i am completely fucking undecided
Leavers on the 'left' - Main arguments and analysis please...
- Thread starter Treacle Toes
- Start date
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I am probably going to abstain or spoil my ballot paper unless someone can give me a complelling reason to vote which nobody really has. I started out wanting to vote leave but the pro leave 'lexit' arguments do seem overly optimistic and unconvincing, i dont think all the remain voters are 'liberals' a lot are seriously worried about their jobs or loved ones who are eu nationals and to mind its as patronising to dismiss them as liberals than to dismiss leavers as UKIP style racists. I will see how i feel on the day which is a terrible way to decide.
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
I'm pretty sure that's my old flatmate from university
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Having said all that, we've just talked about it at work (whilst the liberals were away) and the undecided/Brexit quiet voters are all turning Remain.
I've said it'll be 60-40 Remain for a while now. I think this is over.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
you maybe right though. I don't even want to guess at this point. a high turnout and a 10% lead would be pretty emphatic tho
Yeah a couple of friends who have previously been pretty pro-leave have changed their minds in the last few days. Not because of any change in views just that they have become worried about their jobs and livelihood. I guess Project Fear 2.0 is starting to find its targets to an extent.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
There is no compelling reason to exit from a left wing perspective, despite the theoretical nonsense you've read here.
The hope that it'll disrupt business and capital long enough for the left to take advantage somehow ... sooner or later ... by doing something ... (they're not sure what) ... big fucking deal.
Meanwhile UKIP and the like, buoyed with success, reinvent themselves as anti ALL immigration (the notion that they'll declare "job done", shut up shop, and fuck off, is utterly ludicrous) and apply pressure to make the country even more insular and less welcoming to foreigners.
That will happen, and the left is offering absolutely nothing to make it worthwhile.
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Lenny Kravitz Sings Tautologically For You
Cid
Proper break this time
Not reflected in the polls. Remain seems to be edging at the moment, but by 1% or so.
That seemed to happen in the Scottish indy ref.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Through history across the world, it's what has tended to happen in most referendums - the 'no change' option generally out-performs even the most favourable poll predictions. I see every reason why this poll will follow that pattern, so for leave to stand a chance, it needed to be well ahead in the polls.
I wonder if Farage will quit over this, if the vote goes against him?
By quit, i mean not quit and in fact go against his principles entirely.
By quit, i mean not quit and in fact go against his principles entirely.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Nah.
He'll be perfectly placed to capitalise on a pissed off and disenfranchised 30% odd of the electorate whilst the Tories and Labour are busy squabbling amongst themselves.
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
Farage was saying a week ago he might even 'quit politics' in event of a leave! Regardless, there's going to be internal fighting to come anyway inside UKIP between Farage and Carswell if not others.
I reckon Farage is loving every minute of this. He reckons he's probably on a win/win. Either they get a leave victory or a close loss in which case he's probably eyeing up loads of disaffected voters who could flock to him and UKIP.
Only a substantial remain vote could ruin his fun.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
And I think the campaigners seem to be preaching to their converted followers at the moment in an effort to ensure their vote gets out tomorrow. The Big BBC debate last night had 50% leave 50% remainers - what about the don't knowers? - Mind you how they could identify and target don't knowers at the moment I don't know 
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
And I think the campaigners seem to be preaching to their converted followers at the moment in an effort to ensure their vote gets out tomorrow. The Big BBC debate last night had 50% leave 50% remainers - what about the don't knowers? - Mind you how they could identify and target don't knowers at the moment I don't know
I don't really buy this 'preaching to their converted' tbh. It's not like a general election where people have a certain affinity with a party and its core politics/principles. I'm leave but the official Leave campaign isn't 'preaching to the converted' in me at all because I don't stand for a lot of the prevailing narrative coming out of it (e.g. 'sovereignty', 'immigration'). Likewise, I have friends who are voting remain who also recognise the big problems in the EU and of neoliberalism and don't feel especially connected to the official Remain campaign either. People aren't 'converted', they're just going for what they feel is the best option in a pretty shit choice.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Yes, I accept that this is the position for a lot of people and certainly a lot of people aren't voting on party lines, most especially on the tory side of the fence.
But in a general election the parties would have already written off a lot of voters for example those in constituencies which are their opponents strongholds and would not be expending any effort to reach them because their votes would not count toward the election of an MP.
This referendum is different, every vote counts in every constituency. Even if 80% in an area vote one way, the remaining 20% will count toward the overall result and could be the difference needed.
I am not 100% sure what the implications of that are, but I am sure there are some.
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
I wonder how many of the 'don't knows' are basically: 'don't give a shit' or 'fuck whats on offer' when polled. And so, they're not neccessarily going to be converted to anything.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I wonder if the pollsters now ask if someone has a polling card before putting them down as a don't know?
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I'm a "don't know" for both ipsos and YouGov and they both ask me stuff like how certain am I to vote, did I vote in the general election, what time am I planning to vote and stuff like that.
They both have me as a definite and early voter still in the "don't know" camp.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
That is good to know, that they are trying to be thorough.
But as for you chilango
you are leaving it to the very last minute!!Do you not have an idea which way you will go?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Hah! So was I, so my predictions of a Remain win should probably be seen in that light too.Yeah, really at this point Brexit would need a clear (and growing) 5-10% lead to stand any chance imho.
It's over, and it's not even going to be close.
Of course I was equally confident that Labour were going to win in 2015 so, frankly, what do Iknow?
ska invita
back on the other side
That was attempt to bribe voters who hate him! It even worked to some extent
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
That is good to know, that they are trying to be thorough.
But as for you chilango
Do you not have an idea which way you will go?
Yes, I do. I'll probably vote Remain. But I can't be sure till I've actually done it. Whatever I do I will be pretty unhappy about it.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I've only just realised on reading this that YouGov haven't asked me about Brexit straight. They keep asking me if an rUK Leave vote will change my mind about Scottish Independence (no, it wouldn't), but not if and how i'm going to vote in the referendum. Which is odd.
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