Political polling

[JTG]

turnout was 84.6% in the scottish referendum. It's possible for it to be that high if people really think the stakes are big enough.

I suspect it will end up a bit lower because of the constituencies where it's perceived as making little difference, but there's so much churn going on in the electorate this time around and so many new voters on the register that I couldn't say that even seats with pretty high majorities are definitely safe - the Lib Dems showed what is possible in Richmond Park albeit at a byelection.

Lib Dems lost Bristol West two years ago, Labour turning an 11,000 vote deficit into a 5,500 majority over the Greens. Huge turnarounds can happen, especially when there's a large number of young, motivated, new voters with a grudge in the constituency

 

[free spirit]

I'm sorry but it is totally fantasy land. The fact that it hasn't happened for 60+ years doesn't mean that it can't happen in 2017 but it damn well supports the idea that it is exceptionally unlikely. A turnout of 70+%, not unrealistic, but 80+% no way.

happened in scotland in the last 5 years, and there are now far more people on the electoral roll than there have been for a long time there and in the rest of the country.

So in comparison, Survation asked the same question a week before the 2015 election and the 10/10 figure for 18-34 age range was 33.6%, for Lab as a whole it was 62.2%, and for people who'd not voted the time before it was 22.7% vs 48.5% now.

So it's not like people were lying last time and just didn't bother to turn up after saying they would. This time the figure for under 24s is a full 48% higher than it was in 2015, the figure for labour votes definitely intending to vote is nearly 30% higher.

These are not small differences, and if half the people who didn't vote last time do actually vote this time as they've indicated they definitely intend to, then this would push the turnout over 80%.

These figures are reasonably consistent with other polls as well.

I hope it doesn't go over 80% though, because I think Labours best hope now is for a chunk of the tory vote to balk at the prospect of actually voting for this shambles when it comes down to it, and sitting on their hands instead. That could be previous remain supporting tories or UKIP voters previously from a labour background, hopefully both. Hopefully the tories lack of membership will also prove crucial on the day in terms of not being able to mobilise the vote in anything like the numbers Labour can with 5 times as many members.

 

[free spirit]

Lib Dems lost Bristol West two years ago, Labour turning an 11,000 vote deficit into a 5,500 majority over the Greens. Huge turnarounds can happen, especially when there's a large number of young, motivated, new voters with a grudge in the constituency

yep.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

This may be of some interest:


I've just finished the author's joint work The New Politics of Class: The political exclusion of the British working class - very useful and full of classic old school sociological class analysis rather than the wafty crap from mike savage and the like.

I've just started Savage's book on social class, haven't come across much waft yet

This looks excellent however, if a bit pricey in hardback.

 

[butchersapron]

Hang on and I'll upload a copy.

edited to sort link.

Here

 

[butchersapron]

Not sure if that worked, posting on phone. Will do better link later when home if needed.

 

[alsoknownas]

Not sure if that worked, posting on phone. Will do better link later when home if needed.

Seems to have worked .

 

[JTG]

yep.

Looked up the last few results in Bristol West actually. Had been Tory at every single election ever until 1997. That year William Waldegrave's vote only dropped by around 2,000; the Lib Dems thought they could take it but only increased their vote by around 1,000. It was Labour who leaped from third place to storm home by increasing their vote by 10,000 from five years previously. That was the student vote getting organised and motivated to turn up in a way they hadn't done before.

 

[Rimbaud]

If she cannot get an OK place in newcastle on £35K a year, then the country is fucked

It's because of the privatisation of the Student Loans Company, the interest rates they are giving her are really high now, higher than a regular bank loan, and once you get in the higher wage bracket they take a huge amount of your monthly income. On top of monthly rent and council tax, it means that unless you live with your parents or something it will still take more time than it is worth to save up for a housing deposit.

The house my sister rents is ok, and her landlord isn't the worst, but tenants do not have enough rights to make it a desirable permanent option. You could always end up having to move home against your will, which is pretty common.

 

[free spirit]

Looked up the last few results in Bristol West actually. Had been Tory at every single election ever until 1997. That year William Waldegrave's vote only dropped by around 2,000; the Lib Dems thought they could take it but only increased their vote by around 1,000. It was Labour who leaped from third place to storm home by increasing their vote by 10,000 from five years previously. That was the student vote getting organised and motivated to turn up in a way they hadn't done before.

leeds NW did exactly the same thing for the same reasons, I expect it to swing to Labour this time if the students have sorted postal votes out. If not then they'll have mostly gone home by election day which would make the constituency very different.

 

[emanymton]

Seems to have worked .

Yep, I've got it.

 

[gawkrodger]

I've just finished the author's joint work The New Politics of Class: The political exclusion of the British working class - very useful and full of classic old school sociological class analysis rather than the wafty crap from mike savage and the like.

I've just downloaded this if anyone wants a pdf copy

edit: ignore me - BA's upload is much better than mine which is split by chapters

 

[binka]

It's because of the privatisation of the Student Loans Company, the interest rates they are giving her are really high now, higher than a regular bank loan, and once you get in the higher wage bracket they take a huge amount of your monthly income. On top of monthly rent and council tax, it means that unless you live with your parents or something it will still take more time than it is worth to save up for a housing deposit.

The house my sister rents is ok, and her landlord isn't the worst, but tenants do not have enough rights to make it a desirable permanent option. You could always end up having to move home against your will, which is pretty common.

I know we don't really want to get bogged down in it but £35k a year is £2k per month take home after paye, ni and student loan. I really couldn't see it take much more than a year-18 months to save a pretty decent sized deposit from that

 

[free spirit]

I know we don't really want to get bogged down in it but £35k a year is £2k per month take home after paye, ni and student loan. I really couldn't see it take much more than a year-18 months to save a pretty decent sized deposit from that

£1000 / month rent council tax, bills
£700 / month car loan repayments, car tax, mot, maintenance, petrol
£300 / month living costs

It's the car bit on top of rent, fuel bills etc that would be the killer, assuming the car is needed for work. If they could walk to work and didn't feel the need to own a car then saving for a deposit would be possible, but as a lot of jobs pretty much require a car to get to them then I can well see that someone on £2k a month take home pay living alone could well struggle to save any money. This shouldn't be the case, but with the high costs of renting houses it's easy to see how even that salary level can mean only just making ends meet still and the student loan repayment is basically taking the chunk that would have been available to save towards a deposit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I know we don't really want to get bogged down in it but £35k a year is £2k per month take home after paye, ni and student loan. I really couldn't see it take much more than a year-18 months to save a pretty decent sized deposit from that

Really? Rent plus bills will take care of half of that. If you run a car, those costs, train fare if you're commuting that way. Food, clothes, etc.

 

[Dogsauce]

£1000 / month rent council tax, bills
£700 / month car loan repayments, car tax, mot, maintenance, petrol
£300 / month living costs

It's the car bit on top of rent, fuel bills etc that would be the killer, assuming the car is needed for work.

That sounds high, about eight and a half grand a year for a car? You could buy one outright for less. Can get something pretty tidy for about three grand, or just not bother having one. Insurance about a grand typically?

If you want a deposit & house you do have to make some sacrifices, people nearly always have. When my folks bought their first house they were eating their dinner off a second-hand refrigerator until they could afford a table. Prices are ridiculous, but at the same time expect to wind in a few of life's luxuries if you're getting started.

 

[free spirit]

That sounds high, about eight and a half grand a year for a car? You could buy one outright for less. Can get something pretty tidy for about three grand, or just not bother having one. Insurance about a grand typically?

Unless you just want to stand the car on the drive doing nothing then that's not £8.5 a year for the car itself. Someone driving to work every day is going to have a few hundred a month in petrol, and maintenance costs. Plus there's the interest costs on the loan to buy the car, which turns a £8k car into an £11k car. I suppose it probably could be anywhere from £500-800 a month, but it's likely to be of that sort of order, and it;s not a luxury if you have to have it to get to work because there's no public transport to where you work.

If you want a deposit & house you do have to make some sacrifices, people nearly always have. When my folks bought their first house they were eating their dinner off a second-hand refrigerator until they could afford a table. Prices are ridiculous, but at the same time expect to wind in a few of life's luxuries if you're getting started.

and now they'd not be able to have bought a house at all.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Average deposits for first time buyers have doubled in the last 10 years to 30k. I wonder what %age of those have borrowed from the bank of mum and dad. If they don't have access to that particular bank, many people can basically forget it.

 

[bi0boy]

There are plenty of decent houses in Newcastle for £90k or less, so a £4.5K deposit shouldn't be hard to come by for someone on £35k. But if you can have your student loan written off why not?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There are plenty of decent houses in Newcastle for £90k or less,

 

[bi0boy]

Do I have to crack open rightmove?

 

[brogdale]

Meanwhile some polling...

 

[bi0boy]

Meanwhile some polling...

View attachment 108000

Any similar polls from the Milliband era?

 

[brogdale]

Any similar polls from the Milliband era?

68 : 22

 

[JTG]

Meanwhile some polling...

View attachment 108000

Could be bad news in Ilford North

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Could be bad news in Ilford North

dunno how it's distributed but comparing the Corbyn to Milliband numbers, I reckon that's around 20,000 people switching Labour to Tory overall. It's not huge.

 

[Rimbaud]

I know we don't really want to get bogged down in it but £35k a year is £2k per month take home after paye, ni and student loan. I really couldn't see it take much more than a year-18 months to save a pretty decent sized deposit from that

Well I don't know her exact financial situation so I don't want to get into it too much either, but you are underestimating how fucked up the housing situation is. Typical first time buyer housing deposit was £33k as of 2015, probably significantly higher now. So that is an entire annual wage - certainly not possible in 18 months, 5-10 years is more realistic.

UK house prices: First-time buyer deposits rocket 88% in less than a decade

The average deposit paid by first-time buyers to secure a mortgage in the UK is a whopping 88% higher than in 2007 before the financial crisis tore through the economy, according to Halifax building society.

It shot up 13% in 2015 alone to reach nearly £33,000, the data shows in Halifax's annual review of the first-time buyer market. Moreover, the average house price paid by first-time buyers is rising faster than for everyone else.

E2A: I may be overestimating her wage, 35k was just a guess, but it is a fairly decent wage anyway.

 

[Dogsauce]

Average deposit paid is not the same as average required - that'll include bank of mum and dad deposits which can be huge, and as ever distorted by London prices. You'd need less than ten grand to get you started somewhere like Leeds, some areas around five grand will get you something OK.

The bigger problem where I lived was getting estate agents to offer you a chance of buying something at the affordable end of the market rather than them immediately ringing up their landlord mates and sealing the deal, some very cosy relationships (including estate properties deliberately sold under value).

 

[JTG]

dunno how it's distributed but comparing the Corbyn to Milliband numbers, I reckon that's around 20,000 people switching Labour to Tory overall. It's not huge.

No not huge. But still potentially crucial in Ilford. Bury as well

 

[bemused]

I've looked through the thread but probably can't see the wood for the trees. Why do the ICM polls seem to be the only ones giving May a double digit lead?