Let's talk about China
- Thread starter not-bono-ever
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i see the chinese police have pre-empted any attempt to establish an anarchist white overalls movement in their country
Some thoughts on the protests.
It seems the CCP is taking the route of refusing to publicly acknowledge them and hoping it will all blow over and be memoryholed. They did this with the Hong Kong protests for some time until they could provoke them into violence and create a narrative to spin it to the mainland. I guess they will eventually try to pin it on foreign instigators or blame the protestors for spreading covid, but we will see how successful that is.
Xi could end these protests pretty quickly by winding down zero Covid, but doing so would have a pretty serious impact on his authority as he has made zero covid so central to his rule, e.g. promoting Li Qiang, the guy responsible for the disastrous Shanghai lockdown to the Central Committee, and a lot of propaganda mocking other countries for their covid response. Doing this would regain control of the situation but put him in a weaker position, as well as undermining the credibility of the Party in general. It also risks setting a precedent for successful protest directed at the Central government, rather than over local issues. Nevertheless it would be possible to come through with damage control, putting the blame on excessive policies by local governments, pretending the policy had been successfully completed and pretending the protests never happened.
However, from what we have seen from Xi so far, it is possible to takes the far dumber step of doubling down on zero covid and trying to repress the protests by any means necessary. This could lead to them mushrooming and possibly a greater conflagration and severe breakdown of trust between the Party and the people, and without the possibility of the post-Tiananmen 30 years of breakneck economic growth to patch things up.
I'd also like to add that previously, most people in China, even if they hoped for an end to censorship and more rule of law, had faith in the Party's capacity for reform and did not consider it necessary to engage in protest.
Xi has undone a lot of the liberalisation that might have given some space to critical views, and as a product of this repression of alternative views and new effective ways of propagandising via social media, confidence in the Party was at an all time high around the mid point of his tenure. However, in doing so, he has also taken away people's hope for reform so it was only a temporary success - now critics of the government are concluding that the Party itself must go, rather than merely hoping that it will reform itself as a product of economic development.
I think it is almost certain that the Party will weather this storm, whether by giving in to the protests or by forcefully repressing them, but in doing so the social contract between Party and people will be dealt severe long term damage.
I think it now looks unlikely that China's economy will surpass the USA's anytime soon. Over the next decade, as a sense of stagnation creeps in and the promise of "we will be number 1 soon!" starts to fade, there will be greater cynicism and antagonism towards the CCP across society. India will overtake China as the world's most populous country next year if it hasn't already, and before the end of this decade it will overtake Japan as the 3rd largest economy. I think a growing sense that number 1 isn't inevitable and that even a place at number 2 isn't secure will lead to greater criticism and reflection about what needs to change about China. The CCP will probably survive for a long time yet, but this is the beginning of its decline, which is likely to be a long one.
It seems the CCP is taking the route of refusing to publicly acknowledge them and hoping it will all blow over and be memoryholed. They did this with the Hong Kong protests for some time until they could provoke them into violence and create a narrative to spin it to the mainland. I guess they will eventually try to pin it on foreign instigators or blame the protestors for spreading covid, but we will see how successful that is.
Xi could end these protests pretty quickly by winding down zero Covid, but doing so would have a pretty serious impact on his authority as he has made zero covid so central to his rule, e.g. promoting Li Qiang, the guy responsible for the disastrous Shanghai lockdown to the Central Committee, and a lot of propaganda mocking other countries for their covid response. Doing this would regain control of the situation but put him in a weaker position, as well as undermining the credibility of the Party in general. It also risks setting a precedent for successful protest directed at the Central government, rather than over local issues. Nevertheless it would be possible to come through with damage control, putting the blame on excessive policies by local governments, pretending the policy had been successfully completed and pretending the protests never happened.
However, from what we have seen from Xi so far, it is possible to takes the far dumber step of doubling down on zero covid and trying to repress the protests by any means necessary. This could lead to them mushrooming and possibly a greater conflagration and severe breakdown of trust between the Party and the people, and without the possibility of the post-Tiananmen 30 years of breakneck economic growth to patch things up.
I'd also like to add that previously, most people in China, even if they hoped for an end to censorship and more rule of law, had faith in the Party's capacity for reform and did not consider it necessary to engage in protest.
Xi has undone a lot of the liberalisation that might have given some space to critical views, and as a product of this repression of alternative views and new effective ways of propagandising via social media, confidence in the Party was at an all time high around the mid point of his tenure. However, in doing so, he has also taken away people's hope for reform so it was only a temporary success - now critics of the government are concluding that the Party itself must go, rather than merely hoping that it will reform itself as a product of economic development.
I think it is almost certain that the Party will weather this storm, whether by giving in to the protests or by forcefully repressing them, but in doing so the social contract between Party and people will be dealt severe long term damage.
I think it now looks unlikely that China's economy will surpass the USA's anytime soon. Over the next decade, as a sense of stagnation creeps in and the promise of "we will be number 1 soon!" starts to fade, there will be greater cynicism and antagonism towards the CCP across society. India will overtake China as the world's most populous country next year if it hasn't already, and before the end of this decade it will overtake Japan as the 3rd largest economy. I think a growing sense that number 1 isn't inevitable and that even a place at number 2 isn't secure will lead to greater criticism and reflection about what needs to change about China. The CCP will probably survive for a long time yet, but this is the beginning of its decline, which is likely to be a long one.
gosub
~#
CCP authorities have vans equiped with mobile and wifi jammers, some of which have been deployed over the weekend
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i think the beginning of its decline started some time ago, perhaps the abolition of the one child policy in recognition of the demographic realities of the situation. but it is because of protests like these and the potential weakening of the regime's legitimacy - can they still master the yangtze? - that will lead to more bellicose talk over the next fifteen months and quite possibly the great war of 2025
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
and of course you can link to something substantiating this
JimW
支那暗杀团
Don't see these growing to any major thing in the near term (while there's enormous anger and frustration also a widespread groundswell of acceptance that it's all there's left to do IMO) but have seen a lot of commentary on the frittering away of what goodwill the regime had managed to accumulate post-89 and that's not coming back soon, especially as no future boom years look likely.
gosub
~#
As usual dickhead, yes.
(eta 12:00) why youtube facilitates the wumao efforts to restrict content that isn't theoretically accessable in China anyway is beyond me
For the benefit of anyone else, I have picks on ignore because he is a cunt, that he contentiously attempts to troll me into responding to him, is to me just him doubling down on how big a cunt he is.
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I think Xi's concentration of power and removal of term limits set the decline in motion, so the decline probably dates back to the conflict between Xi and Bo Xilai 10 years ago. However, the structural damage he has done to the Party has been largely invisible and public support had appeared to increase - until now. Directly protesting against central government rather than local issues is definitely a milestone, at any rate.
Edit: Also my impression is that the risk of war over Taiwan has subsided somewhat due to Russian difficulty in Ukraine. It looks a bit like they are now trying to salvage their relationship with the US, based on statements made after Xi and Biden met.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Yeah , the disaster that has been Russia's special operation has got to be putting him off trying something similar? Or maybe it hasn't (or people don't believe so) and some in the CCP are scheming on ways to remove him?
They have complained about Putin "misleading" them over Ukraine which I think means they took Russia at their word that they would swiftly conquer Ukraine, causing NATO to split and setting the scene for China to roll into Taiwan. That this didn't happen has surely had some impact on their calculations and I don't think it's a coincidence that Xi met with Biden shortly after Russian victory started to clearly look remote, leading to Biden announcing that there is no need for a new cold war with China.
Russia planned to attack Japan in 2021: leaked FSB letters
In August 2021, Russia was "quite seriously preparing for a localized military conflict with Japan," an FSB agent wrote in an email shared with Newsweek.
www.newsweek.com
Incidentally, there were some leaked documents that show Russia was considering going to war to take some disputed islands from Japan instead of war with Ukraine. I guess this would have been preferred by China as a way to gauge how the US responds to a challenge in East Asia, and also because Ukraine is quite important to China's Belt and Road as part of a land route to European markets. I think it is possible Xi was trying to persuade Putin to do that instead of war with Ukraine.
gosub
~#
China Is Starting to Really Regret Its Friendship With Russia
Russia was not the first Chinese partner to believe it would win a very fast war and found itself in a hole, but China wasn’t usually pulled into it with them.
www.thedailybeast.com
Thought that was an interesting article ...
Russia of course sees things differently
Russia’s new envoy to China vows to fight ‘unipolar hegemony’
Ambassador Igor Morgulov tells Chinese foreign minister the friendship between the countries can ‘overcome any challenge’, though Beijing’s statement on the talks does not mention Ukraine war.
www.google.com
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i wonder how well that russian combined operation might have goneThey have complained about Putin "misleading" them over Ukraine which I think means they took Russia at their word that they would swiftly conquer Ukraine, causing NATO to split and setting the scene for China to roll into Taiwan. That this didn't happen has surely had some impact on their calculations and I don't think it's a coincidence that Xi met with Biden shortly after Russian victory started to clearly look remote, leading to Biden announcing that there is no need for a new cold war with China.
Russia planned to attack Japan in 2021: leaked FSB letters
In August 2021, Russia was "quite seriously preparing for a localized military conflict with Japan," an FSB agent wrote in an email shared with Newsweek.
Incidentally, there were some leaked documents that show Russia was considering going to war to take some disputed islands from Japan instead of war with Ukraine. I guess this would have been preferred by China as a way to gauge how the US responds to a challenge in East Asia, and also because Ukraine is quite important to China's Belt and Road as part of a land route to European markets. I think it is possible Xi was trying to persuade Putin to do that instead of war with Ukraine.
China Is Starting to Really Regret Its Friendship With Russia
Russia was not the first Chinese partner to believe it would win a very fast war and found itself in a hole, but China wasn’t usually pulled into it with them.www.thedailybeast.com
Thought that was an interesting article ...
Russia of course sees things differently
Russia’s new envoy to China vows to fight ‘unipolar hegemony’
Ambassador Igor Morgulov tells Chinese foreign minister the friendship between the countries can ‘overcome any challenge’, though Beijing’s statement on the talks does not mention Ukraine war.
That is a good article and explains why they are now trying to salvage relations with the US.
gosub
~#
My understanding was that China didn't want the illegal occupation to happen whilst was attempting to use the Winter Olympics as a showcase...the delay meant thaw had started by the the time Putins mob went washing machine hunting, which meant they had to stick to the roads making he Ukrainians job easierThey have complained about Putin "misleading" them over Ukraine which I think means they took Russia at their word that they would swiftly conquer Ukraine, causing NATO to split and setting the scene for China to roll into Taiwan. That this didn't happen has surely had some impact on their calculations and I don't think it's a coincidence that Xi met with Biden shortly after, leading to Biden announcing that there is no need for a new cold war with China.
Russia planned to attack Japan in 2021: leaked FSB letters
In August 2021, Russia was "quite seriously preparing for a localized military conflict with Japan," an FSB agent wrote in an email shared with Newsweek.
Incidentally, there were some leaked documents that show Russia was considering going to war to take some disputed islands from Japan instead of war with Ukraine. I guess this would have been preferred by China as a way to gauge how the US responds to a challenge in East Asia, and also because Ukraine is quite important to China's Belt and Road as part of a land route to European markets. I think it is possible Xi was trying to persuade Putin to do that instead of war with Ukraine.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
He who must not be named
The Prince
Duration: 37:38
Published: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:54:00 GMT
Episode: He who must not be named Podcast Republic
Media: https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/62cff2d9d455860013698a7f/e/633418b5cce1250013c6b576/media.mp3
Podcast: The Prince Podcast Republic
<p>A censor at a Chinese social media company can't take it anymore after Xi Jinping’s rule brings harsh new restrictions. The Chinese internet becomes an alternate reality.</p><br><p>Subscribe to <em...
----
Sent from Podcast Republic 22.11.6R
play.google.com
This is an interview w someone who used to work for China's censors deleting words (surprised it is done manually). Absolutely nuts.
The Prince
Duration: 37:38
Published: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:54:00 GMT
Episode: He who must not be named Podcast Republic
Media: https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/62cff2d9d455860013698a7f/e/633418b5cce1250013c6b576/media.mp3
Podcast: The Prince Podcast Republic
<p>A censor at a Chinese social media company can't take it anymore after Xi Jinping’s rule brings harsh new restrictions. The Chinese internet becomes an alternate reality.</p><br><p>Subscribe to <em...
----
Sent from Podcast Republic 22.11.6R
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This is an interview w someone who used to work for China's censors deleting words (surprised it is done manually). Absolutely nuts.
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
He who must not be named
The Prince
Duration: 37:38
Published: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:54:00 GMT
Episode: He who must not be named Podcast Republic
Media: https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/62cff2d9d455860013698a7f/e/633418b5cce1250013c6b576/media.mp3
Podcast: The Prince Podcast Republic
<p>A censor at a Chinese social media company can't take it anymore after Xi Jinping’s rule brings harsh new restrictions. The Chinese internet becomes an alternate reality.</p><br><p>Subscribe to <em...
----
Sent from Podcast Republic 22.11.6R
Podcast Republic - Podcast app - Apps on Google Play
Podcasts, Radio, Audiobook and RSS news all in one easy to use customizable app.
This is an interview w someone who used to work for China's censors deleting words (surprised it is done manually). Absolutely nuts.
An 11 hours shift, just censoring posts between 10:04am-10:08am on Weibo. WTF man. That must be soul destroying stuff.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I know. I don't think he had a clue what he was going to be asked to do when he started and I imagine it wouldbe quite difficult to quit
gosub
~#
Yeah, that'll stop Covid
Not sure giving them 2metre nightsticks would improve matters
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
From Ürümchi to Shanghai: Demands from Chinese and Hong Kong Socialists - Lausan
The region with some of the country’s most marginalized has become the spark for the largest scale mobilization in Chinese society in years.
lausancollective.com
Statement by Chinese socialists
editor
hiraethified
Imagine being two years into a near permanent lockdown with absolutely no indication when it might end - if ever - and seeing the rest of the world having a big football party....
Thesaint
Active Member
The logic of it all reminds me of the tactics of the trench warfare in WW1...if it's not working do more of it
What I mean is they, don't have a plan B so have to carry on with plan A.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I didn't realise that Chinese people have to do covid tests just to leave their apartment building sometimes. And that the authorities can randomly change your code on the app from green to red at which point you are picked up and taken to quarantine- unless in some cases you can go and sign a bit of paper to declare you don't have covid it's hard to see how this is not just going to spread covid tbh but I don't really think it's even about that for them any more.
There's even reports of rescue workers in an earthquake having to take a covid test before they could rescue anyone
it's hard to see how this is not just going to spread covid tbh but I don't really think it's even about that for them any more. There's even reports of rescue workers in an earthquake having to take a covid test before they could rescue anyone
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
COVID Rules Are Hindering Earthquake Rescue Work in China
Rescuers must submit to daily COVID tests while residents have been prevented from leaving homes in some quake-hit areas
time.com
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
The logic of it all reminds me of the tactics of the trench warfare in WW1...if it's not working do more of it
It's this stupid obsession with 'face'. They were so quick to declare victory over covid in the early stages, they now cannot seem in any way be seen to have got it wrong.
Remember those images of pool parties in Wuhan back in August 2020 while the rest of the world was still mid-pandemic and mostly locked down? They were very happy to let the world know how much better they handled the pandemic and all criticisms were just "sour grapes" and "strict preventive measures have a payback" (literally the words of the Global Times state mouthpiece).
Now it the total opposite. The rest of the world is out living with Covid, clubbing, partying, having a world cup etc, and China has gone full authoritarian lockdown hysteria. They change course now, they undermine all their bragging back in 2020. They can't even bring themselves to show images of maskless crowds at the World Cup. The CCP are total scumbags.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Any views on why they are sticking with Sinovac instead of buying one or more of the mRNA ones? I am sure us the Germans or the Americans would happily sell them factories as we love a bit of technology transfer for Chinese cash.
The leadership must know they will need the more effective protection of modern vacines if they are to be able to move on whilst minimising deaths.
The leadership must know they will need the more effective protection of modern vacines if they are to be able to move on whilst minimising deaths.
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