Political polling

[free spirit]

ah beaten to the chase there by jtg

 

[JTG]

ah beaten to the chase there by jtg

You're looking properly mind, I'm just nicking mine off the Britain Elects twitter

 

[JTG]

Public preference for Prime Minister:
T. May: 43% (-2)
J. Corbyn: 30% (+2)

Public expectation of result:
Con majority: 62%
Hung, Con ahead: 7%
Hung, Lab ahead: 5%
Lab majority: 7%

 

[redsquirrel]

This is interesting:



Remainers almost completely uninterested in the Liberal Democrats

Ha Ha,

BTW killer b if the Captain Ska isn't up your ally you could try one of these. If you don't watch the video the Conservative Friends of India one isn't that bad.

 

[Dogsauce]

That 'expectation' could be handy in persuading Tory voters not to make the effort. Kind of hope it stays high. Maybe the YouTube crap will frighten them into turning out. (Got to be said, what sort of demographic do they think uses YouTube?)

 

[Dogsauce]

This is interesting:



Remainers almost completely uninterested in the Liberal Democrats

That tallies with my Facebook 'bubble' - just about all the loudest remoaners are actively supporting Labour. I'm guessing they see it as Labour's soft Brexit vs May's swivel-eyed Brexit.

 

[JTG]

That 'expectation' could be handy in persuading Tory voters not to make the effort. Kind of hope it stays high. Maybe the YouTube crap will frighten them into turning out. (Got to be said, what sort of demographic do they think uses YouTube?)

Also Labour voters not happy with JC but who want to keep the Tory majority down etc.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Look at Matthew Goodwin's twitter. He reckons Corbyn can do it. Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) on Twitter

Everything I can see on his feed suggests the other, tbh.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Of particular note, he mentions yougov's model predicted Hillary would win Michigan, Wisconsin, and a couple of others she lost.

He also has a run-down of different models and their prediction of seats, all of which except for yougov have the Tories with a ~100 majority.

I see no reason to believe they'll all be wrong and the one outlier will be correct. As much as I wish it was so.

 

[redsquirrel]

Of particular note, he mentions yougov's model predicted Hillary would win Michigan, Wisconsin, and a couple of others she lost.

He also has a run-down of different models and their prediction of seats, all of which except for yougov have the Tories with a ~100 majority.

I see no reason to believe they'll all be wrong and the one outlier will be correct. As much as I wish it was so.

I have the same suspicion that he and Eaton mention - that Labour are gaining votes in safe Labour and safe Tory seats, which won't help them in terms of seats.

 

[JTG]

I have the same suspicion that he and Eaton mention - that Labour are gaining votes in safe Labour and safe Tory seats, which won't help them in terms of seats.

Dunno. Think it may be mixed tbh. Can certainly see them winning here (Bristol NW), 4,000-odd Tory majority. Dubious about some other places mind, even the outer Bristol suburbs are somewhat different to, say, Nuneaton or Thurrock

 

[NoXion]

This is interesting:



Remainers almost completely uninterested in the Liberal Democrats

Would seem to support my suspicion that Remoaners are a vocal minority of the Remainers as a whole.

 

[Plumdaff]

Would Tory voters want to sully their garden or their window with an ugly sign, though? Tories are hardly activists, and signs are a bit activist, aren't they?

I saw a few in the posher ends of my semi marginal constituency in 2015. I haven't seen a single one this time round.

 

[free spirit]

I have the same suspicion that he and Eaton mention - that Labour are gaining votes in safe Labour and safe Tory seats, which won't help them in terms of seats.

I forget which poll it was, but one of the recent ones analised the marginals and showed Labour ahead in the Lab Tory marginals when all responses were included, only falling behind slightly when the weighting was applied.

And they're now ahead in 3 out of the 5 regions YouGov uses, vs the Tory's 1 plus scotland (which is useless because the SNP are wiping them both out up there).

IME Labour are fighting hard to win the marginals not just securing their base - eg in Leeds Richard Burgon seems to be spending as much time in the other marginal constituencies as he is in his own, with Labour fighting to win one from the lib dems, and another from the Tories.

I get the sense that the Labour activist base are really seeing that the tide is going their way and jumping in to support it where it counts, while the Tories are struggling to mobilise anyone to do anything much.

 

[Dogsauce]

Dunno. Think it may be mixed tbh. Can certainly see them winning here (Bristol NW), 4,000-odd Tory majority. Dubious about some other places mind, even the outer Bristol suburbs are somewhat different to, say, Nuneaton or Thurrock

A lot of us posting here are in cities, deep in Corbyn fanaticism. I've no idea how it looks in Essex, Northamptonshire, leafier bits of the West Midlands. It might look nothing like the picture we're seeing.

At the same time Labour doesn't have to push to many seats over to remove the existing Tory majority, although that might be balanced out by Tory gains in Scotland.

 

[redsquirrel]

BTW did anyone post the latest Ipsos Mori Scottish poll?
SNP 43%
CON 25%
LAB 25%
LDEM 5%

So Labour gaining in Scotland too, which doesn't help them in terms of seats but could help the SNP.

Also an interesting SurveyMonkey poll
CON 44%
LAB 38%
LDEM 6%
UKIP 4%

Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then).

So take it with a pinch of salt, but worth bearing in mind for doing something different.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

analised

Analysed.

 

[DotCommunist]

If Labour go over 40% will Hilary Benn and the rest do the decent thing with the brandy and service revolver?

nobody does things with honour anymore. They'll start scheming on how to fuck corbyn and thinking the opportunities that power gives for this

 

[Crispy]

ISTM that in Brexit and the last US and last U.K. elections, polling companies have predicted the % result to within the stated error quite reasonably. The problem for Brexit was that there is such a cliff-edge difference between 48/52 and 52/48 and for the US and UK it comes down to the difficulty of converting % into FPTP results.

The reasoning follows that polling for elections with proportional representation would be more accurate....

 

[free spirit]

I need your help!

Title of latest email from the local Lib Dem MP.

Electoral Calculus putting us ahead

Title of latest email from local Labour challenger, along with a long list of campaigning slots to join in with.

Even at the last election the lib dems here had an air of confidence about them. This time they're starting exude and air of creeping panic.

 

[treelover]

I saw a few in the posher ends of my semi marginal constituency in 2015. I haven't seen a single one this time round.

Lots in farmers fields on the periphery of the Peak District.

 

[free spirit]

Analysed.

ay that too.

 

[Raheem]

Lots in farmers fields on the periphery of the Peak District.

Not you as well. Put the crossword down and concentrate.

 

[JTG]

I forget which poll it was, but one of the recent ones analised the marginals and showed Labour ahead in the Lab Tory marginals when all responses were included, only falling behind slightly when the weighting was applied.

And they're now ahead in 3 out of the 5 regions YouGov uses, vs the Tory's 1 plus scotland (which is useless because the SNP are wiping them both out up there).

IME Labour are fighting hard to win the marginals not just securing their base - eg in Leeds Richard Burgon seems to be spending as much time in the other marginal constituencies as he is in his own, with Labour fighting to win one from the lib dems, and another from the Tories.

I get the sense that the Labour activist base are really seeing that the tide is going their way and jumping in to support it where it counts, while the Tories are struggling to mobilise anyone to do anything much.

Back you up on the marginals: three excellent Labour leaflets here, emails from the campaign (they have me on their list as a supporter cos of my old union membership) suggest they aren't having any trouble getting their leaflets delivered and door knocking sessions are well supported it would seem. Tory stuff has been limited to personally addressed stuff ie not delivered by volunteers.

Honestly believe Labour will win here

 

[Nylock]

Big fuck-off tory sign outside a big fuck off house locally (i think it's the local candidate's gaff though)...

 

[free spirit]

Back you up on the marginals: three excellent Labour leaflets here, emails from the campaign (they have me on their list as a supporter cos of my old union membership) suggest they aren't having any trouble getting their leaflets delivered and door knocking sessions are well supported it would seem. Tory stuff has been limited to personally addressed stuff ie not delivered by volunteers.

Honestly believe Labour will win here

We've got a green contingent heading up to leaflet the marginal that we've pulled out of at the weekend. Thought we should do our bit.

 

[JTG]

Back you up on the marginals: three excellent Labour leaflets here, emails from the campaign (they have me on their list as a supporter cos of my old union membership) suggest they aren't having any trouble getting their leaflets delivered and door knocking sessions are well supported it would seem. Tory stuff has been limited to personally addressed stuff ie not delivered by volunteers.

Honestly believe Labour will win here

Oh, also we never get leaflets here. Maybe one Labour. My patch right on the edge of the constituency, not many houses compared to main estate up the road and probs one of the more Tory bits of Henbury. In other words, not worth the effort unless you have the resources to get round every single street.
Our local Tory councillor is standing in safe Labour Bristol South so not sure he's doing much door knocking on his own patch - he seems popular so that may cost Leslie as well.

 

[Nylock]

I've lived in this part of town for 7 years and not once have I been doorstepped by canvassers or candidates of any party.... If the local Tory one turns up I will view that as a sign of palpable terror from them.

 

[Balbi]

The reasoning follows that polling for elections with proportional representation would be more accurate....

Sort of, yeah

Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2014 - Wikipedia

 

[Vintage Paw]

I've lived in this part of town for 7 years and not once have I been doorstepped by canvassers or candidates of any party.... If the local Tory one turns up I will view that as a sign of palpable terror from them.

David Prescott turned up on my doorstep in Feb. But then, we had everybody and their dog wandering the streets.