Political polling

[Corax]

If Teh Markets tank then I'll lose my keys, my income will be used for less cocaine, and my left bollock is going to turn up in the punch bowl of a swinger's party in Stoke?

Swingers' parties? Cocaine? Keys?

One can dream I suppose...




PS - Intentional or not your apostrophe placement for the Stoke shindig strikes me with an even more depressing affair than otherwise - well done you. Only one set of keys in a bowl, and Now 17 on repeat.

 

[Wilf]

Wasn't it Peter Hitchens who said polls don't exist to reflect public opinion but to sway it?

He's half right. Polls do both of those things. But I am minded that this yougov prediction is likely to shore up that Tory base to a greater extent than it is to enthuse more Labour voters to come out on June 8th.

Yep. It might be okay if Labour were banana skin free and had a few sparkling orators who could give a bit of vision and optimism, turn this poll into a bit of, ahem, momentum. But I suspect it works at the level of 'do you really want Jeremy and Diane in charge on the 9th'? It was a ridiculous question 2 weeks ago, but this gives the question credibility.

 

[Kaka Tim]

latest you gov poll -


CON 42
LAB 38
LD 9
UKIP 4



But the poll in the gaurdian has the tories still 12 pts ahead - but with labour gaining. It uses different methodology that boosts the tory vote share more than others.
Polls are being distorted by differtnt factor - like higher than usual numbers of young people saying they will vote - and overwhelmingly vote labour. Also vote shares in scotland - tory vote is going up there, whilst labour is not - meaning the gap could be tighter in the rest of the UK.

fuck knows. exciting. nerve racking. Im still going with - a labour vote share of over 35% and denying the tories a landslide will be a good result - and anything else is a bonus.

but part of me cant help thinking .... surely not .... no ..... could the vermin actually .... lose?

 

[Fez909]

This is going to be so disappointing for Vermin-haters on election day. But it's nice to see them squirm in the meantime.

 

[DotCommunist]

false dawn imo

 

[Dogsauce]

Hopefully it'll make them a bit panicked and clumsy, May will look even more knackered, behind closed doors lots of shouting and finger pointing. Realistically they'll just ramp up the fear factor / negative ads even more, get the papers on the case, get the vote out.

I'm too used to being disappointed. I'd love that 1997 feeling again, boozed up and shrieking with a room full of mates, Portillo out on his arse and so on. Most likely to sleep through it this time, wake up with grinning Tories on the telly

 

[Raheem]

false dawn imo

Perhaps it's not possible to recognise a false dawn while it's happening.

 

[Wilf]

Labour have had an 18 month civil war, leader with appalling ratings, had no position at the time of brexit and haven't managed to carve one out since. Their leader and senior figures have done some appalling interviews in the election. It's impossible that they could be heading up a government - but then it should be equally impossible that they are (seemingly) getting so close. Even the renationalisation policies that seem to have hit the spot were out of the blue with very little groundwork done to overcome the media consensus that such things have been impossible for 30 years. I really can't see where they are getting this active support from. Younger people and those being fucked over of all ages have got great incentives to be anti-Tory - but why/how are they attaching that to voting Labour? Voting for the least bad wasn't the path people took in 2015.

The Tories have been ahead on pretty much everything that should be able to win you an election. There was great peril for them in the aftermath of brexit, but they not only got through that but somehow turned it into a positive, going off the polls till about 10 days ago. Even the dementia tax and winter fuel things were launched at the start, with a view of getting them out of the way. Massively important issues, but essentially the sort of hard medicine everybody thought we'd been persuaded to take nowadays/forever. Even if this is a false dawn - I think it is - it's all very, very

 

[redsquirrel]

Younger people and those being fucked over of all ages have got great incentives to be anti-Tory - but why/how are they attaching that to voting Labour? Voting for the least bad wasn't the path people took in 2015.

Where else would they go in England? To the yellow scum? Hardly likely after the coalition gov and broken promise on HE fees. To the Greens? Well maybe, but in addition to not having a chance anywhere bar two/three seats they're backing Labour in plenty of seats. What other options are there? Labour have managed to sew up the anti-Tory vote (at least in England), and the threat of a Tory landslide strengthened the anti-Tory vote.

 

[BigTom]

Yeah, it has to involve some kind of location analysis When the gap gets to within a few % points it really is all about where those votes are being cast

I was almost certainly included in that yougov poll, sometimes they ask for your postcode, I can't remember if they ever do in the political polling ones or if they did this time, but they certainly have my postcode and could do an exact location analysis.

 

[squirrelp]

But the poll in the gaurdian has the tories still 12 pts ahead - but with labour gaining. It uses different methodology that boosts the tory vote share more than others.

Yes, this poll is weighted to assume, in accordance with previous elections, that young people are less likely to turn up to the polling booth: the raw figures have the Tories just 3 point ahead

 

[Fez909]

ElectionForecast.co.uk

Predicting huge win for Tories. Losses for everyone else.

Chance of Tory majority 0.99
Change of Tory plurality 1.00

 

[redsquirrel]

I was almost certainly included in that yougov poll, sometimes they ask for your postcode, I can't remember if they ever do in the political polling ones or if they did this time, but they certainly have my postcode and could do an exact location analysis.

According to the BBC

It uses a new "constituency-by-constituency" model for polling, which the paper says allows for big variations.

According to the Times, "the estimates were met with scepticism by Tory and Labour figures".

YouGov's chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been tested during the EU referendum campaign, when it consistently put the winning Leave side ahead.

But he added: "It would take only a slight fall in Labour's share and a slight increase in the Conservatives' to result in Mrs May returning to No 10 with a healthy majority."

 

[kabbes]

Even after seeing the incredibly unlikely win Corbyn got within the Labour leadership election -- from basically zero no-hoper also-ran to as much as everybody else combined -- everybody still thought it impossible he could gain hard during a general election campaign.

We overweight the status quo. Nobody ever sees actual changes coming,

 

[killer b]

Younger people and those being fucked over of all ages have got great incentives to be anti-Tory - but why/how are they attaching that to voting Labour? Voting for the least bad wasn't the path people took in 2015.

Because Labour have managed to position themselves as a positive choice rather than a 'least bad' option this time round. Or rather, I think they might have managed to do both: enthuse a whole load of people as a positive choice, and now they're scooping up the least bad vote.

 

[DotCommunist]

Even after seeing the incredibly unlikely win Corbyn got within the Labour leadership election -- from basically zero no-hoper also-ran to as much as everybody else combined -- everybody still thought it impossible he could gain hard during a general election campaign.

We overweight the status quo. Nobody ever sees actual changes coming,

its a seldon crisis and el corbo is the mule?

nay. I am still calling a bad loss.

 

[bi0boy]

A big difference between YouGov and ICM then. Of course neither of them are correct but one will by chance be closer to the actual result. They will then claim they have cleverly worked out a great methodology, only to get it wrong in the next election because it's different next time.

I think people would be better off having honest conversations with doorstep canvassers from both parties than latching on to one of the polls.

 

[chilango]

Anyone else starting to get a glimmer of hope?

No....but I'm getting more tempted to stay up and watch now....

 

[killer b]

No....but I'm getting more tempted to stay up and watch now....

We're all going to be up now. There's no question.

 

[DotCommunist]

As long as can be managed anyway, gone are the days when I could manage a third or a fourth wind.

 

[brogdale]

As long as can be managed anyway, gone are the days when I could manage a third or a fourth wind.

Till Basildon?

 

[killer b]

I think it depends how things shape up. If it looks like a big Tory win, I'll be in bed by 3. Close or a Labour win, I'll struggle to go to bed at all...

 

[Dogsauce]

The mere fact that it's getting close makes May look foolish, like her judgement is flawed. Not a great look if you're trying to persuade people you're the tactical genius that can take on the task of Brexit.

 

[chilango]

The astonishment and bewilderment on Tory faces that I know is a real treat ATM.

 

[bemused]

I think it depends how things shape up. If it looks like a big Tory win, I'll be in bed by 3. Close or a Labour win, I'll struggle to go to bed at all...

The exit polls will be nice and early, if they call it for May with double digit seats time for coco and bed.

 

[JTG]

We're all going to be up now. There's no question.

I'll be at Download festival. Can see an all nighter in steward control with plenty of people interested

 

[bi0boy]

The exit polls will be nice and early, if they call it for May with double digit seats time for coco and bed.

The exit polls are usually at 10pm. Sometimes it's nice to wake up to a surprise. I went to sleep at 9:50pm on EU referendum night, woke up at 4am to pee and thought I'd check my phone so I could see the remain win and go back to sleep without thinking about it. Then I was like omgz and turned the telly on

 

[danny la rouge]

I was almost certainly included in that yougov poll, sometimes they ask for your postcode, I can't remember if they ever do in the political polling ones or if they did this time, but they certainly have my postcode and could do an exact location analysis.

I was polled by YouGov at the right time for this one. They asked my postcode and then asked a secondary question about specific candidates in my constitutency even though they'd already asked about general party voting intentions (in several ways to see if I'd crack).

 

[danny la rouge]

The astonishment and bewilderment on Tory faces that I know is a real treat ATM.

But to be fair it's all down to you skewing the poll with fake answers. I hope you're proud of yourself.

 

[Lucy Fur]

Maybe this has been the plan all along, 18 months of bitter infighting was all a smokescreen, whilst Labour busily got their manifesto together and lured the Scum into thinking they could walk an election without even trying .....yeah, I know, who am I trying to kid. We can hope for a while tho.