danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Plane takes off!
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Do you know what model they're using to get the seats? I couldn't see from the free bit on the Times website.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Aye, they must have.
Time for posters of May being ordered around by whoever the equivalent of Alex Salmond is in NI? After all, it worked against Miliband.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not yet no - sure we'll know more tmw.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
[pedant]those are weighted, but according to standard demographics (e.g. Getting the proportion of 20-25 year olds the same in sample ands population), but not including likelihood to vote[\pedant]
Also, guessing that "will not votes" are excluded. Nearly 20% are undecided. That seems like a lot - pollsters tend to allocate them based on who they voted for last time or other methods I think
Corax
Luke 5:16
One observation I've got from my current horribly white middle-class geographical demographic:
I've come across a lot of over 60s who have expressed massive affiliation with Corbyn's policies - but when pressed will never ever vote Labour because they believe that 'whenever they get into power they destroy the economy'. These beliefs include blame for the last global financial crisis. The 'global' bit of that appears to go unheard.
Those beliefs also appear to be pretty much untouchable; they're not very keen on examining the issues, as that becomes a very uncomfortable headspace to be in, and these are people that would rather avoid nasty considerations on their doorstep iykwim. They'll vote for any other party (mainly Con or LD) - but not Labour even if they agree with their policies, because they'll automatically tank the economy (whatever the fuck that means anyway).
FTR I've tried making observations about things like the deficit under Lab and Con, but it's really not to any avail with these voters. The beliefs are incredibly entrenched, and neither rhetoric, tears nor anger will shift them. I've chosen not to waste my time upsetting people for no reason.
I've come across a lot of over 60s who have expressed massive affiliation with Corbyn's policies - but when pressed will never ever vote Labour because they believe that 'whenever they get into power they destroy the economy'. These beliefs include blame for the last global financial crisis. The 'global' bit of that appears to go unheard.
Those beliefs also appear to be pretty much untouchable; they're not very keen on examining the issues, as that becomes a very uncomfortable headspace to be in, and these are people that would rather avoid nasty considerations on their doorstep iykwim. They'll vote for any other party (mainly Con or LD) - but not Labour even if they agree with their policies, because they'll automatically tank the economy (whatever the fuck that means anyway).
FTR I've tried making observations about things like the deficit under Lab and Con, but it's really not to any avail with these voters. The beliefs are incredibly entrenched, and neither rhetoric, tears nor anger will shift them. I've chosen not to waste my time upsetting people for no reason.
Last edited:
JimW
支那暗杀团
Doesn't come much stronger or more stable than thatSo confidence & supply from the DUP & Lib Dems, then?
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
What do you make of all this, BA? I have to say, I am surprised, I never thought it would get to all of this.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
But, other that pure pessimism, why?
Oh, I think it's very unlikely. And I'm not a Labour supporter but the whole thing backfiring so massively on the Tories (and on the anti-Corbynites to an extent) would, as you say, be hilarious.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
If you get too optimistic about an outcome then the outcome won't happen. It's a law of the universe or something. At least that's what I've observed of the universe. Best to expect the opposite of what you want.
This is my dad, though he's wobbling towards Labour. He's ignoring national stuff and just looking at the fact that their candidate is very local (grew up on our estate while we were living there), has good coherent leaflets and is all about soft Brexit. He's almost managing to block out the entrenched anti-Labourism. Almost.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I just can't see that many seats chasing hands. Most seats are too safe to be changed with the current poll numbers, but I can see a number of seats going blue - Clacton, some Scottish seats, etc - I can't see many gains that Labour could make.
Labour have shored up their vote so that probably helps protect them from loses but I don't see them really eating into the Tory vote or getting swing voters. Also I think some of that increase in the Lab vote is probably in safe Tory seats, if you look back at the LP leadership elections, Corbyn did well in safe Tory seats, which will be meaningless in terms to seat changes.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Apparently the model they used is the same one they used for the Brexit ref and it showed Leave ahead.
I could not have imagined in my wildest dreams the Tories losing seats and Labour gaining. (Even if it's not a Labour win, it's still significant.)
I WILL NOT DARE TO DREAM.
I could not have imagined in my wildest dreams the Tories losing seats and Labour gaining. (Even if it's not a Labour win, it's still significant.)
I WILL NOT DARE TO DREAM.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I'll try and come back to this tmw. I have a busted up hand right now and can really only do v brief posts atm.
Corax
Luke 5:16
Based on absolutely fuck all (seriously, pretty much ZERO knowledge of the voting landscape atm other than national swings) I'll be pleased with anything other than a tory landslide - because that's where (the press told me) we were heading. I saw articles pondering the significance of the UK becoming a one-party state FFS...
ETA: I'm finding myself increasingly interested in the mechanics, intricacies and impacts tbh. I've even just un-muted the only poster I had on ignore, as when he's not calling me a cunt he undoubtedly knows his shit.
ETA: I'm finding myself increasingly interested in the mechanics, intricacies and impacts tbh. I've even just un-muted the only poster I had on ignore, as when he's not calling me a cunt he undoubtedly knows his shit.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Sorry to hear that, hope it heals sharpish.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Ouch, hope it's not too serious.
Corax
Luke 5:16
*heels*
Similar threads
