Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Wow! I presume that is using data from one of the times/yougov polls that gave the Tories a 5 and 7% lead - the most optimistic for Labour? But still...
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
It's interesting looking at articles in the graunid circa 2005, worrying about the possibility that the Tories would never ever get back into power.
Corax
Luke 5:16
We're a very short-sighted species in both temporal directions I think.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
The Guardian article on their latest poll is surprisingly decent on their assumptions and possible failings - Guardian/ICM poll: Tories' 12-point lead offers Labour crumbs of hope
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Human lice as they are, the libdems would still have to join in with this (avoiding hard brexit and all that).
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
You fucking know that they wouldn't do it.
Corax
Luke 5:16
They'll cling to whatever coat-tails they can, murmuring themselves to sleep at night with steadfast positions on the reintroduction of free school milk or some such bollocks.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Wow! I presume that is using data from one of the times/yougov polls that gave the Tories a 5 and 7% lead - the most optimistic for Labour? But still...
It's using a large sample of 50k, using the same model they used for the EU Ref.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Not sure quite how they could work any version of brexit to satisfy the libscum and the head bangers. the only 'principle' the LS have left is the single market and May can't offer that.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure they would, given their recent experience. And, surely, it couldn't happen (even confidence and supply couldn't happen) without some accommodation over Brexit. Would that be possible?
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
National emergency, national interest, markets are about to tank like Greece etc
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
It's using a large sample of 50k, using the same model they used for the EU Ref.
Anyone else starting to get a glimmer of hope?
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
No! Law of the universe, remember.
Yeah, it has to involve some kind of location analysis When the gap gets to within a few % points it really is all about where those votes are being castIt's using a large sample of 50k, using the same model they used for the EU Ref.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Sorry, which side is giving in there? And on what?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
But that doesn't say how they converted the share of the vote to seats, which is the pertinent point. I don't have too many issue with the polling (well not more than any other poll) but the model they use to estimate seats could be critical.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Of course this yougov/times scenario is not good for Labour, or at least the publication of it isn't. Labour were so far behind that they'd become the recipients of protest votes, people saying they approved of nationalisation and the NHS but didn't actually think Corbyn's top table were an even remotely plausible government. Anything like this poll/model takes us back into 'labour will be in hock to the snp... break up Britain... do you really want Diane Abbot as Home Secretary... Corbyn may well have planted bombs himself...'
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
God, it all just underlines how nobody's got any fucking clue how to correctly weight this stuff. The changes in engagement in the last couple of years or more are based on loads of new stuff like the uniqueness of the EU ref, the rise and fall of UKIP, successfully reaching out to younger (non-)voters that will most likely be seen in longer trends that will take some time to be fully realised, and even stuff like Bernie and Trump will have had some sort of impact.
For my own view, I think we're at the beginning of quite a significant change in all of this, and whatever we find in this election is only the start. It's exciting.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Well, the Lib Dems ran in 2010 on Keynesian economic policy prescriptions to combat the credit crunch, an end to tuition fees etc... and we know how that story ended why couldn't there just be a repeat of all of that?
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
I won't let myself.
I feel for Brenda.
With a minority Tory govt who knows, we could have another GE before the year is out.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Because their base will happily look either way on economics. Not on the issue of Brexit, though.
Corax
Luke 5:16
Don't be so callous. If Teh Markets tank then I'll lose my... my income will... my left bollock is going to... erm - someone help me out here.
Corax
Luke 5:16
Fuck that - I want pitchforks and burning torches.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
That would, of course, be preferable. Might keep Brenda more entertained, too.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
If Teh Markets tank then I'll lose my keys, my income will be used for less cocaine, and my left bollock is going to turn up in the punch bowl of a swinger's party in Stoke?
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
I'll post it back to you if you like.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Wasn't it Peter Hitchens who said polls don't exist to reflect public opinion but to sway it?
He's half right. Polls do both of those things. But I am minded that this yougov prediction is likely to shore up that Tory base to a greater extent than it is to enthuse more Labour voters to come out on June 8th.
He's half right. Polls do both of those things. But I am minded that this yougov prediction is likely to shore up that Tory base to a greater extent than it is to enthuse more Labour voters to come out on June 8th.
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