Let's talk about China

[Rimbaud]

From the sound of it ,is happening nationally, some organization from university students apparently

Seems so - I've seen footage of protests in Urumqi, Nanjing, Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Guangzhou so far.

I doubt whether there is significant organisation, I think these are organic reactions to a population tired of excessive lockdowns. The world cup showing that the rest of the world has moved on is the main trigger.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Quarantine camps being constructed outside Guangzhou.



Is this really still about covid, or about social control while the economy falters?

The latter. As Western discretionary spending drops, so does the demand for Chinese goods.

What a paradox, you loathe the West, but your economy is dependant on it having money to spend.

 

[Pickman's model]

Quarantine camps being constructed outside Guangzhou.



Is this really still about covid, or about social control while the economy falters?

What's it say on that building with the writing on it?

 

[gosub]

The latter. As Western discretionary spending drops, so does the demand for Chinese goods.

What a paradox, you loathe the West, but your economy is dependant on it having money to spend.

As much as western discretionary spending is dropping...trade barriers being erected are also having an effect
as is the bursting of the housing bubble...CCP just nationalised all the debts of housing developers and covered the unpaid mortgages (moral hazzard anyone). That should be enough to keep China's economically significant construction industry limping on but I can't see it buying a lot more land rights for new development and local government relies on those sales to function

 

[JimW]

I think most people are, in theory, vaccinated, but using the Chinese vaccine which by all accounts is not as effective as its Western counterparts

Take up poor among the elderly who are most vulnerable though as I recall; working age people had to get it done by and large but retirees didn't want to risk it, mix of distrust and the formerly low rate of general prevalence. The Chinese vaccines do fine on making infections milder in most instances like the Western versions do from studies I've seen.
The quarantine camps will be entirely about pushing ahead with their chosen public health course not any sort of readiness for economic downturn or whatever; if that was the main concern they'd have stopped the lockdowns sooner as the policy is a big drag; otherwise they have all the public order control capacity they need as a matter of course already, it's their stock in trade.
We've been in partial lockdown for a few days in our village, though nothing like the month I had at the old place during the height, you could come and go and even leave the village if you really wanted to, not that there are many places to go to and schools off too.

 

[elbows]

This is one of the twitter sources I've started using to hear about protests. They are "Correspondent in China for Dutch newspaper "de Volkskrant" and other Dutch/Belgian media. Based in Beijing. "

https://twitter.com/leenvervaeke

eg:

 

[elbows]

Take up poor among the elderly who are most vulnerable though as I recall; working age people had to get it done by and large but retirees didn't want to risk it, mix of distrust and the formerly low rate of general prevalence. The Chinese vaccines do fine on making infections milder in most instances like the Western versions do from studies I've seen.

Articles do still tend to mention concerns about how effective their vaccines are, but I've not looked at that data properly myself and tend to put this down as an unknown factor.

Another factor is that since there have been far less infections there so far, the population as a whole doesnt have the sort of immunity picture thats been built up elsewhere via the combination of vaccines and prior infections.

Articles like this one from the BBC a few days ago includes a chart showing some of the vaccine coverage by age issues:

How many Covid cases does China have and what are its rules?

Covid-19 is flaring up in China, despite it having some of the toughest lockdown rules in the world.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Yossarian]

Amazing to see those scenes in Shanghai and elsewhere. I hope protests spread to every city in China, though the CCP has probably cancelled leave for every tank mechanic in the country.

 

[Sasaferrato]

elbows With regard to exposure, I would imagine that a lot of us who have had 3 or 4 vaccinations may well have had a symptomless very mild infection?

 

[frogwoman]

Welcome to nginx!

Article in the NYT about living under China's lockdown rules

 

[Dystopiary]

In the thread that frogwoman linked to last night, there's a tweet showing a young Han Chinese woman from Xinjiang talking about the fire and deaths of marginalised people.

Someone got it translated into English.

Non-twitter link: Translated video Hello everyone, I am from Xinjiang. I don't want to be from Xinjiang....

 

[Dystopiary]

Vivian Wu on twitter

 

[Sasaferrato]

It would seem that the virus is being used as pretext to exert social control without more violent scenes in the world press, that said, this is a country that is willing to drive a tank over an unarmed man.

I think that Russia is a busted flush, and is not coming back to its previous strength, ever. That leaves the US and China to fight it out as to who is top dog. The starting gun for WWIII will be the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Maybe.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah I watched a few seconds of the video of the fire and people screaming etc and really wish I hadn't

 

[zahir]

 

[frogwoman]

 

[JimW]

It would seem that the virus is being used as pretext to exert social control without more violent scenes in the world press, that said, this is a country that is willing to drive a tank over an unarmed man.

My sense is the former is a mischaracterisation - they've never needed an excuse to exert social control and would prefer not to be doing this but have painted themselves into a corner by tying legitimacy over past couple of years to supposedly beating COVIID with low death toll, but can't make the provisions to go at it another way as a large part of that would involved fixing the utterly fucked up health system. The only thing you might say is they do like performative submission to monitoring and the health apps provide that but again, the current ability to access ubiquitous social media apps like WeChat would mean it wouldn't be necessary to allow state security to do the big data crunching.

 

[elbows]

elbows With regard to exposure, I would imagine that a lot of us who have had 3 or 4 vaccinations may well have had a symptomless very mild infection?

I'll answer you another day in the pandemic forum if you dont mind, save this thread for China-specific developments.

 

[friedaweed]

Anti-lockdown protests spread in China as anger rises over zero-Covid strategy

Beijing students shout ‘freedom will prevail’, as Urumqi fire prompts levels of disobedience unprecedented in Xi era

www.theguardian.com

Are we going to see an Asian Winter?

 

[Sasaferrato]

I'll answer you another day in the pandemic forum if you dont mind, save this thread for China-specific developments.

Thank you. You are right of course, wrong thread.

 

[Yossarian]

Welcome to nginx!

Article in the NYT about living under China's lockdown rules

With lies, cover-ups, censorship, and massive social control - along with illogical shit like refusing to use the best vaccine available and uselessly spraying outdoor urban areas with disinfectant daily - China's basically acting the way the most paranoid Western anti-vaxxers claimed their governments were acting, I hope it's pissed off a broad enough swathe of society to make change possible.

 

[frogwoman]

Maybe Piers Corbyn should go to China and make himself useful for once.

 

[frogwoman]

I wonder if the CCP will decide to replace him at some point. Unlike Putin's United Russia they seem to have power of their own that doesn't depend on him. And there must be a few old style tankies/maoists and neoliberal business types who are pissed off too

 

[moochedit]

I wonder if the CCP will decide to replace him at some point. Unlike Putin's United Russia they seem to have power of their own that doesn't depend on him. And there must be a few old style tankies/maoists and neoliberal business types who are pissed off too

They may try simply u-turning on covid policies and hope that is enough to calm people down. But if that doesn't work (or winnie refuses to do it) i guess they might consider ditching him. Unless they go for the tanks option

 

[tim]

The students in Tiananmen Square sang the "Internationale" in 1989.

 

[frogwoman]

It's not been a good few months for dictators recently. North Korea is of course the big one - with them being so economically dependent on China I wonder how far off that is

 

[gosub]

China caught in eye-opening act during Socceroos game at World Cup

Videos have emerged online that appear to catch China's state broadcaster in the act at the World Cup. Read more here.

au.sports.yahoo.com

Just when I thought football couldn't get any less real (one of the many reasonswhy rugby is the better sport)


Condolences to Aaron Snipe btw

 

[platinumsage]

I wonder if the CCP will decide to replace him at some point. Unlike Putin's United Russia they seem to have power of their own that doesn't depend on him. And there must be a few old style tankies/maoists and neoliberal business types who are pissed off too

No chance any time soon. In terms of security of tenure Xi is at the "Krushchev brandishes Sputnik on the front cover of TIME magazine" stage, rather than the "Brezhnev considers arresting him" stage.

 

[Rimbaud]

I wonder if the CCP will decide to replace him at some point. Unlike Putin's United Russia they seem to have power of their own that doesn't depend on him. And there must be a few old style tankies/maoists and neoliberal business types who are pissed off too

From what I understand, under Xi the Party is under the most severe surveillance of any part of Chinese society. Organising against him is difficult and requires trying to meet in secret to talk face to face with no phones present that can be used to listen in.

However, according to defector Cai Xia who used to be head of the Central Party School, there is indeed widespread discontent with Xi within the Party, however he has done a pretty good job at demoting or purging people who he doesn't trust and promoting loyalists regardless of competence (one reason why China's governance has became so apparently erratic and unpredictable imo).

There is a possibility that these protests may present a political crisis that a section of the Party can use as an opportunity to move against him, but we won't know until it happens.

 

[Pickman's model]

No chance any time soon. In terms of security of tenure Xi is at the "Krushchev brandishes Sputnik on the front cover of TIME magazine" stage, rather than the "Brezhnev considers arresting him" stage.

I'm not persuaded you've incorporated the accelerationism of our time into your analysis