Leavers on the 'left' - Main arguments and analysis please...

[beesonthewhatnow]

if the conclusion for some is that the best we can realistically achieve for the left and the working class is EU neoliberalism (that is on a constant shift away from social/worker rights towards more market/economic liberalism) with the occasional bit of reformism, then that's a depressing thought and shows a terrible lack of confidence and radical fight.

I'd say it shows a depressing amount of realism

 

[danny la rouge]

Is there much talk about another referendum for independence in light of a Leave vote?

Well, in the Scottish media and by activists.

It will be interesting to see how Sturgeon would handle a Scotland-votes-Remain-rUK-votes-Leave scenario (if that means a UK majority for Leave. Indeed, if it's a slim rUK Leave vote but a strong enough Scottish Remain vote to tip the overall balance to Remain, that could be interesting, too). There are a number of ways this could play out. But that's for another thread.

However, as a topic your barber would bring up? Not really.

 

[two sheds]

I don't understand why UKIP would wither away with a Leave win. I'd have thought it would validate and strengthen them. They'll assume that they have the voice of the country and people voted to leave primarily to say no to immigration.

Immigration won't stop with a Leave as they've been promised so they'll get even more angry and active and extreme.

Not an argument for Leave so ignore it if required.

 

[danny la rouge]

Further to danny la rouge's point about "no-one talking about it", I'd echo that in part.

The only people I hear regularly talking about irl are m/c liberals building themselves up into a panic. The m/c Brexiters I know don't bring it up so much and the w/c people I know tend to be a lot more dismissive of the whole charade.

Where is that, chilango? Maybe there's a regional effect?

 

[Biscuitician]

We're already "at their mercy", so what's new?

Right, but doesn't the EU, for all its faults and authority, give us some protection? I know it's far FAR from ideal, but without even that, our government is going to go full tilt and take everything. At least those things that the brexit tories whine about give us some, admittedly scant, protection - otherwise they'd have nothing to complain about.

 

[danny la rouge]

Right, but doesn't the EU, for all its faults and authority, give us some protection? I know it's far FAR from ideal, but without even that, our government is going to go full tilt and take everything. At least those things that the brexit tories whine about give us some, admittedly scant, protection - otherwise they'd have nothing to complain about.

I suppose the question is: why aren't Cameron and the CBI whining about them?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

It will be interesting to see how Sturgeon would handle a Scotland-votes-Remain-rUK-votes-Leave scenario

Scotland then vote to leave the UK, Wales follow, tory rule for England until the sun swallows up our solar system.

 

[YouSir]

I don't understand why UKIP would wither away with a Leave win. I'd have thought it would validate and strengthen them. They'll assume that they have the voice of the country and people voted to leave primarily to say no to immigration.

Immigration won't stop with a Leave as they've been promised so they'll get even more angry and active and extreme.

Not an argument for Leave so ignore it if required.

Whatever happened to UKIP its support would change. They've 'borrowed' a lot of traditional Tory and Labour voters, how they'd react after a Leave vote I've no idea. Far from guaranteed that they'd stick with a UKIP that repositions itself as what is really is though - Tory B Team. Losing that core issue of evil EU would definitely change things.

 

[inva]

but without even that, our government is going to go full tilt and take everything.

no it isn't.

 

[chilango]

Where is that, chilango? Maybe there's a regional effect?

Reading mostly (but also Bristol, North Wales and other places I spend time).

Obviously most everyone is aware of the referendum and and has their views on it, but its not a subject for daily conversation except for the frothing liberals.

My parents, committed Brexiters both and always keen to try and goad me into a row about politics have only mentioned it once once or twice.

At work, it's really only mentioned in passing, and then by the liberals worrying.

Down the pub, we have't really talked about it much. A couple are Labour/Remain activists (afaik) but other than them and a braying Tory boy Brexiter that I had the misfortune to chat to the other week I've no real idea how people there are voting.

 

[YouSir]

I suppose the question is: why aren't Cameron and the CBI whining about them?

Important point. Heard plenty about our terrible government running riot without the EU there to hold them back, not much about why that same government is largely backing Remain.

 

[Biscuitician]

no it isn't.

Sure they are, they are. They've all but privatised the NHS, they want prisons privatised, schools privatised, student loans sold off to debt collectors, welfare privatised, workers rights ever more crushed, strikes banned, etc etc.

 

[Biscuitician]

I suppose the question is: why aren't Cameron and the CBI whining about them?

At a guess, because what they gain or perceive they gain, from being within the EU is more important to them. Cameron is hardly a genius, and the CBI just care about profit and big business. So the profit lost from not curtailing workers rights, to put it simply, is more than made up for by what they gain trading in the EU and exploiting workers from and across the continent.

 

[Biscuitician]

Important point. Heard plenty about our terrible government running riot without the EU there to hold them back, not much about why that same government is largely backing Remain.

I doubt it's so lurid in reality as you imply; they would just have a slightly easier time without the bureaucracy of the EU tying them up. That doesn't mean they won't try and get round it to achieve the same aims.

I'm not saying that the difference in outcomes is vast, far from it. But however slight it's still a factor I think.

 

[inva]

Sure they are, they are. They've all but privatised the NHS, they want prisons privatised, schools privatised, student loans sold off to debt collectors, welfare privatised, workers rights ever more crushed, strikes banned, etc etc.

thank god for the eu's protections eh?

so you don't reckon that the social expectations built on past victories and the struggle of people today to fight back against cuts etc has anything to do with it? it's just the eu saving us all.

 

[danny la rouge]

At a guess, because what they gain or perceive they gain, from being within the EU is more important to them. Cameron is hardly a genius, and the CBI just care about profit and big business. So the profit lost from not curtailing workers rights, to put it simply, is more than made up for by what they gain trading in the EU and exploiting workers from and across the continent.

Exactly, so not a ringing endorsement for the EU's protection for workers.

 

[JimW]

I keep hearing 'leavers on the left' to the tune of 'groovers in the house'.

 

[redsquirrel]

Scotland then vote to leave the UK, Wales follow, tory rule for England until the sun swallows up our solar system.

I'm trying not to post on this thread as it should really be closed/merged with one of the other two but this idea that Wales is Remain (let allow that that translates in pro-independence) is simply rubbish.

Three Wales polls this year (all YouGov)
Date Remain Leave
30 May – 2 June 2016 41% 41%
7–11 April 2016 38% 39%
9–11 February 2016 37% 45%

 

[Biscuitician]

thank god for the eu's protections eh?

so you don't reckon that the social expectations built on past victories and the struggle of people today to fight back against cuts etc has anything to do with it? it's just the eu saving us all.

I didn't say that, or anything like it.

But, while I fully support the fight against austerity and grassroots/working class efforts to oust the tories, they have not been successful over all. What victories have been scored have been, with the greatest of respect, minor. The Tories are still in power, now as a (albeit weak) majority - that's after five years of a Tory-led unprecedented assault. I think groups like DPAC, UK Uncut, and so forth, are amazing.

But the reality remains, and they have not succeeded. IDS wasn't ousted because of brave disability campaigners (and they fucking well are), but because of political expediency and opportunism. He relented on nothing, and here we are with ESA cut for new claimants (in 2017) by 30%, the bedroom tax still rampant, the punishing environment of the DWP, etc etc.

IDS was offered millions by the EU to help those affected by cuts. He and Cameron rejected it. All I'm saying is that the difference between being in and out is that offer would never have been made. That might well seem a pathetic difference to point out, but it gives those campaigning something to work with. Surely that has to count for something.

 

[Biscuitician]

Exactly, so not a ringing endorsement for the EU's protection for workers.

It was never intended as a ringing endorsement. As I've said: it's something. There are no good choices in this referendum, either way the working class is left with fuck all.

 

[inva]

I didn't say that, or anything like it.

yes you fucking did:
"but without even that, our government is going to go full tilt and take everything"
where's the working class in that?

 

[SpineyNorman]

Sure they are, they are. They've all but privatised the NHS, they want prisons privatised, schools privatised, student loans sold off to debt collectors, welfare privatised, workers rights ever more crushed, strikes banned, etc etc.

But the EU is just as committed to that stuff - it's written into it's constitution - so why haven't they done it already?

 

[Biscuitician]

yes you fucking did:
"but without even that, our government is going to go full tilt and take everything"
where's the working class in that?

Where's the working class in what? I don't understand your question.

 

[Biscuitician]

But the EU is just as committed to that stuff - it's written into it's constitution - so why haven't they done it already?

I don't know. I don't have all the answers.

 

[mk12]

Liberal remain strikes me as asking us to pass up a rare opportunity to damage one of the key institutions of the neoliberal order out of fear of a marginally worse iteration of what we're getting already, and while a reasonable prognosis, no conclusive argument that even that would be the case.

I think that's far too kind to the liberal remain camp. Most liberal remainers that I have come across are pro-EU simply because they've benefitted from things like the free movement of labour. They have no real criticisms to make of the EU.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I don't know. I don't have all the answers.

I'll tell you then. Because we won't let them. That doesn't change if we leave the eu. I don't trust the eu to do it for me, especially as it's openly in favour of all that I oppose. We'll do it ourselves. I want it out of the way because then there's only the one government pushing it through instead of two.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I'm not voting in the referendum by the way.

 

[mk12]

I'll tell you then. Because we won't let them. That doesn't change if we leave the eu. I don't trust the eu to do it for me, especially as it's openly in favour of all that I oppose. We'll do it ourselves. I want it out of the way because then there's only the one government pushing it through instead of two.

Basically, loads of liberal remainers don't trust people in the UK to vote the right way, so they are happy to cede power and responsibility to unelected liberals in Brussels (or wherever they meet now).

 

[inva]

Where's the working class in what? I don't understand your question.

in what i've quoted you've said there's only the right wing technocrats of the eu holding back the tory tide. it's not true. you said you haven't erased the resistance of working class people so I asked where it is in your formulation.

 

[Biscuitician]

I'm not voting in the referendum by the way.

I'm also considering abstention, but I don't feel comfortable about it. That's because I feel I'm copping out somehow. No, I doubt that makes much sense to anyone. I don't expect it to.

I'll tell you then. Because we won't let them. That doesn't change if we leave the eu. I don't trust the eu to do it for me, especially as it's openly in favour of all that I oppose. We'll do it ourselves. I want it out of the way because then there's only the one government pushing it through instead of two.

That's great, and I agree with you. But in reality, we have let them, and for the last five years. I really didn't expect the Tories to win the election last year, I felt sure that at best it would be a hung parliament. But here we are.