Nicola Sturgeon's time is up

[JimW]

So what's left?

Events. Pretty bold to think a UK state with a track record of annoying the constituent nations won't do something in the coming years to spark independence sentiment again.

 

[kebabking]

'Never' is just ridiculous talk - Forever is the Romans, or Northumbria, or the Tudors, or the Tsars, or the Brythonic kingdoms & cultures Vs the AS ones.

I would say that I now think a Scottish independence is less likely in the next 15 years than I thought it 18 months ago - but never is a long time.

Continents move, civilisations disappear, political systems end. I have no doubt that at some point what is now Scotland won't be part of the same polity as what is now England, but whether that will be in 2070 with hovercars and tinfoil suits, or in 2590 with the North-East Atlantic archipelago a barren, post-apololyptic wasteland I've no idea...

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's really not cool that the FM was recorded without her consent being sought, then that recording was leaked. Data protection violation right there.

I guess this is one of those cases where the 'public interest' defence would apply.

See, that's true - but if it was Johnson, or Sunak or some creature from Britain First, is there anyone who wouldn't say 'meh, politics is a rough old game...'?

Either the rules apply or they don't.

Aye, I am relaxed about elected representatives being recorded in circumstances like this.

 

[A380]

… a barren, post-apololyptic wasteland I've no idea...

Insert ‘not been to West Lothian gag here’…

 

[hitmouse]

As with the Brexit vote, it increasingly looks as though the Scottish Independence referendum was a "sliding doors" moment never to be returned to, a one-off moment slipped through the fingers.

If I was looking for a comparison to illustrate "a failed independence campaign that ended up staying within a larger political union", I don't think the Brexit vote would be the first comparison I'd go for.

Events. Pretty bold to think a UK state with a track record of annoying the constituent nations won't do something in the coming years to spark independence sentiment again.

That's the thing, I can't see how anyone could look at the last, oh, decade or so, and go "this is a very stable and predictable place, I feel confident in assuming that nothing unexpected will happen that might change things in a significant way".

 

[gosub]

If I was looking for a comparison to illustrate "a failed independence campaign that ended up staying within a larger political union", I don't think the Brexit vote would be the first comparison I'd go for.

That's the thing, I can't see how anyone could look at the last, oh, decade or so, and go "this is a very stable and predictable place, I feel confident in assuming that nothing unexpected will happen that might change things in a significant way".

How can you say that? We avoided Ed Milliband

 

[danny la rouge]

Not living there doesn't matter a jot.

Sliding doors moments happen in politics all the time: PR voting systems under Blair, Brexit under Cameron, the Scottish Independence referendum. These things happen.

At the moment, the SNP is in disarray, Alba is held together by Alex Salmond of all people and all baggage, and Labour is on the offensive (see the groundwork being done for the potential Hamilton by-election.)

Opinion polls have shown the Yes vote tanking month by month. Cost of living is far more significant than Independence.

You won't get another referendum under Sunak, we all know that.
You won't get another referendum under Starmer, we all know that.

So what's left?

You’re focussing on the wrong things.

Yes, the SNP is holed below the water line, but support for Independence and support for the SNP have not always neatly aligned. It is possible that some who drift away to Labour retain support for independence. This then becomes a problem for Labour.

Furthermore, whenever polls have looked at independence support in age groups, younger groups have shown the highest support for independence, older groups the lowest. And another change is that women used to be more cautious on independence but there is now more gender parity. One poll recently put independence support ahead of SNP support. It used to be the other way around. The demographics suggest it is possible that independence support peels away from the SNP. (Not to the Alba Party. No idea why you mention them, they’re an utter irrelevance. They have no MSPs and the only Westminster MPs they have were defections who will lose their seats at the next election).

The SNP has been the de facto leadership of the independence movement, but since the 2014 referendum dropped that ball. It has not made the independence case, focussing instead on being the government. Nobody (credible) picked up the ball. That could now change. One thing that Kenny McAskill is right about (much as it pains me to say) is that an independence convention (like the devolution convention of the 90s) could take things forward. Of course there is not the sweep of civil society institutions (NGOs, trades unions, church groups) in favour of independence that there were supporting devolution. But peeling independence support from the SNP could change that.

And of course referendums are not the only way to go. For example, for decades the SNP policy was that if it won a general election that would be taken as a mandate for them to begin negotiating independence. While Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher (not believing it would happen) expressly supported that view.

The growing perception (actually incorrect in my view, but never mind that, it’s a perception none the less) in Scotland, even among non supporters of independence, is that Scottish political culture has diverged from that of England. Not just the Brexit vote, but things like Boris Johnson being voted Prime Minister. I had conversations with many people who had voted No in 2014 who maybe hadn’t quite travelled to Yes, but who saw Boris Johnson as a weather vane of the different political cultures. I was speaking to a No voter on Saturday who remains a No voter but who sees Suella Braverman in the same light. As I say, I think that’s a simplistic reading, but it’s a widespread one. And while it takes root, the genie of independence remains out of the bottle.

After the ‘79 Devolution referendum, devolution seemed it would “never” come. The ‘97 yes vote proved that wrong. 18 years is a long time in politics. Never is even longer.

 

[gosub]

'Never' is just ridiculous talk - Forever is the Romans, or Northumbria, or the Tudors, or the Tsars, or the Brythonic kingdoms & cultures Vs the AS ones.

I would say that I now think a Scottish independence is less likely in the next 15 years than I thought it 18 months ago - but never is a long time.

Continents move, civilisations disappear, political systems end. I have no doubt that at some point what is now Scotland won't be part of the same polity as what is now England, but whether that will be in 2070 with hovercars and tinfoil suits, or in 2590 with the North-East Atlantic archipelago a barren, post-apololyptic wasteland I've no idea...

They've put hovercars and tin foil suits back til 2070 now? Always with the delays and always with the decent stuff , could probably call the North East a barren post apocalyptic wasteland early

 

[cupid_stunt]

Breaking news - SNP treasurer Colin Beattie has been arrested.

Arrested SNP treasurer Colin Beattie released without charge amid party's emergency talks

The arrest came after Peter Murrell, the SNP's former chief executive and Nicola Sturgeon's husband, was detained by police earlier this month.

news.sky.com

 

[danny la rouge]

Breaking news - SNP treasurer Colin Beattie has been arrested.

Arrested SNP treasurer Colin Beattie released without charge amid party's emergency talks

The arrest came after Peter Murrell, the SNP's former chief executive and Nicola Sturgeon's husband, was detained by police earlier this month.

news.sky.com

I was wondering when that would happen.

 

[JimW]

Did a candelabra and some paste jewelry fall out his overcoat as his collar got felt?

 

[MickiQ]

Continents move

The current government is pretty much relying on this one as the only realistic way to stop people coming across the channel in boats.

 

[quimcunx]

It's not that I'm a massive fan of the SNP or anything but I think as uk political parties go, or at least how well sturgeon comes across, they felt a bit more trustworthy, competent and respectable. It makes all this quite gutting. Also makes me wonder how various Tory ministers and ex ministers manage not to spend half their time in handcuffs, especially since covid.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's not that I'm a massive fan of the SNP or anything but I think as uk political parties go, or at least how well sturgeon comes across, they felt a bit more trustworthy, competent and respectable. It makes all this quite gutting. Also makes me wonder how various Tory ministers and ex ministers manage not to spend half their time in handcuffs, especially since covid.

I do rather suspect that the SNP hasn’t done anything other parties don’t do: raise money ostensibly for one thing but spend it on another.

 

[steeplejack]

Dear Lord. The SNP is like one of those old Victorian chimneys just waiting for Fred Dibnah to come along and demolish.

It's all over, really, for them.

 

[danny la rouge]

Dear Lord. The SNP is like one of those old Victorian chimneys just waiting for Fred Dibnah to come along and demolish.

It's all over, really, for them.

The initial Fred Dibnah in this scenario is whoever raised the complaint to the polis. But since then other Fred Dibnahs have been joining in by leaking videos of NEC meetings. Pretty soon it’ll be a whole party of Fred Dibnahs blowing up shit and running from the rubble.

 

[Fuzzy]

I didn't realise Phil from eastenders had a role in the SNP.

 

[steeplejack]

The initial Fred Dibnah in this scenario is whoever raised the complaint to the polis. But since then other Fred Dibnahs have been joining in by leaking videos of NEC meetings. Pretty soon it’ll be a whole party of Fred Dibnahs blowing up shit and running from the rubble.

who will benefit though? anyone?

can see there being a swing towards Labour of sorts at the next Westminster but nothing decisive really- more like the election of 2017.

There's such an anti-politician mood about now but there's no sense that this mess will break for anyone in particular

 

[danny la rouge]

who will benefit though? anyone?

No.

But you have to wonder if certain tin-foilers attached to the Alba Party or Wings think it is in their interests, or even just as retribution for Salmond’s reputation.

 

[bluescreen]

The initial Fred Dibnah in this scenario is whoever raised the complaint to the polis. But since then other Fred Dibnahs have been joining in by leaking videos of NEC meetings. Pretty soon it’ll be a whole party of Fred Dibnahs blowing up shit and running from the rubble.

Do you think he shouldn't have?
I must say that the answer to cui bono? is enough to make one don a tinfoil hat.

 

[steeplejack]

No.

But you have to wonder if certain tin-foilers attached to the Alba Party or Wings think it is in their interests, or even just as retribution for Salmond’s reputation.

may as well ask the chairman of the Model Railway Society (Scotland) for their view, just as relevant as anything those moonhowlers have to say.

 

[JimW]

may as well ask the chairman of the Model Railway Society (Scotland) for their view, just as relevant as anything those moonhowlers have to say.

Gauge his opinion, so to speak?

 

[danny la rouge]

Do you think he shouldn't have?
I must say that the answer to cui bono? is enough to make one don a tinfoil hat.

Do I think the person who raised the initial complaint shouldn’t have? No, I don’t. If money was raised for a referendum campaign, that’s what it should have been used for.

Do I think the NEC filmer shouldn’t have leaked the film? Well, that’s slightly different. Why were they filming? What did they think the leaking of it at this point would achieve? Sure, the press ran it. I don’t have a problem with that. But what did they (presumably an NEC member at the time) have in mind?

The reaction of the police and the reporting of this does contrast with say Henry McLeish’s “Officegate” scandal. A whole political party is being torpedoed here. I’m not saying they don’t deserve it, I’m just noting the contrasts.

 

[danny la rouge]

may as well ask the chairman of the Model Railway Society (Scotland) for their view, just as relevant as anything those moonhowlers have to say.

I’m suggesting a possibility that the initial complaint may have come from those quarters.

 

[JimW]

There's no point spending centuries building an Establishment if you can't bring it to bear now and again.

 

[danny la rouge]

There's no point spending centuries building an Establishment if you can't bring it to bear now and again.

Well, indeed.

 

[steeplejack]

Beyond the who-leaked-what-to-whom-and-why questions, we're about to really find out if the "independence movement is much more than the SNP" line has any substance.

Unfortunately I fear it may degenerate into a squabbling archipelago of rocky micro-groupings in the next few years once the SNP's collapse has worked through.

 

[Serge Forward]

Gauge his opinion, so to speak?

That'd send the SNP even more off the rails.

 

[bluescreen]

That'd send the SNP even more off the rails.

Can we endeavour to keep this discussion on track, please?

 

[JimW]

Can we endeavour to keep this discussion on track, please?

It was a model example before these puns, in a small way.