody still thought it impossible he could gain hard during a general election campaign.

We overweight the status quo. Nobody ever sees actual changes coming,

I always suspected this could be on the cards - 600,000 members can make a big difference during an election period in the crucial marginal seats as can the exposure given to corbyn.

The Tories made the mistake of viewing May as their biggest asset and Corbyn as Labours biggest weakness, but they got that arse about tit. Corbyn is a big net asset to the Labour campaign when he's actually given the chance to speak directly to the people, May is the opposite.

Labour were also better prepared for a snap election than the tories after starting to prepare for one in the Autumn.

 

[kabbes]

Labour were also better prepared for a snap election than the tories after starting to prepare for one in the Autumn.

Something which, to give him credit, was a Corbyn initiative and which he did in spite of many of us saying it was pointless because of fixed term governments.

 

[free spirit]

A big difference between YouGov and ICM then. Of course neither of them are correct but one will by chance be closer to the actual result. They will then claim they have cleverly worked out a great methodology, only to get it wrong in the next election because it's different next time.

I think people would be better off having honest conversations with doorstep canvassers from both parties than latching on to one of the polls.

ICM are more wrong IMO, they're massively underestimating the likely turnout of the under 25s because their questioning isn't based on this election coming up but on a generic election and is prefaced with a leading bit of text about many people not voting.

Why would so many extra young people be registering to vote if they still had no intention of voting?

 

[killer b]

I have no doubt the tories have been preparing since the autumn too.

 

[Dogsauce]

In a few days we'll get a different poll with a 15% Tory lead again, and we can all calm down.

 

[JTG]

ICM are more wrong IMO, they're massively underestimating the likely turnout of the under 25s because their questioning isn't based on this election coming up but on a generic election and is prefaced with a leading bit of text about many people not voting.

Why would so many extra young people be registering to vote if they still had no intention of voting?

I do wonder if the enthusiasm of younger people may be rubbing off on their parents and/or enabling them to see it through their eyes - bringing housing, student fees etc into sharp focus

 

[free spirit]

Something which, to give him credit, was a Corbyn initiative and which he did in spite of many of us saying it was pointless because of fixed term governments.

indeed.

IMO his leadership in preparing for this election has been excellent, he and his team been getting on and preparing the ground behind the scenes even while the new labour dickheads have been publicly attacking him and keeping the poll ratings down.

The social media campaign as well is many times more effective than their piss poor efforts in 2015, they're hitting millions of supporters and likely supports multiple times a day from the various corbyn supporting pages as well as the main official Labour and Corbyn pages.

 

[J Ed]

indeed.

IMO his leadership in preparing for this election has been excellent, he and his team been getting on and preparing the ground behind the scenes even while the new labour dickheads have been publicly attacking him and keeping the poll ratings down.

The social media campaign as well is many times more effective than their piss poor efforts in 2015, they're hitting millions of supporters and likely supports multiple times a day from the various corbyn supporting pages as well as the main official Labour and Corbyn pages.

Lab is using targeted adverts too, something which the Tories did but the Labour Party didn't do in 2015 iirc.