But what if Johnson fails to deliver on his solemn pledge to take Britain out of the EU by 31 October?
He could call a second referendum, but there is a fair chance that the country would vote to reverse the result of the first – especially if the fractured opposition can come together. Almost every opinion poll over the last two years has put Remain ahead. Pro-Remain parties matched the Leave parties in the European elections, though the Brexit Party’s performance stole the headlines. More than a million Remainers paraded through London in March – the biggest demonstration the capital has ever seen, and six million signed a petition demanding an end to Brexit.
More likely, Johnson would call a general election. He would hope to gain a workable majority in parliament by campaigning to “keep a Marxist out of Downing Street”. But with the electorate now split four ways, and the Lib Dems vying to supplant Labour as the main oppostion party, that option would also be fraught with risk – and the very real danger of him becoming the shortest-serving prime minister since George Canning, who lasted a mere 119 days before dying in office in 1827.
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The first problem would be that the Tories, having failed to deliver Brexit by Halloween, would probably lose seats to Farage’s party even if they adopted an uncompromising no-deal platform: an analysis of the latest polls by the Electoral Calculus website suggests Labour would win 256 seats, the Conservatives 196 and the Brexit Party 66.
Though he denies it now, Johnson could conceivably seek a formal or informal electoral pact with Farage, perhaps offering him the job of foreign secretary or chancellor. Indeed Trump might well press Johnson to do such a deal with his friend. But it would be a pact with the devil that would drive out the party’s last moderate MPs, and alienate any centrist voters still minded to support the Conservatives.
The second problem is that Johnson is no longer the “Heineken candidate” who can reach parts of the electorate that other Conservative politicians cannot. The sobriquet was based on the fact that he won two mayoral elections in Labour-leaning London, but those victories should be seen in context.
In the first, in 2008, he beat an incumbent, Ken Livingstone, who had been in office eight years, and at a time when Gordon Brown’s Labour government was deeply unpopular. He did so with the gushing support of London’s Evening Standard, and after his shambolic campaign was rescued by Lynton Crosby, the Australian political strategist. Crosby kept him on the tightest leash, and focused on suburban Tories who had not previously voted in mayoral elections.
Thereafter Johnson could scarcely go wrong. He inherited a dynamic and growing capital. From 2010 the new Conservative government of David Cameron and George Osborne pumped money into London ahead of the 2012 Olympics, so his re-election was no great surprise. He then had the Olympics – a gift for any incumbent.
Since leaving City Hall Johnson has been forced to make the first really hard political choice of his career – to campaign for Leave in 2016. It was a decision that cost him dearly in London, his Remain-supporting power base, and in 2017 he saw his majority in his own constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, cut in half.
It was also a decision that has arguably turned Johnson into Britain’s most divisive politician.
A recent YouGov poll showed that 28 per cent of respondents thought he would make a good prime minister but 54 per cent a bad one – both figures exceeded those of any other Tory politician. A remarkable 59 per cent said they would not buy a used car from him.
Other questions arise. If Johnson is really such a great campaigner why did his handlers go to such lengths to protect him from scrutiny during the leadership election? And why did they manipulate the voting process so that he faced Jeremy Hunt, not the far more formidable Gove, in the run-off?
We are about to see what Johnson is really made of. Is there any substance behind all that bluster? How will he cope under the relentless pressure and exposure that goes with being prime minister? Does he have the guts to stand up to Trump, or will he kowtow to him in a desperate quest for a US-UK trade deal to offset our putative exit from the EU’s single market? Will he finally show the application and mastery of detail required of a serious politician, or will he continue to wing it?
The Conservatives have sold their collective soul because they see Johnson as the man who can restore their electoral fortunes through the sheer force of his exuberant personality, but they may have underestimated just how toxic his – and their – brand has become. They may not have realised how irretrievably they have lost the centrist vote through their pandering to the ideological right, and through their manifest disdain for the 48 per cent that voted Remain. Indeed, some wiser Tories privately admit that in choosing Johnson they have taken an enormous gamble that could well destroy their party. The rest of us can only hope that it does not destroy the country in the process.