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Lambeth Council elections 2022

BusLanes said:
So I think this is the list of wards where I am seeing/hearing signs of campaigning by more than one party, there are more that could be added if one includes places Labour seems to put a bit of effort in but no one else.

Clapham Abbeville, Clapham Town, Myatts Field, Waterloo and South Bank, Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction, Brixton North, Brixton Windrush, West Dulwich, Gipsy Hill, Streatham Wells, St Leonard's, Streatham Hill West and Thornton and Streatham Hill East.

Of that list presumably most are not genuine risks for Labour but it isn't quite clear to me exactly which are which.
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I wouldn't put money on any of these but Old Rabbie's Almanac predictions on some very limited knowledge would be:

Clapham Abbeville - Three way fight - 1 incumbent Tory (Tim Briggs), 2 incumbent Labour, but Lib Dems have been running guerrilla campaign for some time. Too close to call
Clapham Town - Labour being challenged by Tories - probably Labour hold with reduced majority
Myatts Field Labour but some Green activity in part of former Coldharbour - Labour hold
Waterloo and South Bank - Labour being challenged by Lib Dems - no sign of Tories - probable Labour hold with reduced majority?
Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction - Labour being strongly challenged by Greens, but Labour campaigning seriously. Too close to call
Brixton North - Labour being challenged by Greens who have a surprisingly strong campaign. Labour hold
Brixton Windrush - Labour being challenged by Greens in what was their better part of former Coldharbour ward. Labour hold with reduced majority?
West Dulwich - Don't know much about on the ground campaigning - Lib Dems have done well in past in former Thurlow Park ward. Labour hold.
Gipsy Hill - Labour being strongly challenged by Greens - minimal Tory campaign, no Lib Dem campaign. Possible Green gain?
Streatham Wells - Labour being challenged by Lib Dems - probably Labour hold with reduced majority
St Leonard's - 3 Green councillors being challenged by Corbynite Labour candidates (?!?) No sign of Tory or Lib Dem campaign Green hold?
Streatham Hill West and Thornton - Labour being strongly challenged by Lib Dems. Former Thornton ward had two close fought by-elections in 2019. No sign of Tories. Possible Lib Dem gain?
Streatham Hill East - Labour being challenged by Tories on anti-LTN ticket Probably Labour hold with reduced majority

For anyone wanting to see a larger opposition on the council, but not to risk boosting the Tories, my suggested tactical votes would be:
Clapham Abbeville - Lib Dem
Clapham Town - Labour or NV
Myatts Field - Green
Waterloo and South Bank - Lib Dem
Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction - Green
Brixton North - Green,
Brixton Windrush - Green
West Dulwich - Lib Dem
Gipsy Hill - Green
Streatham Wells - Lib Dem
St Leonard's - Green
Streatham Hill West and Thornton - Lib Dem
Streatham Hill East - Labour or NV.
 
Thanks for the suggestion. Sadly, I have neither printer nor proxy! Hopefully the Greens will manage without me....
 
lang rabbie said:
I wouldn't put money on any of these but Old Rabbie's Almanac predictions on some very limited knowledge would be:

Clapham Abbeville - Three way fight - 1 incumbent Tory (Tim Briggs), 2 incumbent Labour, but Lib Dems have been running guerrilla campaign for some time. Too close to call
Clapham Town - Labour being challenged by Tories - probably Labour hold with reduced majority
Myatts Field Labour but some Green activity in part of former Coldharbour - Labour hold
Waterloo and South Bank - Labour being challenged by Lib Dems - no sign of Tories - probable Labour hold with reduced majority?
Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction - Labour being strongly challenged by Greens, but Labour campaigning seriously. Too close to call
Brixton North - Labour being challenged by Greens who have a surprisingly strong campaign. Labour hold
Brixton Windrush - Labour being challenged by Greens in what was their better part of former Coldharbour ward. Labour hold with reduced majority?
West Dulwich - Don't know much about on the ground campaigning - Lib Dems have done well in past in former Thurlow Park ward. Labour hold.
Gipsy Hill - Labour being strongly challenged by Greens - minimal Tory campaign, no Lib Dem campaign. Possible Green gain?
Streatham Wells - Labour being challenged by Lib Dems - probably Labour hold with reduced majority
St Leonard's - 3 Green councillors being challenged by Corbynite Labour candidates (?!?) No sign of Tory or Lib Dem campaign Green hold?
Streatham Hill West and Thornton - Labour being strongly challenged by Lib Dems. Former Thornton ward had two close fought by-elections in 2019. No sign of Tories. Possible Lib Dem gain?
Streatham Hill East - Labour being challenged by Tories on anti-LTN ticket Probably Labour hold with reduced majority

For anyone wanting to see a larger opposition on the council, but not to risk boosting the Tories, my suggested tactical votes would be:
Clapham Abbeville - Lib Dem
Clapham Town - Labour or NV
Myatts Field - Green
Waterloo and South Bank - Lib Dem
Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction - Green
Brixton North - Green,
Brixton Windrush - Green
West Dulwich - Lib Dem
Gipsy Hill - Green
Streatham Wells - Lib Dem
St Leonard's - Green
Streatham Hill West and Thornton - Lib Dem
Streatham Hill East - Labour or NV.
Click to expand...
aren't you a lib dem activist?
 
...reason I ask is that you're recommending voting Lib Dem in Clapham Common and claim it's a 'three way marginal', but the Lib Dems got around 10% in 2018 and it's basically a Labour/Tory marginal with a chance of turfing out a tory?

1651746720253.png
 
killer b said:
...reason I ask is that you're recommending voting Lib Dem in Clapham Common and claim it's a 'three way marginal', but the Lib Dems got around 10% in 2018 and it's basically a Labour/Tory marginal with a chance of turfing out a tory?
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And that was why I specifically phrased my recommendations as "For anyone wanting to see a larger opposition on the council, but not to risk boosting the Tories, my suggested tactical votes would be:

There is already a Tory there, but his bizarre single issue fanaticism on LTNs and some culture wars poses do not seem to be doing him much good in a seat that is part of the "liberal metropolitan elite", so I think the chance of the Tories gaining the other seat in the slimmed down two member ward are minimal.

There are too many mediocre Labour councillors in this borough already.
 
lang rabbie said:
And that was why I specifically phrased my recommendations as "For anyone wanting to see a larger opposition on the council, but not to risk boosting the Tories, my suggested tactical votes would be:
Click to expand...
But voting Lib Dem in a Lab/Tory marginal risks boosting the Tories. And it definitely isn't a three way marginal, except in the wild fiction you often find in Lib Dem election literature.
 
killer b said:
But voting Lib Dem in a Lab/Tory marginal risks boosting the Tories.
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I don't think Boris Johnson will give a flying fart whether Lambeth has one, two or nil Tories in Clapham Common and Abbeville.

And please note my recommendation to vote Labour in those wards where Tories are challenging on LTNs - I certainly don't want to boost that campaign.
 
lang rabbie said:
I don't think Boris Johnson will give a flying fart whether Lambeth has one, two or nil Tories in Clapham Common and Abbeville.

And please note my recommendation to vote Labour in those wards where Tories are challenging on LTNs - I certainly don't want to boost that campaign.
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I'm noting your recommendation to vote Lib Dem in a ward where they (you?) don't have the faintest chance of winning, and it's normally a close fight between Labour and the Tories - apparently the sitting Tory councillor is fanatical about LTNs, so it seems odd you'd want to boost the Tory campaign there, which is all telling people to vote Lib Dem to give Lambeth Labour a bloody nose will do.
 
"Normally" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there - if your perspective is only the two election cycles since Lib Dem local councillors were swept away in 2014 in gripes about the coalition. Clapham Common ward elected Lib Dem councillors 2002-2014 (alongside Ruth Ling who was Clapham Nationalist first, Labour second).
 
lang rabbie said:
"Normally" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there - if your perspective is only the two election cycles since Lib Dem local councillors were swept away in 2014 in gripes about the coalition. Clapham Common ward elected Lib Dem councillors 2002-2014 (alongside Ruth Ling who was Clapham Nationalist first, Labour second).
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It's not doing as much heavy lifting as your claim it's currently a three way marginal when the last time they went to the polls your guys got a thousand less votes than the winners.
 
Anyway, people should vote as they please, but if you're actively campaigning for a political party, presenting your 'analysis' as some kind of sober & balanced guide to tactical voting is pretty cheeky.
 
lang rabbie said:
"Normally" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there - if your perspective is only the two election cycles since Lib Dem local councillors were swept away in 2014 in gripes about the coalition.
Click to expand...
And I'd say the word 'gripes' is also doing quite a lot of work in your comment. I foolishly voted Lib Dem in 2010 not knowing I was actually voting-in a Tory government which then proceeded to cut 60% of the funding of the local authority I was working for. More fool me. 2014 was simply the response of the people who'd been duped - we won't be fooled again!
 
Apparently turn out of less than 200 in my ward of about 2000 at 6pm.
No campaigning today or in the lead up.
Polling station situated in the middle of Cressingham, an inadvertent statement on the state of affairs.
 
nagapie said:
Apparently turn out of less than 200 in my ward of about 2000 at 6pm.
No campaigning today or in the lead up.
Polling station situated in the middle of Cressingham, an inadvertent statement on the state of affairs.
Click to expand...

I would believe that. Mine was about that at 130 and it's the main Tulse Hill Estate one.
 
lang rabbie said:
I wouldn't put money on any of these but Old Rabbie's Almanac predictions on some very limited knowledge would be:

Clapham Abbeville - Three way fight - 1 incumbent Tory (Tim Briggs), 2 incumbent Labour, but Lib Dems have been running guerrilla campaign for some time. Too close to call
Clapham Town - Labour being challenged by Tories - probably Labour hold with reduced majority
Myatts Field Labour but some Green activity in part of former Coldharbour - Labour hold
Waterloo and South Bank - Labour being challenged by Lib Dems - no sign of Tories - probable Labour hold with reduced majority?
Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction - Labour being strongly challenged by Greens, but Labour campaigning seriously. Too close to call
Brixton North - Labour being challenged by Greens who have a surprisingly strong campaign. Labour hold
Brixton Windrush - Labour being challenged by Greens in what was their better part of former Coldharbour ward. Labour hold with reduced majority?
West Dulwich - Don't know much about on the ground campaigning - Lib Dems have done well in past in former Thurlow Park ward. Labour hold.
Gipsy Hill - Labour being strongly challenged by Greens - minimal Tory campaign, no Lib Dem campaign. Possible Green gain?
Streatham Wells - Labour being challenged by Lib Dems - probably Labour hold with reduced majority
St Leonard's - 3 Green councillors being challenged by Corbynite Labour candidates (?!?) No sign of Tory or Lib Dem campaign Green hold?
Streatham Hill West and Thornton - Labour being strongly challenged by Lib Dems. Former Thornton ward had two close fought by-elections in 2019. No sign of Tories. Possible Lib Dem gain?
Streatham Hill East - Labour being challenged by Tories on anti-LTN ticket Probably Labour hold with reduced majority

For anyone wanting to see a larger opposition on the council, but not to risk boosting the Tories, my suggested tactical votes would be:
Clapham Abbeville - Lib Dem
Clapham Town - Labour or NV
Myatts Field - Green
Waterloo and South Bank - Lib Dem
Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction - Green
Brixton North - Green,
Brixton Windrush - Green
West Dulwich - Lib Dem
Gipsy Hill - Green
Streatham Wells - Lib Dem
St Leonard's - Green
Streatham Hill West and Thornton - Lib Dem
Streatham Hill East - Labour or NV.
Click to expand...

Thanks for this good analysis.

I voted before I read it. I voted tactically on basis of anyone but Labour. So voted Green.

I voted late evening. My name was crossed out on the list. Looks to me like a low turnout. As always was the case in the old Coldharbour Ward.

This largely goes unremarked. With my jobs for life Labour Cllrs thinking they have a mandate. Based on very low turnout.

Abstention from voting is a problem across democracies. This good article from Guardian says that the "none of the the above" non voters should be taken seriously. The recent French election left voter with really crap choice.

A lot of people I work with don't vote as they think it doesn't make a difference. "They do what they want anyway" view. So why vote.

Given the the Corbyn interlude has ended and its back to Starmer the sensible centrist Dad politician I think the comparison with the French election is valid.

My only reason for voting was to try to stick two finger up against the establishment politicians. Im not interested in Labour or Tories. Not that I see myself as that radical.

www.theguardian.com

When voters abstain, France takes notice – the UK should learn to do the same | Oliver Haynes

In a moment of humility, Emmanuel Macron sent an important message about maintaining trust in democracy, says journalist Oliver Haynes
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Taking abstentionists seriously is key – especially in an age where voters feel alienated by politics. A recent report on attitudes towards democracy from the IPPR thinktank found that just 6% of voters in Britain think their views are the main influence on government policy, and 55% of 18- to 24-year-olds believe democracy serves them badly. This chimes with Peter Mair’s classic work of political science, Ruling the Void, which showed that as parties come to resemble each other more closely and disconnect themselves from a mass base, abstention increases.
Click to expand...
 
Im not sure comparison between French presidential elections & local elections works. I’m sure there’s some abstention for local elections but most is prob more apathy or lack of awareness.

Also think for a lot partygate etc reflects badly on all politicians rather than just the Tories - hence the Daily Mail spending the last week on Starmer’s ‘beergate’.
 
The thing is, ‘they’re all the same and there is no point in my voting’ is essentially a position for the conservatives, since being both immoral and in government they can afford to buy votes (e.g. Ballot rigging is so last year. There are now new ways of buying votes | Nick Cohen ) and the left has to inspire people to actually get out there. I am old and cynical but still radical and dont plan on missing an election if I can help it. Although it does rankle, usually being on the losing side.
 
I see Lambeth are getting a move on as always - the election results page says
  • Status: Not started
Most of the country has declared overnight - yet Lambeth continues to behave as though it is a rural constituency.
 
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