Kim Jong il dead (ish)

[Gingerman]

BEHOLD!

The Third Antichrist.

He's got his dad's good looks I see needs to do more work on the hair to reach his old man's standard,now we know why there's food shortages in NK,fat boy's eaten it all.

 

[Apathy]

Jung-un is an unknown quantity, I'll grant you. But he's also Jong-il's chosen and groomed successor.

such a person is bound to be a bit deluded and slightly dangerous

 

[ymu]

I don't think so. I see no reason whatever why the North would attack the South. Such a thing was extremely unlikely before and remains extremely unlikely.

Jung-un is an unknown quantity, I'll grant you. But he's also Jong-il's chosen and groomed successor.

Kim Jong Il was announced as the successor twenty years before Kim Il Sung died. Kim Jong Un's succession was only announced a couple of years ago - this death was very unexpected. Maintaining a hereditary 'communist' dictatorship is a tricky business, and they haven't had time to prepare for this succession in the way they did the first one. This is entirely unknown territory.

Sabre-rattling will inevitably be part of the transition as he tries to step into those shoes. I agree that it's unlikely to go further than that, but it's a very unstable situation.

 

[Spymaster]

to be honest, if britain was internationally isolated and despised by the outside world, which the majority of its people had had little to no contact with, i could imagine similar reactions taking place here, regardless of what we privately thought of our "great leaders".

That's quite some imagination you have there, Froggie!

 

[Jeff Robinson]

The Sun went with:

North Koreans collapse in grief at tyrant's death

Disapointing, think of all the fun they could've had: Kim Gone Il, Next of Kim, Son takes over Kimdom, Dictator reaches end of his Korea....

 

[DotCommunist]

lets see what the iron lolzhiemer gets by way of public outpouring eh

 

[ViolentPanda]

Sorry, I don't see the logic. Kim Jong-il dies (something North Korea has been preparing for for ages) and suddenly NK becomes belligerent and attacks the South? Why?

It's called "jockeying for position".

 

[ViolentPanda]

I was with some Chinese university students today and they were very excited about the news. I do think this pretty much is in China's hands now, although I don't see them wanting to do anything particularly sinister, why would they want to get involved with a disaster like NK. I'm sure they want it to keep ticking over nicely and not cause any problems.

One thing I suspect China would very much like to do is put an end to the refugee problem arising from people fleeing the DPRK, though.

 

[elbows]

Kim Jong Il was announced as the successor twenty years before Kim Il Sung died. Kim Jong Un's succession was only announced a couple of years ago - this death was very unexpected. Maintaining a hereditary 'communist' dictatorship is a tricky business, and they haven't had time to prepare for this succession in the way they did the first one. This is entirely unknown territory.

Well yes and no. I think his health has been questionable since mid 2008, and so they've only had a few years to prepare, not as long as they would have liked. But I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say the death was unexpected, not considering the stroke stories of 2008 and cancer stories of 2009. I know that the likes of Castro taught us to be careful about health rumours, but it seems quite plausible that they've had three and a half years to prepare for this. Not that the length of time to prepare is the only important feature, whether there is anybody else within the regime who might like to take power is another significant factor, I believe there were some rumours about his brother-in-law possibly being keen on seizing power.

 

[frogwoman]

One thing I suspect China would very much like to do is put an end to the refugee problem arising from people fleeing the DPRK, though.

how much of a problem is that? i thought the borders were kept more or less sealed except for people who had the party's permission?

 

[JimW]

how much of a problem is that? i thought the borders were kept more or less sealed except for people who had the party's permission?

Significant but not actually at crisis levels as I understand it, and offset by the number of Chinese ethnic Koreans who end up in the ROK: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koreans_in_China Shit for the refugees themselves, of course.

 

[ViolentPanda]

how much of a problem is that? i thought the borders were kept more or less sealed except for people who had the party's permission?

China's borders are sealed, but "sealed" is relative, hence some of their problems in Western China with Uighur activists/militants from Central Asia crossing the border and stirring up their Chinese ethnic counterparts. IIRC the number of border crossers from DPRK to PRC is in the tens of thousands per year, and that's just the ones they know about.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Through China is the main escape route - eventual destination South Korea. Anyone caught is sent back by the Chinese. There are millions of ethnic Koreans in China, though, and there are escape networks set up.

tbh, everyone is apprehensive about a flood of NK refugees, including the south, whose official position is that they are all welcome.

 

[JimW]

Some horror stories about what happens to DPRK refugees who make it to the north-east, as of course you're ripe for exploitation.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Indeed. I read a story of a woman who eventually made it to South Korea after five years as a forced 'wife' of a Chinese farmer - five years as a slave, basically.

The terrifying thing about the story was that compared to what she'd been through in Korea, the five years in China had been an improvement.

 

[frogwoman]

Some horror stories about what happens to DPRK refugees who make it to the north-east, as of course you're ripe for exploitation.

yes and i'd also imagine that like moldovans etc (although slightly less so now) many north koreans know very very little about the outside world ...

 

[frogwoman]

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article2729531.ece Just seen this article - dunno how true it is ...

The American scholar Patrick Chovanec, who visited some of North Korea's least-accessible regions last summer, wrote: “One thing that really surprised me was the number of luxury sedans and SUVs, brands like BMWs and Mercedes, on the city streets.” “Obviously,” he concluded, “somebody has cash.”
In North Korea, Kim Jong-il has left behind, formal power still lies with a caste of military officers and bureaucrats — but economic influence now rests with a new semi-legal merchant class. “North Korean society,” Dr. Lankov observed, “has become defined by one's relationship to money, not by one's relationship to the bureaucracy.
“Money talks,” and for better or worse, in North Korea, money talks ever louder.”

 

[JimW]

yes and i'd also imagine that like moldovans etc (although slightly less so now) many north koreans know very very little about the outside world ...

I read that quite a few can pick up Chinese telly, including the Korean language broadcasts from Yanbian, the ethnic Korean prefecture just over the Chinese side of the border, though of course that's not exactly a wart and all picture of the reality here. But otherwise, sure you're right.

 

[frogwoman]

what i'm getting at is that they're likely to have a very distorted view of life outside - either positive or negative - they are likely to not be very "savvy".

 

[JimW]

Would imagine that would be the case - the set of skills you need to survive in the DPRK aren't going to be anything like what you need in China, let alone anywhere even less similar.

 

[1%er]

The great leader & dear leader are gone. What will be the title of Kim Jong Un?

He only has small shoes to fill

 

[frogwoman]

I also imagine (but could be wrong) there's not much in the way of awareness about people-trafficking etc (and what there would be may be alongside a general programme of propaganda about the evils of the west, so people may be sceptical of it).

 

[MellySingsDoom]

Sorry to slightly de-rail this interesting and informative thread a bit - but here's a bit of old school NK animation for you:

 

[Captain Hurrah]

Until the late 1960s North Korea was outpacing the South economically, wasn't it?

Following Soviet formulas, then shifting towards models similar to the Chinese (partly the break with Khrushchev), post-war industrial development in DPRK was second only to Japan at one point. They already had some modern infrastructure previously established by the Japanese, then badly damaged during the war, but they received over half a billion dollars in aid from the socialist world bloc for reconstruction efforts as well as technical advice and skilled workers being sent to help. DPRK was also helped by being well-endowed with resources apart from petroleum.

In the war it is estimated that a bomb of one ton or more was dropped per head of the population. Population losses were between 11 and 15 %, with US planes grounded at one point as there were hardly any targets left worth bombing. From that starting point, and the political system aside, development was very impressive indeed.

 

[JimW]

Remember hearing here that people used to prefer stuff from the DPRK in the early years of the PRC as it was seen as the best quality - solid workmanship and good materials.

 

[_pH_]

fuck that shit, let's get funky

 

[Captain Hurrah]

 

[xes]

has this link been giggled at yet?

Was he mur-diddly-urdered?
http://benjaminfulford.net/

you have to pay to read the rest of it, so I may aswell post what you can read, to save you clicking on anything.

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il was murdered Saturday as part of a major power struggle in East Asia, according to Asian secret society sources and Japanese military intelligence. The murder of Kim was followed by a series of arrests of senior police officials in Japan linked to North Korea as well as the ouster of six CIA agents, the Japanese sources say. The death has left Yasuhiro Nakasone, the top North Korean and Rothschild agent in Japan, without a power base, Japanese underworld sources say. In North Korea, meanwhile, there is now a succession battle taking place between the Rothschild faction, who want to place their trained stooge Kim Jong Un in power and set up a Rothschild central bank versus a military clique that wants independence from Rothschild control, Rothschild and Japanese underworld sources say. The action is Asia is linked to a worldwide takedown of the satanic cabal that has been trying to create a global dictatorship.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Who'd pay to read that?

 

[TruXta]

Who'd pay to read that?

Nutters who like to feel important?