Let's talk about China

[teqniq]

China pumps $109bn into economy as trade war bites on growth

 

[maomao]

. Imo they could collapse quite suddenly and peacefully, because they generally promote cynicism and apathy rather than ideology or passion. (i.e. Mind your own business, don't think about politics, just toe the line and you'll be safe. They actively promote this attitude and it is the prevailing political stance in China.) I don't think many people would die or even fight to defend them, even most of their members and top leaders.

This is wishful thinking IMO. The young generation may be more apathetic but anyone over the age of about thirty is actually very attached to the system that has dragged most of the country out of property. Nationalist sentiment is very high and while this doesn't have to translate to support for the party the party is best placed to take advantage of it. And among a certain generation (like my FiL, a former cadre) the top rank of the CCCP might as well be rock stars. I don't see the party going out quietly.

My wife and kids are in Tianjin right now. I'll ask my wife about this social credit stuff when they get back. Don't think it would be safe to discuss in detail over Wechat.

 

[Rimbaud]

This is wishful thinking IMO. The young generation may be more apathetic but anyone over the age of about thirty is actually very attached to the system that has dragged most of the country out of property. Nationalist sentiment is very high and while this doesn't have to translate to support for the party the party is best placed to take advantage of it. And among a certain generation (like my FiL, a former cadre) the top rank of the CCCP might as well be rock stars. I don't see the party going out quietly.

My wife and kids are in Tianjin right now. I'll ask my wife about this social credit stuff when they get back. Don't think it would be safe to discuss in detail over Wechat.

It is hard to gauge. Some of the more bitterly critical people I've met have been middle aged, people of the Tiananmen generation.

The people who are more strongly supportive of the regime are in my experience those who owe their success in large part to family connections with the Party and military, the so-called Red Second Generation.

It is hard to quantify when people self censor so much, but my impression is that working class people are more disparaging towards the party, and people in smaller cities tend to be so too. Purely anecdotal, but I encountered more dissent in Guizhou than anywhere else for some reason, although could be meaningless coincidence. Beijing and Tianjin are likely to be strongholds of regime support for obvious reasons.

It may be wishful thinking, but there isn't any other way to be optimistic at this stage. The best outcome which is feasibly possible would be for reformers to oust Xi and bring in some basic democratic reforms, but it doesn't look likely for some time. No matter what, China looks set to have a declining economy over the coming decades. It may take 20 years of decline, generational change, and Indian regional hegemony and economic success to prompt a change in direction. The real danger is if they try to invade Taiwan to distract people from problems at home.

 

[not-bono-ever]

too many CP members are doing very well out of the regime for any likely Coup I fear- they only number about 5% or so of the population but they have literally never had it so good.

 

[Yossarian]

When is the generation with the biggest imbalance between men and women reaching adulthood - or has it happened already? I always thought having tens or hundreds of millions of frustrated single young men around might be the start of unrest that could bring down the CCP...

 

[yield]

Dissapearing the head of Interpol seems to be a bold move.

China confirms detention of former Interpol chief Meng Hongwei
08/10/18

The Chinese head of Interpol – who vanished last month after returning to his homeland – was under investigation for possible criminal activity, China announced late on Sunday, as the world police organisation said he had resigned.

The revelations came as Meng Hongwei’s wife voiced concern for his life after receiving a final text message from his phone with a knife emoji.

Also the following Bloomberg piece is strange. Denials by Amazon and Apple.

The Big Hack: How China used a tiny chip to infiltrate U.S. Companies
04/10/18

The attack by Chinese spies reached almost 30 U.S. companies, including Amazon and Apple, by compromising America’s technology supply chain, according to extensive interviews with government and corporate sources.

More information about it in the Register

Decoding the Chinese Super Micro super spy-chip super-scandal: What do we know – and who is telling the truth?
04/10/18

Who's your money on? Bloomberg's sources? Apple? Amazon? Super Micro?

Feels like propaganda but I don't know enough about computers to know if it's feasible.

Secret Chineses spy chips hidden in internet servers

 

[Pickman's model]

Dissapearing the head of Interpol seems to be a bold move.

let's see what we can do to top it

 

[8ball]

let's see what we can do to top it

I think the most our lot will be able to manage is pushing the bins over outside the back of the Dragon Pearl.

 

[Rimbaud]

When is the generation with the biggest imbalance between men and women reaching adulthood - or has it happened already? I always thought having tens or hundreds of millions of frustrated single young men around might be the start of unrest that could bring down the CCP...

A bigger issue than that is the pre-one child policy baby boomers retiring soon. The size of China's labour force is set to decrease quite suddenly, certain to cause a drag on growth. Policy in the boom years saw everything invested in further economic growth rather than in establishing a social welfare net or a decent pension system. There are a lot of only children who are going to have to bear the burden of taking care of their parents at the same time as struggling to support their own offspring.*

Deflated expectations may be a bigger source of unrest. The younger generation have never known anything but rapid growth and improving living standards, and for the next generation to have worse living standards than their parents, as looks likely at this stage, would cause great loss of confidence in the Party's leadership. The demographic problem is occurring at the same time that China is struggling to navigate the middle income trap with lots of jobs moving out to other, cheaper regions of South East Asia, at the same time as environmental problems come home to roost, and at the same time as a historical miscalculation on the part of Xi Jinping which has led to a far more hostile international environment - and possibly at the same time as an unprecedented financial crisis when the property bubble finally bursts.

(*This is what is behind the recent crackdowns on feminism, LGBT rights, and the drive to get women back as homemakers; a desperate attempt to increase the birth rate. A small but significant policy change is that now property can only be owned in the name of one individual, and the cultural expectation of a man having a house before marriage - paid for by parents and grandparents as it is impossible to afford a house for most people otherwise - means that in the vast majority of cases property wealth will all end up in the hands of the man. This is combined with pervasive state propaganda praising traditional gender roles and motherhood, at the same time as scorning career women as unwanted and unfeminine. Since the end of the one child policy, there has also been a big increase in employment discrimination, as companies are reluctant to hire women who might go off on maternity leave.)

 

[not-bono-ever]

PHOTO STORY: Sihanoukville, China's New Colony - The News Lens International Edition

not sure if anyone has spent any time in snooky, Cambodia, but it seeems like hell on earth now- it was always a bit shit but the development of the place through chinese money (gambling outlets) does give it a wild west atmosphere these days.

 

[Rimbaud]

Some recent reports of a decline in disposable income and consumer spending from the Chinese middle class, reversing the story we have become used to.

The question mark hanging over China’s middle class

Conventional wisdom assumes that a large and prosperous middle class is emerging in China – hundreds of millions of urban white-collar professionals and private business owners deeply integrated into the Chinese economy, whose spending will drive the country’s development in the years ahead.

But that view is looking increasingly suspect, as the middle class comes under pressure from high costs, rising debt and weak income growth. Heavy air pollution, food safety and vaccine scandals, a rigid education system and an increasingly authoritarian political environment are also big factors prompting those who can afford it to look abroad. And the trade war with the United States threatens to make these problems worse.

....

Li Shi, an economics professor at Beijing Normal University, examined Chinese income and spending data over the last two decades and found there were two issues behind weaker consumer spending. Household income fell back to 50 per cent of the nation’s overall income from a level of about two-thirds of the total in 2000, as more taxes and fees were collected and household earnings increased at a slower pace than government revenue.

Li also found that the marginal propensity to consume among China’s urban residents – that is, their willingness to spend on discretionary items – has remained low in recent years due to rising household debt, much of it for housing, and an underdeveloped social welfare system that prompts consumers to save more for medical and old age expenses.

...

Growth in retail sales, a quasi barometer of consumer spending, has slowed to the lowest level in 15 years, while car sales declined in August for the second month in a row.

Sightseeing at famous scenic spots, a signature of the middle-class lifestyle, is also losing steam. The number of visitors to the popular Yellow Mountain, or Huangshan, dropped 10 per cent in the first half of this year from 2017, while Zhangjiajie, known for the mountains that inspired the scenery in James Cameron’s Avatar, and Guilin, famous for its soaring karst scenery, also saw fewer visitors in that period, with numbers down 8.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively, according to the financial reports of the listed companies operating the sites.

There is now a heated debate about whether Chinese consumers – burdened by high costs, high debt levels and worried about their future income – are in the midst of a “consumption downgrade”. This question is of particular importance given that the government wants and expects stronger consumer spending to take up much of the economic slack produced by the trade war.

...

China’s Consumption Downgrade: Skip Avocados, Cocktails and Kids

Chen Siqi doesn’t eat out so much anymore. Li Keli cut down on travel and takes her son to a public playground instead. Wang Jiazhi stopped dating.

Welcome to China’s “consumption downgrade” culture, a potentially worrisome development for Beijing and the world.

For years, the conversation in China was about “consumption upgrades.” As the economy took off, China’s middle class — now more than 400 million strong and still growing — decided to spend those bigger paychecks. It traded up from local brands to Nikes, from cheap phones to iPhones, from tea to $5 Starbucks lattes.

Today, China’s economy is slowing, and shopping has slowed with it. The stock market is slumping. China’s currency has lost some of its value. The trade war with President Trump has left many Chinese feeling pessimistic.

...

On paper, the Chinese economy looks strong. Look closer, and the cracks begin to show. Retail sales this year have grown at their slowest pace in more than a decade. Wages in the private sector are growing at their slowest pace since the global financial crisis. The stock market has fallen by one-fifth.

Last week, JD.com, a Chinese e-commerce company, reported disappointing quarterly results. JD.com’s focus is providing China’s growing middle class with quality products. Investors are watching closely to see whether the Alibaba Group, China’s biggest online retailer, will report weak results as well on Thursday.

Long-term factors are driving down spending among young people in particular. The cost of education is going up. Housing in rich cities like Beijing has become unaffordable for many.

 

[Yossarian]

Xi Jinping Thought has apparently been explained in a simple infographic.

 

[not-bono-ever]

seems to be a bit of a ramping up of the graft purge - estimated thad now 100 military types at rank of general or higher have been done/ are being done for corruption. including a few who are actually dead and have been postumously convicted and their family assets stripped.

is the boss is cleaning house and removing anyone who could possibly pose a threat from the PLA side of the game?

 

[mojo pixy]

Xi Jinping Thought has apparently been explained in a simple infographic.

View attachment 150104

Have to say I wish I could organise my thoughts as well as that.

 

[Rimbaud]

seems to be a bit of a ramping up of the graft purge - estimated thad now 100 military types at rank of general or higher have been done/ are being done for corruption. including a few who are actually dead and have been postumously convicted and their family assets stripped.

is the boss is cleaning house and removing anyone who could possibly pose a threat from the PLA side of the game?

It would appear so, yes.

There is a good article published in Foreign Policy recently which highlights how Xi's concentration of power is systematically dismantling the institutions which made China successful over the last 40 years.

China’s Great Leap Backward

Quick summary.

1 - The collective leadership model and term limits introduced by Deng avoided policy disasters like the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution by preventing accumulation of power in the hands of one person and by making a degree of debate, discussion, and criticism possible. This "helped weed out bad ideas and promote good ones by emphasizing careful deliberation and discouraging risk-taking." Xi has eliminated this system by making himself Chairman of everything, enshrining his "Thought" in the constitution making disagreement with him effectively treasonous, persecuted his rivals and critics in the party under the guise of anti-corruption, and abolished term limits.

2 - Bureaucrats under the old system could be expected to be rewarded for good performance. If an official performed well, they could expect career advancement and a cut of the proceeds. Xi has replaced the carrot with only a stick, warping officials priorities from delivering results to showing loyalty above all else, and creating a passive bureaucracy which waits for orders from the top before doing anything.

3 - Related to the above, a degree of autonomy in meeting results allowed for local officials to experiment with new policies, turning China into a country with hundreds of policy laboratories at regional or municipal levels. Under Xi, such experiments have fallen in number from 500 in 2010 to only 70 in 2016, and probably fewer still now.

4 - Previously, officials copied successful policy ideas from foreign countries, such as Taiwan, Japan, and the US. Under Xi, it has become harder for officials to interact with foreigners. Additionally, increased academic censorship has made study of foreign cultures impossible, with a priority of limiting contact with foreign ideas which could threaten Party rule.

All these factors are likely to combine to make China a typical basket case authoritarian state, rather than the exceptionally successful one it was previously.

On the domestic level, Beijing’s policymaking is already becoming less agile and adept. Examples of this more rigid approach, and its downsides, aren’t hard to find. Consider last winter, when the government decided to force an abrupt nationwide switch from the use of coal to gas in heating systems. It sounded like a smart move for a country as polluted as China. But the edict was enforced suddenly across the country, with no exceptions. Thus in China’s frigid north, many coal-burning furnaces were ripped out before new gas ones could be installed—leaving entire towns without heat and forcing villagers to burn corn cobs to survive.

If China continues down its current course, expect many more cases where even well-intentioned policies are implemented in a rash and clumsy way, leading to still more harmful consequences. Since personalized dictatorships are necessarily bad at admitting fault—for nothing can be permitted to damage the myth of the omnipotent leader—China will also likely become less adept at correcting mistakes once it makes them. Or at confronting the underlying problems that are dragging down its economy, such as an overreliance on bloated and inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which have only grown bigger and more powerful since Xi took office; dangerously high debt levels, especially among local governments; and a tendency to react to every downturn by pumping more cash into the system, especially for unnecessary infrastructure projects. In fact, China is not only unlikely to address any of these shortcomings; it’s likely to compound them. That is just what it did on Oct. 7, when the People’s Bank of China announced yet another costly stimulus program: a $175 billion plan to shore up small and medium-sized businesses.

There also seems to be an emerging pattern of shooting itself in the foot diplomatically for the sake of proving loyalty and putting on a show for domestic audiences.

A Chinese journalist assaults a volunteer at the Tory Party conference for comments on Hong Kong independence:

'Hong Kong puppet': Chinese CCTV journalist allegedly slaps volunteer at Tory conference

Unnecessary spat with Sweden:

China’s new diplomacy in Europe has a name: broken porcelain | David Bandurski

Repressing Muslims at the same time as relying on Muslim countries for flagship foreign policy:

Islamic World Mounts Protests Against Xinjiang Crisis – China Digital Times (CDT)
Anwar to emphasise bilateral ties and Uygur rights on China

 

[Pickman's model]

It would appear so, yes.

There is a good article published in Foreign Policy recently which highlights how Xi's concentration of power is systematically dismantling the institutions which made China successful over the last 40 years.

China’s Great Leap Backward

Quick summary.

1 - The collective leadership model and term limits introduced by Deng avoided policy disasters like the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution by preventing accumulation of power in the hands of one person and by making a degree of debate, discussion, and criticism possible. This "helped weed out bad ideas and promote good ones by emphasizing careful deliberation and discouraging risk-taking." Xi has eliminated this system by making himself Chairman of everything, enshrining his "Thought" in the constitution making disagreement with him effectively treasonous, persecuted his rivals and critics in the party under the guise of anti-corruption, and abolished term limits.

2 - Bureaucrats under the old system could be expected to be rewarded for good performance. If an official performed well, they could expect career advancement and a cut of the proceeds. Xi has replaced the carrot with only a stick, warping officials priorities from delivering results to showing loyalty above all else, and creating a passive bureaucracy which waits for orders from the top before doing anything.

3 - Related to the above, a degree of autonomy in meeting results allowed for local officials to experiment with new policies, turning China into a country with hundreds of policy laboratories at regional or municipal levels. Under Xi, such experiments have fallen in number from 500 in 2010 to only 70 in 2016, and probably fewer still now.

4 - Previously, officials copied successful policy ideas from foreign countries, such as Taiwan, Japan, and the US. Under Xi, it has become harder for officials to interact with foreigners. Additionally, increased academic censorship has made study of foreign cultures impossible, with a priority of limiting contact with foreign ideas which could threaten Party rule.

All these factors are likely to combine to make China a typical basket case authoritarian state, rather than the exceptionally successful one it was previously.



There also seems to be an emerging pattern of shooting itself in the foot diplomatically for the sake of proving loyalty and putting on a show for domestic audiences.

A Chinese journalist assaults a volunteer at the Tory Party conference for comments on Hong Kong independence:

'Hong Kong puppet': Chinese CCTV journalist allegedly slaps volunteer at Tory conference

Unnecessary spat with Sweden:

China’s new diplomacy in Europe has a name: broken porcelain | David Bandurski

Repressing Muslims at the same time as relying on Muslim countries for flagship foreign policy:

Islamic World Mounts Protests Against Xinjiang Crisis – China Digital Times (CDT)
Anwar to emphasise bilateral ties and Uygur rights on China

All of which increases the chances of war, the refuge of the failing authoritarian

 

[Rimbaud]

All of which increases the chances of war, the refuge of the failing authoritarian

Indeed, if there is a financial crisis in China caused by the housing bubble bursting I think a war with Taiwan could be very likely.

There is a very good chance that Taiwan will be able to defeat a Chinese beachhead even without help, but the danger is that Xi filling the PLA with yesmen and cronies reduces the chance of Chinese leadership getting an accurate account of the risks.

 

[Rimbaud]

Conspiracy theory time.

UBS warns staff against travel to China after an employee is prevented from leaving the country. Subscribe to read | Financial Times This is related to China trying to stop money leaving the country as its stockmarket crumbles. UBS runs a "wealth management" service in China, which may have been advising wealthy clients on how to get money out of China. Gambling in Macau is one of those loopholes identified in the Financial Times.

From the article -

"Chinese regulators, trying to stop capital from leaving the country and further weakening the renminbi, have long been engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with rich Chinese investors who have desperately hunted for loopholes, such as gambling in Macau, in order to get their money out of China. "

And now the same day that UBS warns staff against travel to China, China's top Macau representative turns up dead after falling from his balcony...

China's top Macau representative dead after falling from his building | Reuters

I wonder, was he turning a blind eye or assisting rich Chinese in getting money out the country, and was he murdered to set an example? As the Chinese stockmarket collapses, preventing money leaving is a priority of the CCP. Fan Bingbing's arrest should be seen in this light, and it seems likely that the arrest of the head of Interpol is somehow connected.

Chinese tycoon dies from fall in France

Disgraced HNA boss Wang Jian also "fell" to his death in France a few months ago. A murder by Chinese agents to warn the big fish that they aren't safe anywhere if they flee?

Ma Yun's recent early retirement is probably a smart move on his part.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Commented on this elsewhere

Conservative estimate is that 25% of cash flowing through Macao is flight wedge - cash being dumped outside of the PRC to avoid the increasingly tight currency regulations. Cannot say anything specific on this - it’s a bit delicate

 

[krtek a houby]

Excuse my ignorance (and apologies if this has been posted previously) but there seems to be a silence from the west on this horror

China’s reeducation camps for Muslims are begining to look like concentration camps

 

[yield]

Excuse my ignorance (and apologies if this has been posted previously) but there seems to be a silence from the west on this horror

China’s reeducation camps for Muslims are begining to look like concentration camps

Other thread xinjiang, prc lab for repression

 

[Idris2002]

Deng Xiaoping's son, crippled while fleeing from Red Guards in the GPCR, has made a speech which sounds like a barely veiled criticism of the Xi regime:

China should ‘know its place’, Deng Xiaoping’s son says

He even alludes to Mao, at least that's where I think the "seek truth from facts" bit comes from. I very much doubt if that's accidental.

 

[gosub]

I don't buy the peaceful rise stuff one bit - why would you trust a government that is so oppressive to its own people?

The nine-dot line stuff is worrying, as is the Senkaku dispute with Japan.

Could joint sovereignty solve the Diaoyu Islands dispute?
Japan and U.S. to formulate armed response to China threat to Senkakus: sources | The Japan Times

 

[yield]

China blacklists millions of people from booking flights as 'social credit' system introduced
November 22, 2018

Millions of Chinese nationals have been blocked from booking flights or trains as Beijing seeks to implement its controversial “social credit” system, which allows the government to closely monitor and judge each of its 1.3 billion citizens based on their behaviour and activity.

The system, to be rolled out by 2020, aims to make it “difficult to move” for those deemed “untrustworthy”, according to a detailed plan published by the government this week.

"Capitalism with Asian values" whatever that means

 

[maomao]

"Capitalism with Asian values" whatever that means

Same as communism with Chinese characteristics it means whatever the fuck the CCCP want it to.

 

[yield]

Water crisis puts trade war into perspective for China
November 23, 2018

Glaciers in the country’s western regions are the source of a network of rivers which supply drinking water to an estimated 1.8 billion people.

Known as “Asia’s Water Tower,” Greenpeace pointed out, it is the largest concentration of freshwater outside the polar regions.

“Almost one-fifth of glacier area in China is already gone,” the study entitled “China Glacier and Climate Change Impact Project,” stated.

“These glaciers are the source of many of Asia’s largest rivers, which flow as far as Afghanistan, Vietnam and southern India. They comprise more than half of ‘Asia’s Water Tower’,’” it added.

 

[teqniq]

Amazing if sometimes disturbing pics. and now the photographer has 'disappeared'.

Award-Winning Photojournalist Disappears in China, Here Are 21 of His Pics They Don’t Want You to See

 

[not-bono-ever]

I cannot like that but cheers for the link

 

[spring-peeper]

Wasn't that nice of her...

Pizza shared with media camped outside Huawei CFO's Vancouver home

A pizza delivery to the Vancouver home of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou turned into an offer of lunch on Wednesday for members of the media camped outside.

When six pizza were delivered to Meng's house the delivery driver was instructed to take four of them to reporters and photographers who were stationed on the sidewalk.

The media then passed the pizzas on to members of a construction crew down the street.

For those who may have missed it, she is being held pending extradition to the USA.

 

[Yossarian]

Wasn't that nice of her...

Pizza shared with media camped outside Huawei CFO's Vancouver home



For those who may have missed it, she is being held pending extradition to the USA.

"OK, Mrs. Meng, we've earmarked $20,000 to pay a PR firm to make sure you get some positive media coverage here in Canada."

"I'm the CFO and I say we can do it for $40."