emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
I think there is too much of an expectation for others to do it form them, rather than doing it for themselves. If that makes sense.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
I think refusing was the right thing to do three weeks ago - it would have looked like a parade of losers. Stepping in now, at the last minute with the wind in his sails is a power move though. The circumstances have changed considerably since the debate was announced.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Have there been any projections of the Scottish vote specifically?
Thinking about this: do you remember a month ago, when people were talking seriously about a complete Labour electoral collapse and the Lib Dems riding a 48%er wave to become the main party of opposition?
A month.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Makes just over a week seem like a very long time indeed.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
it's clearly not the same as taking the decision to go on strike, but then it's also more commitment than is needed to go out to vote.
Did I mention that it started raining and nobody left even though corbyn hadn't arrived yet and nobody knew if he'd even be speaking to those outside or not.
In social media terms as well Labour are wiping the floor with the tories, with nearly 2 million interactions this week on the main labour / corbyn supporting pages vs 350k between the conservatives and theresa May's pages.
I'm struggling to work out how many different people that will be hitting, but if the ratio were anything like a Green Party page I admin it would be around 55 million post views a week, fuck knows how that translates into the number of different people being reached, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't more than 10 million different people a week. That's one hell of a platform to directly reach a big chunk of people in a way that bypasses and counters the media, which IMO is a significant part of why they're doing so much better with the age ranges that use social media the most and so badly with the older generation who use it the least and rely on the daily mail etc far more for their view of things.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
Yougov's election centre where they're doing the seat projections has been launched here
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Unsurprisingly, Mole Valley is still a safe Conservative, with the same 60%-ish it always gets. Labour, however, only got 8% in the last election and are now being predicted 16%. That's mostly at the expense of UKIP, who have disintegrated here as much as everywhere else.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Sheffield Hallam too! Oh god that would be goodExcellent.
It has Reading East as a "toss up" and Bristol NW as likely Labour.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
TBH that made me doubt the validity of the polling method more than it does enthuse me about the possibility of them losing Hallam.
Cid
Proper break this time
I still think this is pretty unlikely, given that in the great lib dem slump he still managed 4% over labour... Still... I suppose there's a possibility of a swing among the student demmers. The Conservative vote there is weak, so there's not much need to vote strategically.
But yeah, really more makes me echo J Ed above.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Poll Taker - And how will you be voting in the general election sir?
- Libdem
Poll Taker - Try again
- But I'll be voting Libdem!
Poll Taker - Look, I'm not fucking putting that down
- But, but...
Poll Taker - Oh, just fuck off, you miserable, pissyellow, whiney shitbasket
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I think the model probably suffers from the averaging affect, so say the greens are putting fuckloads of effort into bristol west, but it has us trailing behind in 4th place. We've basically focussed all significant campaigning effort on 5 seats, but the model is based on the average across all similar seats so will probably end up about right as an average, but not on a seat by seat basis.
The lib dem situation will be a bit similar, though they may have enough lib dem / lab marginals that they're fighting in all of that the average won't be too far off.
I know locally that the lib dem MP (Leeds NW) is starting to panic a bit, and Labour are getting more confident. I'm fairly sure Labour have got more boots on the ground.
1%er
Well-Known Member
I was listening to a retired polling executive on the radio recently and he was asked why recent polls appear to be wrong in UK, US and the recent EU referendum. He claimed (and it seem reasonable) that while most people tell the truth about who they would vote for, they lie about if they will actually vote.
The only figures I remember with any certainty were for the last 4 UK general elections, he said the figures show that turn-out was around 63% (an average of the 4 elections iirc), but the percentage of people involved in the polls who claimed they would actually vote was 92% (seem high).
When asked how they can get any sort of "real data" with sure a big difference in those numbers, he said the different polling companies have different models they use to adjust for the difference.
Anecdotal; If I listen to UK radio I tend to listen to LBC and during the 2015 election it seems most callers said they would vote Tory but over the last week or so most appear to be saying they will vote Labour. I tend to listen between lunchtime and until around 7pm UK time, not sure if that means a different demographic are calling.
The only figures I remember with any certainty were for the last 4 UK general elections, he said the figures show that turn-out was around 63% (an average of the 4 elections iirc), but the percentage of people involved in the polls who claimed they would actually vote was 92% (seem high).
When asked how they can get any sort of "real data" with sure a big difference in those numbers, he said the different polling companies have different models they use to adjust for the difference.
Anecdotal; If I listen to UK radio I tend to listen to LBC and during the 2015 election it seems most callers said they would vote Tory but over the last week or so most appear to be saying they will vote Labour. I tend to listen between lunchtime and until around 7pm UK time, not sure if that means a different demographic are calling.
ISTM that in Brexit and the last US and last U.K. elections, polling companies have predicted the % result to within the stated error quite reasonably. The problem for Brexit was that there is such a cliff-edge difference between 48/52 and 52/48 and for the US and UK it comes down to the difficulty of converting % into FPTP results.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
But they would have been talking bollocks.
Wait, Keith Allen has a nightclub in Stroud?!
of course. but the labour collapse at least didn't seem that unlikely.
GTFIExcellent.
It has Reading East as a "toss up" and Bristol NW as likely Labour.
All four parliamentary seats, the council and the mayor. The only time I enjoy the red team winning in Bristol
Fingers crossed
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
I think the extant of any possible collapse was vastly overstated. But yes, I don't think anyone thought they would be doing this well.
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
They've described Barrow as a toss up. Think they mean toss stain.
bi0boy
Power User
The problem in 2015 is that every single pollster understated the Tory vote share, which they've pretty much always done since the 70s:
General Election: 7 May 2015
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
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