My tactical voting dilemma - and yours if you have one

[AnnO'Neemus]

Mines definitely a three dog fight with reform at 25% and the tory and labour at 30 ish, I think reform are seriously underestimated and more likely to win than the polling predicts sadly.

I was talking to someone from the Isle of Wight over the weekend, formerly one constituency, newly split into two. Bob Seeley is the sort-of incumbent on one side of the island, the other is up for grabs. The person I was talking to was worried about Reform. She showed me her phone, there was a local Facebook group, with quite a lot of comments from people (or bots) with Reform logo for a profile pic, saying that they were voting for Reform.

How many of those social media posts are real and how many are part of a social media campaign aiming to persuade undecided voters that Reform stand a chance of winning and encourage others to vote Reform, I don't know.

Like last time, we only see our own social media bubbles and don't know how much targeted social media ads/campaign posts play a part in other people's voting behaviour (and our own tbh).

I only saw that little snippet, but it was worrying. In one sense, it would be silly to extrapolate an anecdote into anecdata, but a lot of us were taken by surprise with the outcome of the Brexit referendum.

I wonder if there's a chance of something similar happening? To date, Nigel Garage has been a grifter on the right-wing fringes of British/European politics, but now he's paired up with the almost bottomless pockets of Richard Tice, and that's a frightening combination. And they do appeal to many disadvantaged and disaffected people around the country.

 

[inva]

There isn’t a non-scum option!

If it's so crucial to get the Conservatives out that you're willing to sacrifice all dignity then is just voting in a secret shameful ballot really enough? Need to put up a winning here sign and get out there delivering dodgy bar graph leaflets

 

[Miss-Shelf]

I was talking to someone from the Isle of Wight over the weekend, formerly one constituency, newly split into two. Bob Seeley is the sort-of incumbent on one side of the island, the other is up for grabs. The person I was talking to was worried about Reform. She showed me her phone, there was a local Facebook group, with quite a lot of comments from people (or bots) with Reform logo for a profile pic, saying that they were voting for Reform.

How many of those social media posts are real and how many are part of a social media campaign aiming to persuade undecided voters that Reform stand a chance of winning and encourage others to vote Reform, I don't know.

Like last time, we only see our own social media bubbles and don't know how much targeted social media ads/campaign posts play a part in other people's voting behaviour (and our own tbh).

I only saw that little snippet, but it was worrying. In one sense, it would be silly to extrapolate an anecdote into anecdata, but a lot of us were taken by surprise with the outcome of the Brexit referendum.

I wonder if there's a chance of something similar happening? To date, Nigel Garage has been a grifter on the right-wing fringes of British/European politics, but now he's paired up with the almost bottomless pockets of Richard Tice, and that's a frightening combination. And they do appeal to many disadvantaged and disaffected people around the country.

I saw a novara interview of young people in Chichester saying they were voting reform. Which was a surprise.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I saw a novara interview of young people in Chichester saying they were voting reform. Which was a surprise.

Perhaps young people see voting for Reform as some kind of rebellion?

 

[MickiQ]

What is your desired objective? Get a govt you may or may not want or to get rid of one you definitely don't want. For Me it's simple, I want rid of the Tories first and are less concerned about what replaces them, it may not be better but it surely won't be worse.
I've voted Labour because they have the best chance of winning here but I would have no problems with voting LD if they were the most likely contender.
I get some people might say I'm choosing between the Devil and The Deep Blue Sea, I choose the sea since I can at least swim.

 

[Numbers]

Perhaps young people see voting for Reform as some kind of rebellion?

Mrs Numbers’ sister is voting Reform.

She is an idiot tho’.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Tory has 8k majority over Lib Dem, tory to lose seat will be Jeremy Hunt, Labour nowhere near, so has to be Lib Dem or nowt.

The Lib Dems have taken over the office next to mine, overly polite people been coming and going non-stop for the past couple of days.

This is their office:






Have a Sharpie at the ready for Friday morning in case Hunt is still an MP, will add a NOT before the winning here rubbish. The office also has no lock on the door, so will also do all their signs inside and on their windows...actually part of me wants Hunt to win, just so this can happen...

 

[mojo pixy]

I asked my son who he'd vote for, and he's actively choosing the LibDems I think there are 3 reasons...

1. He's 11 years old and literally doesn't know better
2. We've only had 4 leaflets through the door: blue, yellow, red, and the local independent**
3. We've talked about what 'tactical voting' means in general and local terms

[ ** the local independent candidate's slogan on his signs is "he's autistic and he swears but at least he f***ing cares". This wouldin principle be enough to get my cross, but sadly our system is too fucked for it to be a worthwhile vote ]

Anyway I'm still at a loss but coming round to the idea that voting LD to ditch the sitting tory is just about the only way I can salvage any shred of dignity out of Thursday.

Whatever happens I'll take the boy along with me; if Labour win and lower the voting age to 16 he'll be eligible himself next time (assuming 2029).

 

[Voley]

So in my constituency it is most likely that the party of the dog killing austerity enablers are the ones who can beat the incumbent vermin, Anne Marie Morris. She had a 17k majority last time, but this is predicted to be a lot closer now due to the events of the last few years, perhaps the margin would be as low as a few hundred votes either way. With that said, I don’t think there’s been much central party activity down here as it’s still probably low on their target list.

The other parties standing are Labour, Green, Reform, some localist anti planning and development independents, Heritage (ukip splinter) and Volt (EU reformist oddjobs). So not a lot of choice for someone on the left.

The Lib Dem candidate is a local councillor who stood in 2019. No idea what he’s like really. I don’t think I can justify blaming him personally for the 2010-2015 coalition.

The Lib Dems run the council, I feel like I am on board with some of the things they’re doing round here eg decarbonising, looking at ways to pedestrianise town centres etc, though that hasn’t been very popular cos people love their cars.

I suppose it boils down to the fact that I know I would feel a lot happier not having a Tory MP for the next few years. I don’t particularly want to vote for the Lib Dems, but suspect that’s what I’ll have to do to get rid of Morris

I have an almost identical situation to yours here in St Ives ward, Elpenor. It's not uncommon in our bit of the world, is it? I want the Tories out so badly I've tactically voted LibDem. Our current Tory is a creationist, anti-gay, pro-foxhunting cunt of the first order and as incompetent as he is fucking evil.

The LibDem guy is my least worst option, although I have met him and thought he was alright irl. He builds social housing for a living (my line of work, too) so I like him for that. It galls me though. It doesn't feel democratic at all.

The Green Party are nearest to my political beliefs. I'd gladly vote for them if they stood any chance of winning here. So it's not without irony that if we had the LibDem flagship policy of PR, I definitely wouldn't be voting for them. FPTP is shite.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Green Party are nearest to my political beliefs. I'd gladly vote for them if they stood any chance of winning here. So it's not without irony that if we had the LibDem flagship policy of PR, I definitely wouldn't be voting for them. FPTP is shite.

I've voted Green since moving here from Somerset, but as the Tories look like losing for the first time since at least the 1880's I am voting Labour, I would hate to see the Tories win by just one vote, I would never forgive myself.

 

[Elpenor]

I asked my son who he'd vote for, and he's actively choosing the LibDems I think there are 3 reasons...

1. He's 11 years old and literally doesn't know better
2. We've only had 4 leaflets through the door: blue, yellow, red, and the local independent**
3. We've talked about what 'tactical voting' means in general and local terms

[ ** the local independent candidate's slogan on his signs is "he's autistic and he swears but at least he f***ing cares". This wouldin principle be enough to get my cross, but sadly our system is too fucked for it to be a worthwhile vote ]

Anyway I'm still at a loss but coming round to the idea that voting LD to ditch the sitting tory is just about the only way I can salvage any shred of dignity out of Thursday.

Whatever happens I'll take the boy along with me; if Labour win and lower the voting age to 16 he'll be eligible himself next time (assuming 2029).

I’ve had a look at the independents Facebook page. They’re certainly passionate. I think I will pay them more attention going forward, I had them dismissed as anti development types but perhaps they’re worth looking at locally.

Their leaflet literally came through the door as I was typing this post

 

[baldrick]

Reform are very popular in my area according to Electoral Calculus. Not really a surprise though it is dismaying. Local FB groups full of people with Reform logos on their profile.

Full of old gimmers round here. My dad is one of them and i am DEFINITELY not asking how he's voting.

18% vote share some of them are predicting for Reform. Still 3rd though, behind LD with a fag paper between them and the Tories

I don't especially want to vote LD I'll be honest but it looks like the best chance.

The Tories have been very active with their publicity. Just today I've had a newspaper (lol!) and a letter from their candidate. Think this is the third or fourth bit of literature through the post from them

Labour and LDs only the one leaflet and nothing from anyone else.

 

[youbeauty]

Reform are doing a sterling job here (South Suffolk) of splitting the Tory vote. The constituency and its predecessors has always been Tory, even in 97 they had a healthy majority. But Electoral Calculus predicts Tories to get 26.3, Reform 24.8 and Labour 30.5.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Lib/Lab marginal here. I won't be voting for either of them, as far as that's a dilemma I resolve it with the thought that even in a marginal my vote doesn't really mean much anyway tbh.

Also they can both fuck off.

 

[DotCommunist]

I always refuse the hobsons, politically. Yes that means my vote goes in the pile marked 'puerile and/or too stupid to fill a ballot form in correctly' but its a stacked game anyway so fine, whatever. Committee for managing the affairs of etc

 

[StoneRoad]

Supposedly a safe nasty party seat here [SW Northumberland]
Labour usually second and the other parties way back in the dust ...

Currently. Electoral Calculus has Labour gaining the seat.
Since I don't want the nasty party to keep this seat, I've already done the deed with my postal vote.

 

[Gromit]

TBH, I don't see a dilemma there, if the best chance of kicking out a Tory is to vote LD, that's what I would be doing.

I looked at a tactical voting website for my area.

It's a Tory stronghold.

If it had said vote reform I'd have voted reform.
Thankfully it says vote Labour so I'll vote Labour.

Honestly it's that important to oust the Tories that I'd vote for racist scum. Safe in the knowledge that winning that single seat wouldn't get them anywhere near actual power or influence. I'd be denying the Conservatives, strengthening Labour and not empowering reform despite their win.

ETA: I pretty such Conservative will still win. Why bother to vote? So that historical graphs hopefully show a smaller margin this time than they did last time.
Why? So next time people view the graphs overturning their lead may look doable.

 

[Elpenor]

Lib/Lab marginal here. I won't be voting for either of them, as far as that's a dilemma I resolve it with the thought that even in a marginal my vote doesn't really mean much anyway tbh.

Also they can both fuck off.

I could live with that sort of dilemma!

 

[Elpenor]

Reform are very popular in my area according to Electoral Calculus. Not really a surprise though it is dismaying. Local FB groups full of people with Reform logos on their profile.

Full of old gimmers round here. My dad is one of them and i am DEFINITELY not asking how he's voting.

18% vote share some of them are predicting for Reform. Still 3rd though, behind LD with a fag paper between them and the Tories

Similar on the local FB groups here, though maybe it’s the same 15 noisy people each time but it still creates a presence if supporters of other parties don’t do likewise

The person at work I called out for making a racist remark lives where you are. She is younger than me, so it’s not just an age thing I think. I would not be surprised if she voted reform, who are also around 18-20% in the polls in this constituency and have taken a lot of the Tory vote I think.

I don't especially want to vote LD I'll be honest but it looks like the best chance.

Yeah this is the problem!

 

[baldrick]

The person at work I called out for making a racist remark lives where you are. She is younger than me, so it’s not just an age thing I think. I would not be surprised if she voted reform, who are also around 18-20% in the polls in this constituency and have taken a lot of the Tory vote I think.

This young person voting reform thing is quite dismaying isn't it.

 

[Serge Forward]

What is your desired objective? Get a govt you may or may not want or to get rid of one you definitely don't want. For Me it's simple, I want rid of the Tories first and are less concerned about what replaces them, it may not be better but it surely won't be worse.

That's very optimistic of you given that over the last few decades, every government (irrespective of the party in charge) has been worse than the previous one. Also bear in mind that Labour officially subscribes to Tory ideology now. Starmer's "USP" seems to be that he and his incoming supermajorityTM can fuck us over more efficiently while going beyond where the Tories "don't go far enough."

 

[Puddy_Tat]

So in my constituency it is most likely that the party of the dog killing austerity enablers are the ones who can beat the incumbent vermin, Anne Marie Morris. She had a 17k majority last time, but this is predicted to be a lot closer now due to the events of the last few years, perhaps the margin would be as low as a few hundred votes either way. With that said, I don’t think there’s been much central party activity down here as it’s still probably low on their target list.

Similar here, traditional safe tory seat, although the lib dems are putting a lot of effort in (or at least putting a lot of bumf through the door) - LD candidate is long term local councillor against a parachuted-in tory nonentity who'd already failed to get selected for at least one other seat, and who got the constituency name wrong on tweeter (said 'woking' not 'wokingham') in her first campaigning weekend here, and the pollsters seem to think LD's have a good chance here.

obviously, i'm not going to vote for the vermin or refuck.

labour candidate is a nonentity from somewhere in west london who sounds relatively inoffensive, but i can't face voting for the starmerised labour party.

the green is a fairly bland ex tory activist who seems to be a paper candidate, and a vote for the green will only help the tory candidate, so i've voted LD this time more to give the tories a kick up the arse more than any enthusiasm for the LD's, although they might (possibly) be a better opposition to starmer than the tories would be.

minor disappointment that john redwood has stood down so i can't vote against him this time.

it was a close decision between LD and draw something on the paper.

 

[MickiQ]

That's very optimistic of you given that over the last few decades, every government (irrespective of the party in charge) has been worse than the previous one. Also bear in mind that Labour officially subscribes to Tory ideology now. Starmer's "USP" seems to be that he and his incoming supermajorityTM can fuck us over more efficiently while going beyond where the Tories "don't go far enough."

Disagree all things considered I think the Blair/Brown years were an improvement on the Thatcher/Major ones, the following Conservative govt was definitely a retro step though I would agree with that. As for whether Starmer will be better/worse than Sunak we will see it's not like we're going to get any choice.

 

[Shellee]

Pretty much my situation too

The current Tory MP incumbent has been MP for 19 years and of course he’s a waste of space

The boundary changes and the anti Tory swing means there’s a ghost of a chance Labour could oust him

Starmer’s Labour is far too right wing for me and I did swear I’d never vote Labour again over their Brexit stance

….. but there’s a chance of ousting a git…….

And at least the Labour candidate lives in this constituency and is active in the local community

Should I hold my nose and do it?

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Think I've only ever lived in a marginal seat once, when I was at uni. Voted tactically then but the tory still won sadly. Lived in rock solid labour seats all the rest of adulthood.

 

[Serge Forward]

Disagree all things considered I think the Blair/Brown years were an improvement on the Thatcher/Major ones, the following Conservative govt was definitely a retro step though I would agree with that. As for whether Starmer will be better/worse than Sunak we will see it's not like we're going to get any choice.

Aye, if privatising (or semi-privatising) things not even Thatcher or Major would dare to mess with was an improvement... that and the whole war footing in multiple countries, mass murder in Iraq, the destabilisation of the wider region and the subsequent refugee crisis, now known as "STOP THE BOATS!!!"

 

[MickiQ]

Aye, if privatising (or semi-privatising) things not even Thatcher or Major would dare to mess with was an improvement... that and the whole war footing in multiple countries, mass murder in Iraq, the destabilisation of the wider region and the subsequent refugee crisis, now known as "STOP THE BOATS!!!"

Do you think any of those things wouldn't have happened if someone other than Blair had won

 

[Leafster]

Think I've only ever lived in a marginal seat once, when I was at uni. Voted tactically then but the tory still won sadly. Lived in rock solid labour seats all the rest of adulthood.

In normal circumstances my seat wouldn't ever be close to being a marginal but we live in strange times. It looks as though the Tory will cling on but we're in with a very slim chance of ditching her so I'd like to make the most of it, if I can.

 

[hash tag]

My Labour MP had a 9.5% majority. For the first time, neither me nor Mrs Tag will vote Labour. I think we might well be voting for different people

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Reform are very popular in my area according to Electoral Calculus. Not really a surprise though it is dismaying. Local FB groups full of people with Reform logos on their profile.

Full of old gimmers round here. My dad is one of them and i am DEFINITELY not asking how he's voting.

18% vote share some of them are predicting for Reform. Still 3rd though, behind LD with a fag paper between them and the Tories

I don't especially want to vote LD I'll be honest but it looks like the best chance.

The Tories have been very active with their publicity. Just today I've had a newspaper (lol!) and a letter from their candidate. Think this is the third or fourth bit of literature through the post from them

Labour and LDs only the one leaflet and nothing from anyone else.

This is why I fear more surprises like the Brexit referendum result. I suspect results forecasts are similarly too reliant on voting polls, mainstream media commentary from columnists and political pundits, many of whom are detached from the realities of every day life faced by many others - by which I mean those who aren't just facing the decision to cut back on daily lattes or foreign holidays as a result of the cost of living crisis, but people who are struggling to pay their bills, relying on food banks to get by, those who can't afford not to work but are thinking of giving up work because they can't afford childcare costs, etc.

The thing about giving too much weight to what the chatterati are saying and how many election leaflets come through your doors, is that it discounts or underestimates the influence of social media, and lots of people nowadays 'Don't do politics' so they don't read newspapers or watch the news, they don't get their news and current affairs from the Guardian website (which they'd probably be scornful of), they get their news from local/community groups on Facebook or through the filter of influencers or conspiracy theorists on TikTok or wherever.

There was previously talk of the 'Quiet Tories' but I think this time round there are probably lots of 'Quiet Reform voter's and some not so quiet ones.

Talking with some random people from around the country over the weekend, lefty types were quite vocal about wanting to get the Tories out. But some were noticeably quiet. One was said to be a Ukipper (probable Reform voter?).

And in recent weeks, I've found out people I work with (in a company reliant on international trade, and which has been impacted by Brexit), vote Conservative and/or supported Brexit, the latter was apparently "the best thing that's ever happened to this country".

I've previously spent a lot of time working in the media, arts, and VCSE sectors, to which I think a lot of lefties gravitate, so it's, erm, interesting to be talking to people, while thinking 'How the fuck can you be voting for the party that imposed austerity, fucked up the economy, and is promising more of the same'?

I think 'the left' and the media are underestimating how many people are so disaffected that they don't think the Tories have gone far enough.