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Political polling

I'm trying to work it out too but I can't quite do a proper analysis because the crowds are hidden behind Laura Kuenssberg's tree.



Subliminal. :(
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Two things that have received little comment and may bode well for Labour, this is based on what I reckon not any empirical evidence or anything...

1) Signage. I really think that, at least here in the West Midlands both in marginal, Tory and Labour areas is a distinct lack of signs for Tory candidates whereas there are a good number of signs for Labour candidates. This was something that was pointed out by pro-Trump commentators during the US election in 2016 in respect to Clinton, they were laughed at but it really did seem to point to a lack of enthusiasm which translated into poor turnout for Clinton.

2) Sloganeering. I was amongst those who thought that Strong and stable was good, fine messaging that would serve the needs of the Tories just as well as previous similar empty slogans repeated ad nauseum had in 2015. Strong and stable though has clearly been a total failure, so much so that they have retired it. By contrast, 'for the many not the few' seems to be taking on a sort of memetic quality in a similar way to 'Take Back Control' and 'Make America Great Again'. These are slogans that talk about the people, rather than referring to elite leadership in the same way that 'I'm with her' did.
 
Oh Guardian feed saying that Corbyn is going todo the BBC thing tonight.

Good! Win win for Labour imo. If May ends up doing it then it will be a climb down, if she doesn't then she still looks very weak. Amber Rudd is also probably a worse speaker than May, what on earth were they thinking?
 
I never really understood the logic behind not doing it.

Coryn turning up carries the risk that he will fuck something up and look ridiculous on live TV, but without any corresponding risk that May might do the same.

Otoh, if he performs well or just OK, then May's failure to show up might become a voting issue. Her thing is that JC doesn't have what it takes to go face-to-face with Barnier (not that this is how the negotiations will work anyway), but she's not even willing to go face-to-face with JC.

Think the stakes are v high.
 
Anyway, talking of 'songs', I hope someone has locked Billy Bragg in his fucking mansion. One intervention from him and it's defeat dragged from the jaws of victory. :mad:
 
Anyway, talking of 'songs', I hope someone has locked Billy Bragg in his fucking mansion. One intervention from him and it's defeat dragged from the jaws of victory. :mad:
Wonder if he's still voting LD to keep the Tories out from his mansion
 
to put some stats on this, in the yougov polls there's been a 7% swing from Tory to Labour in the 50-64 age range in the last week vs no significant change in the age brackets either side. There has also been a big closing of the gap in the ABC1 democraphic from 9% to 1% vs a slight swing the other way in the C2DE demographic.

Not conclusive, but those are the demographics that I'd be expecting to see that sort of change in as Corbyn's popularity with the under 25s and students in particular (and the associated policies) filtered back through to their parents.
 
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